1-4 Spread Sufficient?

[gibsonlp33stl]

Hey -

I'm looking at playing green chips with a 1-4 spread. I'm using Hi-Lo count and planning on playing mostly 6 deck shoes, with decent penetration <1.5 decks cut off...Just wondering with such a low spread if the game can be winnable. In the past I've been playing 1-10 spread with $5 unit, but I'm moving away from local games, and doubt I'll be able to find any games in either Atlantic City or Vegas that either don't have terrible rules and penetration or are always full. Plus, another bonus i'd like to try and achieve are some sweet comps like buffetts or free rooms...so I think $25 min best is crucial to getting those. This will also help my wife appreciate what i'm doing if we can at least get a great meal after some hours at the tables. The reason I'm looking at going down to a 1-4 spread is to eliminate some of the bigger swings. Right now my bankroll is good for $5 min with 1-10 spread, but it's not really ready for a $25 min with same spread, so I'm going to increase my BR, but hopefully enough so I can handle a 1-4 spread.

Any thoughts, opinions, or suggestions would be appreciated...Thanks!

 

[Sonny]

Unless you're avoiding negative counts a 1-4 spread will not give you much of an advantage. You will be close to break even unless the rules are good and the penetration is decent. Also, be aware that the swings with a $25-$100 spread will be much larger than the swings with a $5-$50 spread.

-Sonny-

 

[SystemsTrader]

A 1-4 is sufficient to make the game positive EV for you, however your win/hr will be very low and your ror will increase. You will be better off playing the 1-10 spread on the $5 table and paying for your own meals.

 

[bondon]

I agree with SystemsTrader. The worst day I've had playing a 1-4 spread ($25 unit), I lost $1400 in a little over 2 hours. Playing a 1-10 spread ($5 unit), the most damage up until now has been no more than $500 in one session.

 

[sagefr0g]

the variance experienced on a $25 min table for a player with a small bankroll would likely prove disasterous unless he's just plain lucky.
even a $5 min table can provide quite a wild rollercoaster ride.

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

What kinda variance would you see on the $25 1-4 spread do you think? Would $1400 in 2 hour be pretty close to worst 2 hours probable. My problem with the $5, right now i'm in a local market with some riverboats so I can usually find $5 games with only 2-3 people at the table, so I'm able to keep doing what I'm doing. However, I'm soon moving to NYC, and I'd like to enjoy a few weekend trips with the wife to Atlantic City to feed by gambling crave. And from what I hear, it'll be damn near impossible to find a $5 game without a full table...so to counteract that I figure I need to go to $25 to find a table with only 1 or 2 people, plus the $25 tables seem to have better rules. I'd keep playing the $5, but I just don't really think that'll be an option anymore. And the comps I think would just be fun and help add a little EV. What kinda bankroll do you think you'd need for $25 units, 1-4 spread?

 

[bondon]

Looking at 2 standard deviations (using CVCX - 4D, DAS, H17), the most damage would be ~ -$1050 for 1 hour of play. For 2 hours, ~ -$2100. That number would change depending on casino rules. On the flipside, the upswings are much higher too. I personally wouldn't start with less than a $20,000 replenishable bankroll.

 

[rukus]

youll probably make about 1 unit an hour if wonging out around -2. however, even with a 25k BR your ROR will be pretty high, probably around 5-10%

 

[EasyRhino]

You're talking about taking a bankroll sufficient for a $50 max bet, and switching to a $25 min bet.

It sounds like bankroll suicide.

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

No no no...I'm not saying I'd use the same bankroll. If I make the change I'd obviously need to really bump up the bankroll, but I'm just curious by how much. Would 20k or 25k really still leave a ROR of 5%? Maybe I'm way off but I thought I've read a rule of thumb being 100 times big bet...if big bet is $100...wouldn't 15-20k be plenty?

 

[Sonny]

To give you a general idea...

For a standard BJ game (6D H17 DAS 75%, HiLo Ill18 & Fab4, Play All) you will earn about $2.50 per hour with a $25-$100 spread. The swings will be a little over $1000 per hour and you will need a $190,000 bankroll for a 5% RoR. If you only play positive counts you can increase your earnings to about $15 per hour. In that case you would only need around $8,000 for a 5% RoR. The more agressively you play, the more you will earn and the less risk you will be taking.

-Sonny-

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

Man - that $190,000 number is a little intimidating. I'm assuming that the $1000 per hour is a SD of 1? I do appreciate you throwing some real numbers at me though, what program are you using to calculate that...it would be pretty helpful to run through a bunch of variations on that on my own.
The $8,000 with wonging seems very reasonable...but I hate having to wong around that much. I don't mind sitting at a table and having to text or go to the bathroom with bad count...but back counting gets very old to me. Also - when you say with wonging that I'd earn an expected $15 per hour...is that assuming I play the same number of hands per hour? B/c I'd assume that with back counting and wonging, I'd only end up playing about 1/4 as many hands.

Thanks again for the info though - the help is much appreciated.

