Recent content by Grasshopper

I'm not so sure Adventureboy has it wrong. I was just re-reading this thread and decided to chart out some play to see what it looks like. I play online and track everything. I selected one round at random. Really! What are the odds of selecting this round? The one round I absolutely most...

Muppet, Nynefingers and Sonny. Thanks for all the input on this. Read, and reread , the posts and watched the video. I think I get the concept on the independence thing but a bit confusing. I will continue chewing on it. I got the point on the calculation. Probability somewhere in the...

Guess I'm having some trouble getting my mind around the independence concept. Let me re-read your postings and chew on it. As I alluded to in my post there must be more to it than I calculated, if only because my actual results differ so radically from the calculated. Thanks for your...

Ok guys, part of the problem is that I did not adequately define string so we get the independence problem What I meant was a string starting anywhere in the defined fields of 30, 120 & 240 respectively. Assuming the probablility of losing is 49.1% (.0491) for all 3 problems #1 Occurrence of...

muppet & Sucker I looked at muppets work with a clear brain in the morning and a cup of coffee. Works for me. I was using this to compare against my actual results on series of Online games which I thought was giving me way to many losing streaks. Turns out I am only about 20% off expected...

This is more complicated than I thought. Using the above chart I can see I have an error right off the bat. The first row is incorrect. I will need to start out with the odds of losing once, the first string, as 53.7 and change everything. When I do that the chance of streak of 10 is .2% or 1...

muppet, Thanks. Your number is close to what I thought the probability should be but I can't seem to get there with any confidence. Your concept is pretty good, but I think more has to be done to convert from 1 in 933 to x in 30 by dividing 30/933 which then becomes 3.2%. I think you are...

Thank you. But, I am interested in how to get the math correct multiple streaks expected in multiple hands. Personally, I use Win 42.4%., Lose 49.1% and push 8.5% in my calculations which converts to a 53.7% win and 46.3% lose if you ignore pushes. Below is my Excel chart for this. I am...

I've edited this and added details to the question below to make it clearer. I've tried this several different ways with different results. In Blackjack, Assuming a 1% House Advantage.... --What is the probability of a 10 hand losing streak in 30 hands --Followed immediately by a 10 hand...

Checked it out. Really useful information. Thanks, again.

RJT, I agree 100% with you. Not only with you, but with all the other math out there including my own Expected Win/Loss Excel worksheets. However, after about 20,000 practice hands and about 8,000 online hands I keep getting pretty much the same actuals, plus or minus some variation, which...

I agree with RJT about bank. I have been working it for a few weeks now. Very hard to build up the bank, 3 steps forward-2.5 steps backward. I am using mini-martingale strategy and, at the same time, tracking each win or loss on an Excel spreadsheet and only starting the mini-martingale after...

Wow! You guys are good. I estimate a little over 1% of my hands are errors (that's the ones that I catch, "Darn, missed that, I shoulda ...."). Don't have stats on how many of the errors actually turn into wins. I would guess I would guess about 1/3, at least of the ones I could tell what...

RJT, Thanks for the info. I sort of figured what you said was true. But, with online games it is very easy to fear "the man behind curtain" those times when bad things happen. Not the same as when you actually watch the cards coming out of a deck I've played quite a few hands more and also...

Sorry, guess I didn't communicate well. Not the first time for that. You answered my question perfectly about being shut out and thank you. However, I was also commenting, on how different the online games were from real playing and not only because of the re-shuffle every hand...