Recent content by matt21

  1. M

    My final conclusion on card-counting

    Well, it's a shame that the message boards are going to be archived - but fair go, we are getting a free service here! I just also wanted to say thank you so much for providing this forum for such a long time. Like several others, I ahve to honestly say that ALL the valuable AP contacts I made...
  2. M

    If you want ExCAA:BC....

    I still remember buying mine for $200 cash from another AP at an airport. :grin:
  3. M

    Kelly-betting for FX trading

    Hey Avenger - I was making that italic statement in reference to my fx trading, rather than my BJ play. With this insight I will be able to risk more dollars per trade then I previously thought. Prior to this insight I would risk $100 per trade, regardless of what my reward-risk ratio was...
  4. M

    1 Year Anniversary

    Keep going Sleight! It's great to hear of someone making it!! You are my hero!
  5. M

    Kelly-betting for FX trading

    I managed to get in contact with Don Schlesinger and he was very prompt and very detailed in his response, which was great! His answer was in fact that using the formula of Edge% divided by Pay-off holds true even where the typical winning trade is less than the typical losing trade, such...
  6. M

    Is there any reason not to use KO over Hi-Lo in 6 deck games?

    Zengrifter, is a separate index also required if you switched from 6d to 4d? Logically, the less often that the counter needs to look at the discard tray in order to work out the TC conversion, the better - from a heat perspective.
  7. M

    Kelly-betting for FX trading

    ZG, Thunder, BJ Warrior and Blackjack Avenger - thanks for all your posts and comments - that's much appreciated. Right now, the FX trading is not providing my living - the casino games are doing that - however I am more or less working full-time on fx and equities trading, so I like to think...
  8. M

    Kelly-betting for FX trading

    Hey Thunder. Again I wanted to proceed on the assumption that the win rate, and the EV, is known. What I was perplexed about is how to apply the Kelly formula - I have tried to explain my confusion in the post above. Any thoughts?
  9. M

    Beating 6:5

    WABJ, get a hold of the Casino Verite software from QFIT and you'll be able to work this out. With CV you can adjust the game to 6:5 and experiment with different spreads. So that's all you should need. Though from memory of having looked at it this briefly in the past, you are not going to be...
  10. M

    Kelly-betting for FX trading

    Hey DDutton, I am assuming that I know what the +EV is. I need to do that in order to ask the question. You are of course right in pointing out that with the FX markets the probabilities are not certain as they are in casino games.
  11. M

    Kelly-betting for FX trading

    bump. I have a follow-up question here. I started this thread off with reference to the Kelly formula that states that the amount to be wagered on a bet or trade should be calculated by: Edge% / Odds. In this case odds refer to the amount of a winning payoff. Thus the higher the payoff...
  12. M

    Small Update

    Hey Sleight - I am really happy to hear that it's going well for ya! Isn't it great when you persist at something and it works out? I wish you all the best positive variance at 2/5, 5/10 and whatever else you might play. And I will definitely come out to LV and visit you - I'll expect you to...
  13. M

    My final conclusion on card-counting

    Hey Freightman, thanks for your post. You were quite spot on about some of the points you estimated! Yes I did put in quite a bit of preparation and study into card counting (I think this generally always pays off). Although on paper the playing style might not have looked aggressive I felt...
  14. M

    My final conclusion on card-counting

    Man I am glad that I am inspiring you guys - go out there and count - may positive variance be with you :)
  15. M

    How is everyone else's year going so far?

    I am up a little for the year too. :cool:
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