 

[Sonny]

I'm assuming that the $1000 per hour is a SD of 1?

That was two standard deviations.

What program are you using to calculate that...it would be pretty helpful to run through a bunch of variations on that on my own.

I used Qfit’s CVCX software to get those numbers. You can also find an entire chapter of charts in Schlesinger’ Blackjack Attack that will show you how different styles of play will change your EV, SD and RoR.

I don't mind sitting at a table and having to text or go to the bathroom with bad count...

If you sit down at the shuffle and leave at a TC of –1 then you will earn about $12 per hour and need a $21,000 bankroll for a 5% RoR.

Also - when you say with wonging that I'd earn an expected $15 per hour...is that assuming I play the same number of hands per hour? B/c I'd assume that with back counting and wonging, I'd only end up playing about 1/4 as many hands.

Right, you only play about ¼ of those hands. The $15 per hour is per 100 hands seen. You will play about 25 hands per hour and win $15 per hour.

-Sonny-

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

That 21k seems about right...I think I could get away with a wonging system of that nature. I'm also a pretty young guy in my 20's, so I feel like it would not be uncommon for me at different spots during the shoe to standup and pretend to be text messaging. And at that point I could even keep my eye on the table and jump back in if the count gets good again.

I'm still a bit confused on the $15 per hour. You state "The $15 per hour is per 100 hands seen. You will play about 25 hands per hour and win $15 per hour." So if the $15 per hour with wonging per 100 hands or per 25 hands?

 

[Sonny]

I'm still a bit confused on the $15 per hour. You state "The $15 per hour is per 100 hands seen. You will play about 25 hands per hour and win $15 per hour." So if the $15 per hour with wonging per 100 hands or per 25 hands?

It's $15 per 25 hands played, 75 hands watched but not played for a total of 100 hands dealt/observed per hour. If you can observe more than 100 hands per hour then your hourly EV will increase.

-Sonny-

 

[rukus]

That was two standard deviations.



I used Qfit’s CVCX software to get those numbers. You can also find an entire chapter of charts in Schlesinger’ Blackjack Attack that will show you how different styles of play will change your EV, SD and RoR.



If you sit down at the shuffle and leave at a TC of –1 then you will earn about $12 per hour and need a $21,000 bankroll for a 5% RoR.



Right, you only play about ¼ of those hands. The $15 per hour is per 100 hands seen. You will play about 25 hands per hour and win $15 per hour.

-Sonny-

for the OP, just keep in mind that as soon as the RC goes below zero, you are at a TC of -1 (if you are flooring). so you will be jumping out quite a bit. on a more targeted note, in AC these days, even with people gambling less overall, many of the main casinos are managing the # of tables to keep them filled - at least on weekends. it may be hard for you to get enough hands in playing only to a TC of -1. just something to think about.

 

[EasyRhino]

Would 20k or 25k really still leave a ROR of 5%? Maybe I'm way off but I thought I've read a rule of thumb being 100 times big bet...if big bet is $100...wouldn't 15-20k be plenty?

Let's argue, theoretically, that $5-$50 with a $5k bankroll has a 5% ROR (not unbelievable)

Then a $25k bankroll would have a 5% ROR if you were betting $25-$250.

If you were betting $25-100, the ROR would be... I really have no idea what it would be. Quite possibly worse, because the variance would be smaller but the win rate would be so miniscule that you might not survive long enough to see it.

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

aha - I get what you mean about the $15 per hour now Sonny - thanks for the clarification. At AC, even the $25 min tables are typically full? That's a bit of a bummer.

Now what I'm thinking about the last post...I understand that your EV drops dramatically with a 1-4 spread, but so should your variance. Since I don't live in Vegas or AC, I don't expect to be playing an absurd amount, but it's more of the competitive nature in me that if I do play, I want to have an advantage of somesort. Is there a way to calculate your ROR with a specific number of hours. I'll give myself maybe 1 weekend per month at the AC....lets say over the weekend I play 12-15 hours (hopefully enough to get free room and meals)...so that gives a total of 144 - 180 hours per year. I know that isn't much, but what would be the risk of ruin with a moderate BR (~$10,000) with the 1-4 spread at ~200 hrs? Does this make a huge difference?

 

[gibsonlp33stl]

Another issue with wonging out is heads up games...I know these are the most profitable (I think) but it really elimnates wonging. I guess for heads up it's best to go to games with SD or DD.

 

[Sonny]

I understand that your EV drops dramatically with a 1-4 spread, but so should your variance.

The problem is that your EV drops more than the variance. Your short-term risk (SD) may be smaller but your long-term risk (RoR) will increase because you are taking on more relative risk for less gain.

Is there a way to calculate your ROR with a specific number of hours.

Sure, we call it Trip RoR. There are all sorts of calculators on the Qfit website:

http://www.qfit.com/cvcxonline.htm

…what would be the risk of ruin with a moderate BR (~$10,000) with the 1-4 spread at ~200 hrs?

With a 400-unit bankroll it’s probably around 20%.

-Sonny-