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Got it. I was just misunderstanding what you were trying to say. I thought you were somehow saying there was a 25% chance of getting $0. You still need to treat this as a bet. Just because you aren't going to lose money doesn't mean that it shouldnt be treated as a bet. The amount of your...

Sorry I dont follow how you get a 25% chance of 0. If you have 4 envelops labeled 0, 1, 2 and 3 and they are randomly ordered you will never get 0. This is a Permutation without repetition. So its n! / (n-r)! different combinations. My math does match with this.

I don't think this is how the promotion works. I think there are 24 different combinations of values that you can get. The answer to this is pretty straightforward. What you need to do is find the expectation and standard deviation. Then you use that information to calculate your Certainty...

For play all 75% pen and S17 your ror is 11.4% if you use the sweet 16 and fab 4. RoR is risk of ruin. It is the probability of losing enough money to the point which continuing is no longer considered an option to make your money back. Risk of Ruin = e^(-2 x Win Rate x Bank÷ (Std*Std))

Even with 25 min and assuming PA rules (since you are East Coast) you are at > 10% ROR with any reasonable spread.

Sounds like you should stick to poker. Unless someone starts offering good $1 games this isn't even in the ballpark. Add a 0 to that bankroll and now you are up to $5 min games.

You would need a 1-9 spread betting 1 unit when you have no advantage and 9 units with any advantage just to break even at this game. They should have let you play as long as you wanted.

I think you have your numbers mixed up here.

I'm fairly sure i saw all 8d discard trays this past weekend. Its possible they used 6 decks in those. I didn't play at all so I never watched them remove all the cards from the shoe.

Yeah they were all 8-deck. Including HL which surprised me. Table max on the main floor was also only 500 with a min of 15. There are much better games to be found in PA.

Mount Airy is unplayable. They consistently cut at least 2 decks off.

I'm in a similar situation. I'm just a few years older than you and I feel my age does bring some extra attention given that my max bets go up to 2x1k. Best thing you can do is try to look natural. You want to seem like you are doing this for fun and don't mind losing some money. From what...

I agree. He oversimplifies everything way too much. He uses a standard deviation of 1 unit. Which makes the rebate much worse. The higher the stdev the better the rebate is. We know stdev is higher than 1 unit per round. He also assumes that your win rate per round is what your...

Assuming a house edge of -0.41% and stdev per round of 1.5. If this guy was flat betting 100k and getting a 20% rebate I calculated that any rebate requirement less 1,070 rounds would produce an edge for the player.

You should always Surrender first.