Astonishing BJ Revenue Info [A.C.]

[FLASH1296]

Looking at the Dec. revenue report from A.C. I found some things that are rather strange:

The casino hold on BJ dropped all along the boardwalk.

The Nov. revenue report revealed BJ holds from 9.6% to 19.7%
The Dec. revenue report revealed BJ holds from 1.3% to 15.1%

December's BJ "hold":

The ugliest: was a modest 15.1% at The Showboat.
The best was a surrealistic 1.3% at Trump Plaza.

Four of the six highest holds were found at the H.E.T stores. [15.1%, 14.7%, 12.5%, 11.5%]
Three of the five lowest holds were found at the Trump stores. [1.3%, 8.7%, and 9.5%]
Trump missed a clean sweep here as Resorts held just 7.5% and Hilton held 8.8%.
Note: Resorts has not made a payment on its bonds since Oct.

The Trump Plaza hold was a truly astounding 1.3%
At T. P. (26 tables) the win was $267,676 on a "drop" of $21,053,945

Interestingly, the Spanish21 hold (based on far less money) was far less variable.
The range of the hold was 16.4% to 27.8%

Your author is requesting feedback in this forum thread.

 

[EasyRhino]

Crazy guess that hold on MOST games dropped in AC, just like everywhere else in the country?

 

[FLASH1296]

Not a "crazy" guess.
You are just misinterpreting the terms.

The "drop" [or "handle"] is the amount of money that the players wager.

Of course that has dropped.

The "hold" is a percentage figure that indicates how much
of the "drop" the house keeps. That should not change

If anything, I would expect a slight uptick in the "hold",
as players, facing economic challenges, may play more recklessly.

 

[rollem411]

No one is looking at the big picture here. Everyone is saying the Trop is in trouble because the introduction of the 4D games was not a success. Yes the Trop decreased in BJ earnings from Nov. to Dec. 2008. HOWEVER, 8 other casinos also dropped in BJ revenue. The only increases were to Bally's and the Borgata.

CASINO / NOVEMBER / DECEMBER / % INC./(DEC.)

HILTON 1,448,899 968,995 (33%)

BALLYS 3,877,961 4,457,133 14%

BORGATA 7,530,546 8,683,458 15%

CAESARS 8,014,083 3,823,977 (52%)

HARRAHS 2,840,675 2,523,395 (11%)

RESORTS 1,824,080 775,329 (52%)

SHOWBOAT 1,635,933 1,282,540 (22%)

TROPICANA 2,573,455 2,315,245 (10%)

MARINA 1,893,205 627,934 (67%)

PLAZA 1,888,399 267,676 (86%)

TAJ 3,816,682 2,968,876 (22%)


SUMMARY:

The Trop 4D is'nt doing as poorly as people had thought

Bally's keep offering shite games and pen. because people are still going...actually I haven't been there in a while so I wouldn't know

Caesars better step it up

Resorts, we'll see what you got under new management

Trump, stop being a b*tch and offer some better games...maybe DD??

The numbers are rounded, but not enough to make a significant difference. If anything is off, please do tell.

 

[rollem411]

WTF, I tried to make it like a table so you can see the numbers better, but it isn't working

 

[Thunder]

I think that we can conclude that the bad players are leaving town a lost more quickly than the good players I don't want to share any more insight gleaned from this data as that might cause some of the casinos to change their games.

 

[Thunder]

There's something wrong with the TP data. Statistically speaking, It is impossible for its numbers to drop off like that in one month barring some huge change at the casino.

 

[rollem411]

There's something wrong with the TP data. Statistically speaking, It is impossible for its numbers to drop off like that in one month barring some huge change at the casino.

Yea, I was pretty shocked with the results too. It's correct according to the nj.gov website. Check it out.


(Dead link: http://www.nj.gov/casinos/financia/mthrev/)

 

[Thunder]

How is it that their win percentage is lower for slot machines than for BJ??

I would think that with the house edge so much higher for slot machines, their winning percentage would be a lot higher too.

