2 hands of 45 or 1 hand of 60, which has more risk?

[John John]

Which has a higher ROR, 2 hands of 45 or 1 hand of 60? I have started playing 2 hands of 45 instead of 1 hand of 60 as my max bet in order to mitigate my risk and increase my EV.

 

[Meistro]

Neither.

 

[DSchles]

Which has a higher ROR, 2 hands of 45 or 1 hand of 60? I have started playing 2 hands of 45 instead of 1 hand of 60 as my max bet in order to mitigate my risk and increase my EV.

The two hands of 45 increase your e.v. and your overall standard deviation by the same percentage, with respect to one hand of 60, leaving the risk of ruin the same for the two approaches.

Don

 

[KewlJ]

The two hands of 45 increase your e.v. and your overall standard deviation by the same percentage, with respect to one hand of 60, leaving the risk of ruin the same for the two approaches.

Don

I am not, nor pretend to be a "math guy", and you (Don) will probably prove me wrong, but I would think in the very short term, there would be some sort of increased risk for playing two hands based on the co-dependence of both played against the same dealer cards. I mean you run into a dealer that is pulling an obnoxious number of 20's and 21's (and we all have), and both hands are going to get squashed repeatedly. A very short-term variance type of thing and while we normally don't place much consideration on such a small sample size, someone with limited funds maybe should consider this...no?

 

[DSchles]

I am not, nor pretend to be a "math guy", and you (Don) will probably prove me wrong, but I would think in the very short term, there would be some sort of increased risk for playing two hands based on the co-dependence of both played against the same dealer cards. I mean you run into a dealer that is pulling an obnoxious number of 20's and 21's (and we all have), and both hands are going to get squashed repeatedly. A very short-term variance type of thing and while we normally don't place much consideration on such a small sample size, someone with limited funds maybe should consider this...no?

The covariance of the two hands is part of the equation used to calculate the optimal bet size for each of the two hands.

Don

 

[DSchles]

I remembered something that Bryce Carlson wrote quite a while ago, and I tracked it down. You won't want to read the whole thing, so just read the conclusion (last few paragraphs). Bottom line: for the very short term, your observation is correct.

Don

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/entry.php?86-Risk-Ruin-and

 

[KewlJ]

Interesting. Thank you for going to the trouble to look that up.

And BTW Don, I CAN'T read the whole thing. It might as well have been written in Chinese for as much as I would understand.

 

[xengrifter]

Bottom line: for the very short term, [KJ's] observation is correct.

So therefore, we can use an upper-limit of 50% aggregate increase of bet from on hand to two...
... but for the perceived short-term or trip stake, some smaller increase (like 37.5%?) could be considered for risk parity.

.