BJ Tournament -- Weird Format?

MrFatCat

Well-Known Member
#1
Hi all,

I got another offer for a freeroll BJ tournament at my main shop in AC, and since I had no clue how to approach it last time, figure I might run it past the folks here:

I've generally understood most blackjack tournaments to be in a shootout format -- essentially, that 1-2 players moves on from each table, until it eventually plays down to a final table, which has prizes. Some formats I've seen advertised have allowed for entries/reentries into round two, but this rough concept that you're playing against your tablemates directly means you just eyeball other stacks and bet small until towards the end of the hands allotted, and then embrace the variance/ensure you have a shot to play for whatever place is needed.

The freeroll at this shop has two main differences as far as I can tell:

1. Every entrant plays their first table for a raw score, and then the top 15 totals advance. There is no posting of totals until everyone has played, so there was no way to know what the needed score is, and nobody offered me any concept of what sort of scores previously made day 2.
2. The tournament is winner-take-all, the house will not be party to any sort of chop at the final table.

Everybody starts with 20K, you can only wager in increments of 1K, wagers are 1-10K for 14 hands and then unlimited on the final hand 15. I believe entrants are capped at 300, although my guess is they only got around 150-200 runners. For what it's worth, one of the players at my table had literally never played blackjack before, so I'm sure I'm happy to take some free EV (1st is $100K, and everyone making day 2 gets $500 in funny money).

Does anybody have any ideas of what a "decent" total to shoot for would be? I'm not really even sure how to approach this problem, so if someone wanted to describe an approach to me I'd be happy to do some of the math myself, I just don't know where to start.

Working backwards from whatever that number is (I figured 50-60K is probably the number), I figured the best strategy is probably to wager around 3-5K per hand and just hope to get lucky more or less. Maybe that's not embracing variance enough? Should I bet the max until I get to a number I'm happy with, and then go 1K a hand?

Any thoughts on whether to trust random AC denizens with a chop at a FT at something like this? My reflex is no and embrace even more variance, but I mean, $20K would probably move me to a $25 base unit from $10, whereas the full $100K probably just provides additional ROR insurance, since I doubt the shops in AC are going to be comfortable with me spreading black to purple.

Thanks.

TL;DR: What number should I shoot for given a non-shootout blackjack tournament? 2.5-3x starting stack sound about right?
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#2
The format you describe is not unusual at all. Every tournament is different, but I can make a few comments that may help you.

Figuring out what score will be needed to advance is by far your most important task. If this is a recurring event, then keep your own records. If it's your first time playing this event, then try schmoozing with the regulars and the tournament staff. Eventually you will find someone who will share information. The more clueless you make yourself appear, the more likely it is that someone will help you.

No matter what information you get, try to improve on it by gathering further data during the tournament. If you can watch while the other tables are being played, then do so and record the scores that you see. If you can choose your session, then play near the end so that you can gather as much information as possible. Do some more schmoozing with the players who have already played.

With no limit on the final hand, many players will go all in of the final hand, and about 43% of them will succeed in winning their hands. Some of them will have increased their bankrolls during the first 14 hands, so I would gueass that 60k may not be good enough to advance.

Once you have your goal, the optimal strategy for reaching it is mind numbingly simple and yet surprisingly effective. Bet the maximum until you have reached your goal or bust out trying. Make all basic strategy doubles and splits as well as any borderline ones you run across. As you said, you will need a high variance result and this maximizes your chance of getting one. Once you have reached your goal, bet the minimum. If you have not yet reached your goal on the final hand, then go all in.

And don't bother counting cards to wait for a good time to strike. You don't have time for that and your goal is a high variance result, not an EV maximizing one. Start betting the maximum right away.

See blackjacktournaments.com for more discussion of tournament strategies.

I hope this helps, and good luck.
 

MrFatCat

Well-Known Member
#3
Thanks gronbog. Yeah, I asked pretty much anybody and everybody who'd listen, but I somewhat got the impression that they hadn't been doing this for very long (the place reopened last summer, and it seems like this is once monthly) -- they had a small bar with crappy beer and wine on offer for the tournament attendees, so I sat there drinking a beer for a bit and a guy at the end of the bar had a ticket that said 44K on it, and that was the most data I really got. I'll definitely ask again if I go play.

One question you didn't address -- if I lose my first hand and have 10K in front of me, do you wager only 5K on hand two to enable a double/split? Or just crack it in there and pray? I guess the main scenarios I'd really really want split available to me is aces, and eights vs a 7. They probably come up about as often as a natural, and the natural pays better, so I'm better off being all-in?
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
#4
You keep betting the max, even if that means being all in. Dont worry about not being able to double or split. Your goal is to win (or at least not lose) that all in bet. Your chances of doing that are actually higher than if you bet half so as to be able to double/split. And your chances of winning a single 10k bet are MUCH higher than trying to win 2 5k bets.

Think about it. The smaller you bet, the more hands you need to win in order to reach your goal. That means you need to be luckier in order to succeed. The strategy works by decreasing the percentage of in-the-middle scores (fail), and increasing the percentage of both winning scores (success) and of busting out (fail). The fact that the strategy increases your chance of busting out is irrelevant. All that matters is that the percentage of winning scores is increased.
 
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