 

[Cherry7Up]

I would think the house edge with slot machines is so much higher, that their winning percentage would be a lot higher too.

Slot machines have a higher house edge vs. basic strategy blackjack. I don't know how the actual house edges compare though once one factors in all the poor blackjack players out there.

 

[FLASH1296]

More Revenue Tidbits to open your eyes.

Other points of interest.​

One casino almost lost money on a carnival game - "Four Card Poker"
On a handle of $7,657 RESORTS won $96 for a hold of 0.2%
At the same store some monstrosity called "Texas Hold 'Em Bonus Poker" earned 32,615 on a total drop of 55,305 for a hold of 59.0%

Last month the HILTON lost money at the dreadful "Double Attack BJ"
They dropped $1,945 on a drop of $53,817 for a hold of -3.6%

High Level Slots did NOT lose for the house as often as in the past.
In fact the $100 slots at one property was a huge rip off. Trump Marina collected an absurd 27.4% on them.
Last month they lost $21,483 on their (ten) $50 slots from a drop of $983,950 for a hold of -2.2%.
Last month Caesars 15 $25.00 Slots lost $114,777 on a drop of $6,237,900 for a hold of -1.8%
Last month Harrahs lost $254,446 on a drop of $4,206,578 on the 24 machines listed as "Other Slots" for a hold of -6.0%

 

[21forme]

Flash - don't forget that when games have relatively low volumes of play, negative variance can affect the house. Also, just because a game may be dreadful, monstrous or carnival doesn't mean it's not beatable under the right circumstances. You should know that. You've read Grosjean.

 

[iwantblackjack]

I used to believe one can correlate these holds % with (a) rules at those properties and/or (b) higher-skilled player than a plop. Around 2005 or so, the Borg had relatively low holds for blackjack compared to other casinos; and it was quite consistent for months. Then, i saw alot of exceptions; for a time, the Trop and Resorts had low hold. Ceasars had lowest one time. In either case, the monthly revenue breakdown to the game is great, and you get a picture of how gloomy all the games are at each NJ casino. I just wish other states would breakdown all their games to slots vs table games, or breakdown like NJ. Public disclosure is at its bets. My theory or belief is of course wrong; as i cant believe TP had extremely low; must be the extreme variance month.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Slot machines have a higher house edge vs. basic strategy blackjack. I don't know how the actual house edges compare though once one factors in all the poor blackjack players out there.

It has little to do with that. More important is how long it takes a player to cycle through their buy-in. The buy-in/bet ratio is lower on table games.

Also a lot of slot payouts are in the form of jackpots, and a jackpot winner will usually take the money and go do something else with it. A BJ player who planned on losing his money will stay until he loses it even after he has a winning streak.

 

[FLASH1296]

I actually suspect theft or fraud in the case of the BJ hold at Trump Plaza.

When there is a handle of over $21,000,000 this has to be a result that is
something like, what, 20 standard deviations? L.O.L.

If the drop was just two million dollars, this would be startling enough.

 

[SD Padres]

Last month the HILTON lost money at the dreadful "Double Attack BJ"
They dropped $1,945 on a drop of $53,817 for a hold of -3.6%

Flash,

Is it possible a group of players have developed a winning strategy against "Double Attack BJ" and that would explain the loss?

 

[FLASH1296]

"Possibility" is a slippery vague fuzzy term.

I prefer "plausibility".

That said ...

The answer is ...

fuggedaboudit.

 

[shadroch]

When it comes to carnival games like Double attack BJ, all it would take was one dealer not knowing the correct rules. Awhile back, someone posted about playing such a game and the dealer exposing both his cards, thinking they were dealing Double Exposure.

As far as Trump Plaza, I've heard a rumor but am not going to repeat it. if its true,it will come out soon enuff.

High end slots are incredibly hi-variance. Two jackpot hits when statistics call for only one will kill your entire month. somebody hitting a Mega-Bucks can skew your entire quarter, but things always even out in the end.