Black Swans, Kelly, Sims, Human Perception & Skill

[blackjack avenger]

Can black swans happen in real world bj, catastrophic events that can happen with more regularity then we think?

How accurate is the Kelly criteria?

How accurate are sims?

Can we correctly perceive what is probably or improbable?

How does our personal skill factor in?

How safe is MYYYY money, oh and yours:joker::whip:

I should have put "Long Run" in the title!

 

[sagefr0g]

Can black swans happen in real world bj, catastrophic events that can happen with more regularity then we think?

the problem with black swans as far as regularity of what we think is that we can't know. so to me the answer has to be yes.
as far as the 'ludic realm' it is in fact a subset of the world outside of casino walls, that being the case i doubt it could be immune to black swans. it would just be that stuff inside the casino walls is more normally behaved with respect to the bell curve than stuff outside the casino walls.
thing is the walls are there and what we do as bj aps is really just turning the tables on the casino, we do what they do, thing is casino's do fail.
there is no such thing as a perpetual motion machine, entropy does happen, lol.

How accurate is the Kelly criteria?

good question, i can't fully understand it. how about brownian motion, understand that?

How accurate are sims?

far as perfect bj play, i take it on faith that they are accurate and that Kelly is a reasonable approach.
now psychology becomes a factor, not to mention questions of how one values money.
the question of practicality also enters the equation. really does any AP bj guy do anything exactly the same way as other AP's or for that matter a sim?
to me sim's are just tools, like a pair of glasses to get a better focus on something you need to see as clearly as possible.

Can we correctly perceive what is probably or improbable?

obviously it's all fuzzy to me. but still attempting to deal with the likelihood of stuff and to quantify it gives some grounding for the thinking process. so but, me, i'm a proponent of putting one's two cents worth of thought into the mix. ie. not going whole hog over a gamble with out thought beyond the theoretical approach. the black swan factor being one reason, the fact that realization of ROR is not an impossibility being another.

How does our personal skill factor in?

well one thing for sure is few of us can play like a computer.
mistakes aren't supposed to be such a big deal, if they aren't consistent over long periods of time. me, i have trouble doing anything consistently even over short periods of time. so for me luck is a big factor, the question becomes what am i gonna do with the 'loan' the casino just gave me, or what am i gonna do about the casino just taking back some of a 'loan' the casino just took.:whip:

How safe is MYYYY money, oh and yours:joker::whip:

what will it's value be in the long run even if it is safe?
tell ya what, give me some of your money to play with and we'll see.:laugh::whip:

I should have put "Long Run" in the title!

things inside the casino walls always seem to change. someone told me that and i've found it to be true, lol. i guess we need to adapt, supposedly that's something humans are good at.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Catastrophe, Bit by Bit

Can black swans happen in real world bj, catastrophic events that can happen with more regularity then we think?

Let's consider the fully invested bj pro or semi pro, what events can devastate a bank:?
Cheating
Overbetting
Robbery
Car Accident, got car insurance?
Car repairs
Illness, got health insurance?
Casino not paying win
Casino seizing cash
losing money, falling out of pocket
Police seizing cash
Lawyer fees
bad team decisions
other investments affecting bj bank
Expenses, casinos fail for this issue, yet pseudo counters don't understant it.
Spouse Seizure of bank LOL
or any combination of the above

How accurate is the Kelly criteria?[QUOTE/]

I feel confident in the formula. It's the application in the real world that is probably the issue. This is an argument for betting a fraction of Kelly. This also can take into consideration being risk averse. Also, if you bet a fraction of kelly then you only need a small amount of cash on you which protects from a crippling robbery or seizure of some sort.

How accurate are sims?[QUOTE/]

With some sim programs being open sourced? and with the different camps in the bj community and the "friendly" animosity there is multiple repeating of results, which is probably good because they police each other. Again, probably more of an issue of human frailty when applying sim results. This again is another argument for betting a fraction of kelly.

Can we correctly perceive what is probably or improbable?
How does our personal skill factor in?
How safe is MYYYY money, oh and yours:joker::whip:[QUOTE/]

All this can again come under betting a fraction of kelly, except for betting 1/4th kelly with a 5g bank may not be enough to withstand all those potential factors above. As an example expenses or car repairs could destroy your bank before it grows. If you can easily apply a high skilled game you would be better off then applying an easy lower skilled game.

I should have put "Long Run" in the title!

