Card Cutting for repeating shoes with high positive count

[matt21]

In my playing I have observed something - I am sure this is something that experienced counters are well aware of. So I would like to ask whether some insights could be shared

I have noticed that shoes with a highly positive counts tend to often be in the company of other highly positive count shoes. likewise this is often true for highly-negative count shoes. If I had a choice then I would obviously want every single shoe to be highly positive

So, when being offered to cut the shoe after the shuffle, is there anything I can do to increase the likelihood of a highly positve count shoe to be repeated? Will i need to closely examine how the dealer shuffles the cards in order to this?

let's say I have a pen79 game - 4D or 6D - and my running count after the final round is +10 (using HiLo). So that obviously means that I have got lots of high cards left in the section of undealt cards - so ideally I would like to cut the deck so that the cards belonging to that undealt session, then are again located at the end of the shoe? Or should I be trying to get that section to the start of the shoe and then bet more at the beginning of the shoe even though we will be starting with a negative count?
I am starting to confuse myself with this post - i am betting more in positive counts because i am expecting more picture cards - but if I have cut those picture cards out of the dealing zone, then that advantage that i am seeking will not actually crystallize!

But I am basically looking to have the situation where I get a lot of small cards to begin with so that the shoe turns into a positive one. Hmmm, does that mean i should be looking for shoes that finish with a high -ve count and then try and cut the undealt cards to the top of the next shoe?

A lot of this was triggered by what happened recently - I had three or four consecutive negative shoes. In the fourth one, about one and a half decks into the six deck into the shoe, and after the dealer already landing 3 or 4 black jacks, the dealer asked me whether i would like to have a re-shuffle to which i promptly said yes (as TC was already at -4!). The next shoe turned into a huge positive count - where despite losing badly at the beginnning, I made a bundle!! I am sure that this must have been down to the way i cut the shoe after the re-shuffle!

 

[bjcount]

I am sure that this must have been down to the way i cut the shoe after the re-shuffle!

Heres a suggestion.
purchase the following;
The Cookbook by Snyder
Shuffle Tracking for beginners by George C
Ace Prediction by McDowell
CVST by Norms' Qfit
6 decks of cards

and study.

The answers you receive on here will be too general. (and they should remain that way)

BJC

 

[zengrifter]

I have noticed that shoes with a highly positive counts tend to often be in the company of other highly positive count shoes. likewise this is often true for highly-negative count shoes. If I had a choice then I would obviously want every single shoe to be highly positive

So, when being offered to cut the shoe after the shuffle, is there anything I can do to increase the likelihood of a highly positve count shoe to be repeated? Will i need to closely examine how the dealer shuffles the cards in order to this?

let's say I have a pen79 game - 4D or 6D - and my running count after the final round is +10 (using HiLo). So that obviously means that I have got lots of high cards left in the section of undealt cards - so ideally I would like to cut the deck so that the cards belonging to that undealt session, then are again located at the end of the shoe? Or should I be trying to get that section to the start of the shoe and then bet more at the beginning of the shoe even though we will be starting with a negative count?

See ZGI page-12.
Also, Sonny's Shuffle Tracking for Dummies post, someone got link? zg

 

[Sonny]

So, when being offered to cut the shoe after the shuffle, is there anything I can do to increase the likelihood of a highly positve count shoe to be repeated?

If you know where the high/low cards are, yes. Otherwise, no.

So that obviously means that I have got lots of high cards left in the section of undealt cards - so ideally I would like to cut the deck so that the cards belonging to that undealt session, then are again located at the end of the shoe?

No, you want to play those high cards. Don’t cut them out of play. That’s the same thing as removing lots of tens and aces from the shoe. You will only make the house edge higher if you do this.

Or should I be trying to get that section to the start of the shoe and then bet more at the beginning of the shoe even though we will be starting with a negative count?

If you cut the high cards to the front of the shoe then the count won’t be negative, it will be positive. When there are extra high cards the count is positive. After those high cards come out the count will be negative.

But I am basically looking to have the situation where I get a lot of small cards to begin with so that the shoe turns into a positive one.

Why not just cut the small cards out of the shoe completely? That way the entire shoe will be “stacked” with a positive count. You can start the shoe with a positive count and expect mostly high cards to come out the whole time. You get the benefit of playing high counts without the drawback of playing through negative counts to get there. It's also better for cover.

Hmmm, does that mean i should be looking for shoes that finish with a high -ve count and then try and cut the undealt cards to the top of the next shoe?

That’s the basis behind cutoff tracking, which I describe in my “imbeciles” series:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1919
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1920
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2140

-Sonny-

 

[matt21]

If you know where the high/low cards are, yes. Otherwise, no.

No, you want to play those high cards. Don’t cut them out of play. That’s the same thing as removing lots of tens and aces from the shoe. You will only make the house edge higher if you do this.

