risk of ruin

  1. A

    Optimal Kelly Bet

    2 questions: I understand that if your advantage is 2%, you should be betting 2% of your bankroll for optimal kelly betting for a 13.5% RoR. Or 0.7 of that, or 0.5 of that, or whatever your "kelly criteria" you want to play with is. But that assumes you're betting $0 at any advantage <0%...
  2. A

    Session vs Overall RoR

    Let's say I had a 10k bankroll, and I ran a sim that said my RoR was 20%. Then I reran the exact same sim with a 3K bankroll and it said my RoR was 70%. Would that mean that with my full 10k bankroll there's a 70% chance that at some point I'd be down 3k?