Do you think it is better to take the cautious approach and only bet half kelly, or should you try to minimize the amount of time it takes to double your bankroll and go full out?
Full Kelly comes with a ~13.5% RoR (for unrestricted betting). Too high for me.
1/2 Kelly reduces this to about ~1.8%. Much better.
1/4 Kelly gets you ~0.03%. Now we're talking.
Do you think it is better to take the cautious approach and only bet half kelly, or should you try to minimize the amount of time it takes to double your bankroll and go full out?
using the formula ror = ((1-(ev/sd))/(1+(ev/sd)))^(b/sd)
in excel you could determine the point at which your ror rises above some desired percentage (by entering the value for b that your bank has fallen to), then use the formula to adjust back to that desired percentage, or some new percentage acceptable to you. that would be a matter of adjusting ev & sd by tinkering with bet spread and or game quality. so you’d want some qualitative CE acceptable to you that falls within some range of ROR =< 13.53%