If you cut the high cards to the front of the shoe then the count won’t be negative, it will be positive. When there are extra high cards the count is positive. After those high cards come out the count will be negative.

Why not just cut the small cards out of the shoe completely? That way the entire shoe will be “stacked” with a positive count. You can start the shoe with a positive count and expect mostly high cards to come out the whole time. You get the benefit of playing high counts without the drawback of playing through negative counts to get there. It's also better for cover.



That’s the basis behind cutoff tracking, which I describe in my “imbeciles” series:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1919
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=1920
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2140

-Sonny-

Hi Sonny - many thanks for your replies and for the links - i will study through those threads.
Of course you are right - if i know where the small cards, and i can cut them out completely then i am automatically bettering my AP. This makes perfect sense now - i had to think about this for a little bit.

So let's assume that at the end of the shoe, the running count is -12. And there is 1 deck of undealt cards in the 6 deck shoe. The running count for that remaining deck should be +12 (i.e. a lot of small cards on the whole). Assume that i can track where the small cards end up and then cut them out of the shoe. This means that the running count for the 5 decks to be dealt should be -12. However since i know that there are already a net 12 picture cards more in the 5 decks to be played, i should start my running count with +12 (rather than 0) and divide by 5 to get the true count for the decks to be played.

If I get to the end of the 4th deck and my adjusted running count is +5, then my true count is +5/1 (i.e. +5) since there is only 1 deck out of the 5 play-decks remaining. I would obviously be betting a lot of units at TC=+5. And given that I started with +12, the running count should be zero by the end of the 5th deck (since the 6th deck will have a +12 count). In contrast if i did not make any adjustments, then at the end of the 4th deck i would have a running count of -7 with two decks remaining i.e. -3 and bet only 1/2 unit.

Additionally, my true count at the start of the shoe would already be +2 (+12/5) and this means i would already be betting more right from the beginning.

Overall this would ahve a big impact on my EV, since i will now be spending more time in positive true counts and less time in negative counts!

This sounds very promising!

Sonny, do I seem to be understanding this correctly?

 

[matt21]

Heres a suggestion.
purchase the following;
The Cookbook by Snyder
Shuffle Tracking for beginners by George C
Ace Prediction by McDowell
CVST by Norms' Qfit
6 decks of cards

BJC

Thanks for all these suggestions!

 

[Sonny]

Sonny, do I seem to be understanding this correctly?

Your example sounds good if the deck of small cards (the cutoffs) gets cut out of play without being mixed with any other cards. If it gets mixed with another deck then you will have a two-deck segment, half of which is your +12 segment and the other half is unknown. In that case you have to adjust your numbers. It gets more complicated when you are dealing with multiple segments, but your example is correct for that situation.

-Sonny-

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Simplest thing you can do: If you notice a large pocket of high or low cards at any point in the shoe, keep an eye on that segment through the shuffle, cut accordingly. This works better with some shuffles than others. But at any rate you need a good eye. You want those aces cut to the top, and the 4s and 5s behind the cut card in the new shoe.

I primarily look for clumps of aces or 4's and 5's. Those are the best and worst cards for the player, respectively.

 

[UK-21]

The way forward . . . .

This is good - and I think the way forward to me developing my game a bit further.

I was playing recently, and left the table when the count nosedived to RC-7with two and a half decks played (TC-2). So assuming that the shuffle was weak, if I'd been able to cut that block to the front of the new shoe, there would have been seven more high cards than low cards within the first half of the shoe (which I would think even in the ENHC game would give an off the top +edge and justify betting at 2 units from scratch rather than one)?

So that't the next stage after getting the BS and counting to a point of few, if any, errors - keeping track of (each quarter?) a deck and between which parts the count shifts between pos and neg?

And there's me thinking I wouldn't bother with ST as it was too difficult and required too much practice to become proficient at it.

Thank you for this insight.

Newb99

 

[Blue Efficacy]

This is good - and I think the way forward to me developing my game a bit further.

I was playing recently, and left the table when the count nosedived to RC-7with two and a half decks played (TC-2). So assuming that the shuffle was weak, if I'd been able to cut that block to the front of the new shoe, there would have been seven more high cards than low cards within the first half of the shoe (which I would think even in the ENHC game would give an off the top +edge and justify betting at 2 units from scratch rather than one)?

So that't the next stage after getting the BS and counting to a point of few, if any, errors - keeping track of (each quarter?) a deck and between which parts the count shifts between pos and neg?

And there's me thinking I wouldn't bother with ST as it was too difficult and required too much practice to become proficient at it.

Thank you for this insight.

Newb99

The problem is with a simple stack riffle or a simple zone shuffle is that 2.5 decks will be distributed throughout basically the whole shoe. You'd be better off looking for a rich or lean segment, .5 or .75 decks depending on the casino. You've got the right idea though!