This is probably the number one issue. One could just win so little that all the above factors catch them or they just decide it's not worth it. One does not have to lose all to be knocked out of the game.:joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

........deleted much bad stuff.......:laugh::whip:

This is probably the number one issue. One could just win so little that all the above factors catch them or they just decide it's not worth it. One does not have to lose all to be knocked out of the game...

right, right, errrhh i mean this is the one that scares me the most.:cat::whip:
just in my imagination, i can just see it, the sun, the moon and all the stars in the universe line up just wrong, every time i sit at the table and for what ever reason some how some way i manage to fall into that nitch that
ends up a crap shoe every single time, or if not every single time then enough crap shoes to ruin what ever rare good shoe fate throws my way.:whip::violin:
not likely i know but not impossible either, no?:angel::whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Fear of Kelly

right, right, errrhh i mean this is the one that scares me the most.:cat::whip:
just in my imagination, i can just see it, the sun, the moon and all the stars in the universe line up just wrong, every time i sit at the table and for what ever reason some how some way i manage to fall into that nitch that
ends up a crap shoe every single time, or if not every single time then enough crap shoes to ruin what ever rare good shoe fate throws my way.:whip::violin:
not likely i know but not impossible either, no?:angel::whip:

Well, to keep the variance down bet a lower fraction of kelly, your risk of drawdown is greatly reduced. :joker::whip:

As an alternative, if you never raise your bets or only do so very conservatively then it's very hard for you to lose your money back:joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, to keep the variance down bet a lower fraction of kelly, your risk of drawdown is greatly reduced. :joker::whip:

As an alternative, if you never raise your bets or only do so very conservatively then it's very hard for you to lose your money back:joker::whip:

right, another thing that can help is have other stuff you can do to obtain an advantage. sorta like how a diversified portfolio works with investments.

 

[blackjack avenger]

This One is Tricky

right, another thing that can help is have other stuff you can do to obtain an advantage. sorta like how a diversified portfolio works with investments.

I agree you can do other stuff in bj to improve your advantage. Just become a stronger player.

However,:joker::whip:

As far as playing another game, this is more tricky. Why not just play the game that offers the best risk/reward payback? Perhaps there could be time, convenience or other issues. I will support your statement by saying one could walk into different casinos and find different favorable or unfavorable conditions for various games.

Can one become a jack of all AP techniques but master of none?

 

[sagefr0g]

practicality for some of us a fact of life

I agree you can do other stuff in bj to improve your advantage. Just become a stronger player.

However,:joker::whip:

As far as playing another game, this is more tricky. Why not just play the game that offers the best risk/reward payback? Perhaps there could be time, convenience or other issues. I will support your statement by saying one could walk into different casinos and find different favorable or unfavorable conditions for various games.

Can one become a jack of all AP techniques but master of none?

yeah being a real master of all AP stuff would do the trick. part of the problem of that is the nature of the casino environment for some of us.
i mean for one it's always changing. learn enough and become skilled enough for some particular venue and poof it's gone.
:whip:
hell, one joint i had that was really sweet, the whole ship is gone. that left me thirteen hundred miles from anything for a while. was it a black swan that got that joint?
another thing is well, just me maybe, but in my experience, advantage is a matter of relatively rare opportunities spread out over relatively extended periods of time where there is only a disadvantage. opportunity as they say 'doesn't knock twice', sort of thing that leaves one thinking, where was i, why wasn't i there? lol
point being, master of any of it? not hardly, far as i can see. a compromise imho ain't so bad, such as an understanding of general principles of advantage, along with access to a vast amount of knowledge and research on advantage stuff.
what ever, speaking of black swans, i like Taleb's barbell approach to the problem of uncertainty, risk and reward sort of stuff that gambling can be.
ie. go heavy on the least risky stuff that rewards on the low but consistent side, light & diverse on the more risky stuff that has the potential for high but rare reward. maybe one won't find an exact fit for that in casinos, but analogous stuff can fit the bill.
thing is for that sort of thing, few of us, certainly not me, are gonna be masters of it.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Mediocrity in Many, Master of None

yeah being a real master of all AP stuff would do the trick. part of the problem of that is the nature of the casino environment for some of us.
i mean for one it's always changing. learn enough and become skilled enough for some particular venue and poof it's gone.

I think the quote "jack of all trades master of none" means one cannot be a master in all things, time and talent won't allow it. As an example, if one splits time between bj and poker then I don't think they can master both. If you believe the more time and effort you put in an activity the better you will be. Also, if you think about it mastery of one should beat mediocrity in many.:joker::whip:

hell, one joint i had that was really sweet, the whole ship is gone. that left me thirteen hundred miles from anything for a while. was it a black swan that got that joint?

black swan's I did not think of in my earlier list. The casino could close or the game could change.

another thing is well, just me maybe, but in my experience, advantage is a matter of relatively rare opportunities spread out over relatively extended periods of time where there is only a disadvantage. opportunity as they say 'doesn't knock twice', sort of thing that leaves one thinking, where was i, why wasn't i there?

speaking of black swans, i like Taleb's barbell approach to the problem of uncertainty, risk and reward sort of stuff that gambling can be.
ie. go heavy on the least risky stuff that rewards on the low but consistent side, light & diverse on the more risky stuff that has the potential for high but rare reward. maybe one won't find an exact fit for that in casinos, but analogous stuff can fit the bill.

A rare perhaps risky opportunity? If you are flashed the right card you should bet very big, this does not happen often in general play. I don't think you get to play enough hands in this scenario to reach the long run.:joker::whip:
Yes, one shold still make the advantage play, especially since one probably can't get enough $ on the table to truly take advantage. So one would be underbetting so the variance and the NO issue is less unforgiving if you lose.:joker::whip: