A message to young aspiring card counters
- Thread starter JohnCrover
- Start date
DSchles said:
Only the people I care about. 
Don
Don
We can all try to feel superior by correcting the simplest spelling error etc. Is that what we are here for?
The title of this thread is "A message to young aspiring card counters". I suggest we respond to it, or close this thread.
I'll tell you how I come up with my custom bet spread and ramp. And ramp is just as important as spread. I don't care for the ramp discussed earlier that has top wagers placed at TC +7. Those kind of TC's occur so infrequently in shoe games, that such top wagers are rendered almost meaningless. I am a proponent of getting max bet out by TC +4 or so.
So, as mentioned it all starts with CVCX. Please note the emphasis on "starts". So like most professional players, I play fractional Kelly. I plug BR and what fraction of Kelly I want and then start customizing. First thing is I drop all the amounts above TC +4. Like I said earlier, I want to max bet by TC +4. And I want minimal different bet amounts. 3 or 4 different betting amounts rather than 7 or 8.
Next you start rounding off because you can't bet the amounts that CVCX will give you which are the optimal amounts. And when I say round off, I mean round UP. Starting out with a fraction of Kelly allows you to do this and still maintain a decent RoR. And I want to round up to a really round number. This means not just the nearest $1 or $5 amount, but a nice smooth amount that is going to keep the game flowing, because time is money, plus you want to minimize down time that the dealer is paying and breaking down odd payments. I call that exposure time.
The end result is I will have a spread and ramp consisting of my minimum wager and usually 3 different betting levels @ TC +2, TC +3, TC +4 (max bet). If there is a significant jump between my minimum wager and my TC +2 wager, I might throw in a wager right in the middle of those amounts at TC +1, just to smooth out the ramp. The game is basically break even at that point.
So again, each of these things, rounding up (sometimes fairly significantly), capping the max bet at TC +4, and an intermediate wager at TC +1, all stray from optimal spread, but you make up for it because it keeps the game moving, reduces the different amounts you show, and eliminates that down time when the dealer is paying off odd amounts and a card counter is exposed.
End result, my spread may not look "optimal" compared to software, but when factoring in win rate and increased longevity, it is optimal for my play.
So, as mentioned it all starts with CVCX. Please note the emphasis on "starts". So like most professional players, I play fractional Kelly. I plug BR and what fraction of Kelly I want and then start customizing. First thing is I drop all the amounts above TC +4. Like I said earlier, I want to max bet by TC +4. And I want minimal different bet amounts. 3 or 4 different betting amounts rather than 7 or 8.
Next you start rounding off because you can't bet the amounts that CVCX will give you which are the optimal amounts. And when I say round off, I mean round UP. Starting out with a fraction of Kelly allows you to do this and still maintain a decent RoR. And I want to round up to a really round number. This means not just the nearest $1 or $5 amount, but a nice smooth amount that is going to keep the game flowing, because time is money, plus you want to minimize down time that the dealer is paying and breaking down odd payments. I call that exposure time.
The end result is I will have a spread and ramp consisting of my minimum wager and usually 3 different betting levels @ TC +2, TC +3, TC +4 (max bet). If there is a significant jump between my minimum wager and my TC +2 wager, I might throw in a wager right in the middle of those amounts at TC +1, just to smooth out the ramp. The game is basically break even at that point.
So again, each of these things, rounding up (sometimes fairly significantly), capping the max bet at TC +4, and an intermediate wager at TC +1, all stray from optimal spread, but you make up for it because it keeps the game moving, reduces the different amounts you show, and eliminates that down time when the dealer is paying off odd amounts and a card counter is exposed.
End result, my spread may not look "optimal" compared to software, but when factoring in win rate and increased longevity, it is optimal for my play.
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Since you brought up dealers. I recommend betting in odd amounts if new dealer.
You catch a Black Jack with a $153.50 bet in a 3-2 payoff.
They are most likely going to either over pay you or underpay you. If they underpay you then correct the error other wise take the money quick.
Just know what the payoff is to your odd bet number.
This works good with tired or new dealers.
You catch a Black Jack with a $153.50 bet in a 3-2 payoff.
They are most likely going to either over pay you or underpay you. If they underpay you then correct the error other wise take the money quick.
Just know what the payoff is to your odd bet number.
This works good with tired or new dealers.
Nightshifter said:
I can respect that, but some dealers can't quite calculate these payoffs that well... then the PB comes in all the time to make sure looking over his/her shoulder... slows down the game and reduces hand/hour Guess you have to gauge the dealer as well if you're going to start doing that
Guess you have to gauge the dealer as well if you're going to start doing that
Otherwise they can figure out they fucked up.