Buying Out Another Player's Even Money

[D0nnieD0minos]

Can anyone point me to what my edge would be per Hi-Lo TC if I buyout another player's even money election on a natural (using 8D and/or 6D shoe). In other words, another player asks for even money when they have a natural and the dealer is showing Ace up, I ask that player to buy out his hand for 2x his bet. If the dealer has the BJ, I get back 1x his bet (loss of 1x), but if dealer doesn't, I get 2.5x his bet (profit of 0.5x). My math says at the start of a new shoe with only one player and the dealer, this has an edge to me of 8.41% in 8D and 8.65% is 6D - but I am curious as to how this edge changes with the TC, knowing that at TC+3, the edge flips back to the other player and of course then I would not offer the buyout. I am curious if there is any webpage out there that discusses this strategy.

 

[DSchles]

The edges you quote are double the correct amount. They are about right for edges on the insurance bet, which is only half of the original bet. Your edge on the full original wager is half of those amounts.

The insurance edge is linear and is worth about 2.3% per Hi-Lo TC. To see how this works, when you have the three -1 cards lying on the table, the TC is -3/8 (-.375). to make insurance profitable, you need TC = +3.3. So, the TC has to increase from that point by 3.675. Now, 2.3 x 3.675 = 8.45, which agrees very nicely with your 8.41%. But again, this operates on HALF of the value of the original bet.

Don

 

[D0nnieD0minos]

Wow thanks much appreciated. That's very helpful for figuring out how much I can buy relative to my BR. Glad I asked and didn't overdo it.

 

[D0nnieD0minos]

I see what I did. I got EV mixed up with edge and did not account for the exposure being 2 units instead of 1. Rookie math mistake.