Doubling a blackjack

[playerwh]

Here's one for you smart math folks: I would never double on a blackjack (3:2) but what would the math say about the move? I mean the likelihood of getting a ten value card and winning double my bet vs taking the 3:2 payout on the original hand - assuming no information about deck composition?

Thanks for your insights - again I wouldn't do it but I am curious.

 

[shadroch]

Math says its a terrible move.

 

[Brock Windsor]

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-doublechart.php

Check the chart. Even against a six that double down loses 30% of the time.
-BW

 

[MangoJ]

Here's one for you smart math folks: I would never double on a blackjack (3:2) but what would the math say about the move? I mean the likelihood of getting a ten value card and winning double my bet vs taking the 3:2 payout on the original hand - assuming no information about deck composition?

Thanks for your insights - again I wouldn't do it but I am curious.

Giving up 1.5 for a chance of 2.0 with a potential loss of -1: terrible EV.
You basically risk 2.5 for 0.5, you would need to win 5 times out of 6. (not accounting for pushes)

 

[alwayssplitaces]

There's only one time you do it, if you know the next card is a ten. Or if you want to look like an idiot (which does give you the advantage of longevity)