Bet spreads

#1
Could somebody help me out with figuring out a bet spread. Table minimums are five dollars and I have 1,000 to 2,000 dollars I am willing to play with. The game I play is six decks hit soft 17, double on anything, split four times, no resplit aces, no surrender. What should my spread be to beat this game? Also I know my bankroll is low so I would try to do a lot of back counting before playing and not playing negative counts.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#2
1-16 or 1-20. Bankroll is too small though, recognize you have a fairly high likelihood of tapping out. Back counting is essential.
 
#5
I'm prepared for that. I have money set aside that I don't mind risking, but I was reading that was kind of how the church team got started, guy started with 500 lost it and risked his other 500 and took off, so I am willing to try that until I am able to take off and build with it.
 
#7
From what I could tell it was somewhere between 1.25 and 1.5, the dealers were extremely sloppy because it was a busy night so they were in a hurry and would make mistakes.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#9
this chart should be able to help you decide spreads, for play all (at least give you an idea):

some-spreads-jpg.8990


note: again, i believe the assumption is that one has a ten grand bankroll
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#11
not sure how one might figure a trip risk of ruin, say one took $2,000 and played enough to risk it all, (dunno how many rounds that might be), sorta thing. would it be around five times the risk of ruin for the kelly bank? a circa 21% ROR for spreads in the neighborhood of 1-8, 1-12, 1-26 ?
 

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
#12
Ccrowder said:
Could somebody help me out with figuring out a bet spread. Table minimums are five dollars and I have 1,000 to 2,000 dollars I am willing to play with. The game I play is six decks hit soft 17, double on anything, split four times, no resplit aces, no surrender. What should my spread be to beat this game? Also I know my bankroll is low so I would try to do a lot of back counting before playing and not playing negative counts.
Regarding the low bank roll... you could always take the "Hail Mary" approach. That's how I got started. I built a low 6-figure BR from 3K. Play with a high RoR and hope you hit a nice positive variance streak.

I've mentioned this on other forums before; my BR was built do to sheer ignorance. When I first started, I was waaaayyyyyy over betting my BR. Of course, at the time, I had no idea. This was before I owned CVCX and participated on any forums. So my BR growth was the result of "dumb luck" I suppose. I started with 3K and was down to my last $500, then proceeded to go on a $33,500 win streak over the following 3 months. Once my BR hit 30K, I felt like I had something really worth protecting, so I made it a point to study hard and purchase software, read more books, etc. So that's how I acquired my "real" starting BR.

You can either grind it out with a low RoR for years... or try the "Hail Mary" approach with a much higher RoR and keep making those attempts until you hit a big streak. Then adjust your bets to maintain a low RoR from that point on. But it's all personal preference. But that's how I got started. Not saying it's ideal, but that's what got me g0ing.

Good luck
 

Zach Black

Active Member
#13
Ccrowder said:
I'm prepared for that. I have money set aside that I don't mind risking, but I was reading that was kind of how the church team got started, guy started with 500 lost it and risked his other 500 and took off, so I am willing to try that until I am able to take off and build with it.
Winning streaks happen and if you run hot it's possible you have a story like Ryemo's.

It's also possible that you go bust in one shoe. With splitting and double after split, one hand of $80 can become four hands of $160 and a loss of $640 in one hand. It's not uncommon to have high true counts and loose almost every hand in a shoe. You need to play the best games available and leave when the deck goes negative.
 

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#14
I strongly recommend against a 'hail mary' approach although you probably do want to bet full kelly or somewhere near it given the limited nature of your bankroll and the presumption that it is replaceable. Anything more than full kelly is couter-productive for the purposes of bankroll growth. It is never too early to start practicing sensible bankroll management. What's more, OP is still in the learning stages, so just playing at a casino, even with a negligible win rate from a low betting max, is valuable experience. Make the inevitable noob errors at a low betting level, but don't start developing bad habits that may cripple you later on in your career.
 
#15
All the above is great advice, winging in at TC+2. However, I sense that you are thinking beyond this to a full time career in BJ. This would be a HUGE mistake no different than dropping everything else to win America Got Talent or American idol.

As most would agree, the game today is unrecognizable when compared to what it was in the last century when all the legends (MIT team, Ed Thorp, Lawrence Revere) played. There are exceptions just like there are those who became pro NBA players but just as you would not want to pursue those careers, you should not be going after this.

And, f you are younger still, a profession like BJ means a lonely life. Go to school or learn another career, play this game as recreation.
 

stopgambling

Well-Known Member
#16
wong , wong and wong , there is practically no other way. Generally no one should care about your play at these stakes . Try to play aggressive to build up . When (after many months /even years ) you start to feel they care about your counting move on to somewhere else .
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#17
ZeeBabar said:
As most would agree, the game today is unrecognizable when compared to what it was in the last century when all the legends (MIT team, Ed Thorp, Lawrence Revere) played. There are exceptions just like there are those who became pro NBA players but just as you would not want to pursue those careers, you should not be going after this.

And, if you are younger still, a profession like BJ means a lonely life. Go to school or learn another career, play this game as recreation.
First, did I miss where the OP said he was looking to play professionally or did you just jump to this conclusion?

And second, I would disagree with that "lonely life" statement. It is true that many card counter types, especially the solo type players do seem to have that "loner", introvert personality type. And that works well for those that travel the country and world. But it doesn't HAVE to be that way.

I have built what I think is a pretty normal, stable life playing blackjack for a living. I live with a significant other and another family member (my brother) and a friend in a house in the suburbs (Vegas's version of suburbs). I travel much less than most professional players, making 3-4 short trips per year and 2 of them are as much about visiting friends as they are business BJ trips. Most of my playing time mirrors a traditional work week, taking most weekends off, or "mostly" off, as I may play an hour or so during a trip to a casino for a meal. The only time I break from almost banker like hours is one 3-4 day period per month when I go on the graveyard shift, just to spread my play around a bit.

So, I pretty much work a traditional work week, with lots of free time surrounded by significant other, family and friends. Nothing lonely about that. If anything I don't get enough alone time. :rolleyes:
 
#18
KewlJ said:
First, did I miss where the OP said he was looking to play professionally or did you just jump to this conclusion?

And second, I would disagree with that "lonely life" statement. It is true that many card counter types, especially the solo type players do seem to have that "loner", introvert personality type. And that works well for those that travel the country and world. But it doesn't HAVE to be that way.

I have built what I think is a pretty normal, stable life playing blackjack for a living. I live with a significant other and another family member (my brother) and a friend in a house in the suburbs (Vegas's version of suburbs). I travel much less than most professional players, making 3-4 short trips per year and 2 of them are as much about visiting friends as they are business BJ trips. Most of my playing time mirrors a traditional work week, taking most weekends off, or "mostly" off, as I may play an hour or so during a trip to a casino for a meal. The only time I break from almost banker like hours is one 3-4 day period per month when I go on the graveyard shift, just to spread my play around a bit.

So, I pretty much work a traditional work week, with lots of free time surrounded by significant other, family and friends. Nothing lonely about that. If anything I don't get enough alone time. :rolleyes:
You are right, maybe I confused it with another thread. However, as to your post, I think you are in the exceptional case. I would bet that the odds of averaging what you make, playing your spreads is way too low. Some college basket ball players make it as a pro but the number who played college basketball and did not make the pros are much much greater. Of those who made the pros, far too many got cut or dropped within a year or four. The odds of BJ AP's are less and some become book writers or forum runners and some park cars as valets in Z LV.
 
Top