Getting back into counting, what have I missed?

[p8ntballsk8r]

Now that I'm finally building a bankroll, I'm deciding to give counting another whirl as my early positive varience ended by a huge negative down turn.

I stopped playing very near the time that SP 21 had just been discovered as beatable. Is there anything new that has come into the card counting world that I should know about?

I know I will be practising a lot to get back all the skills I once had, and even more beyond that. I'll still be using KO, and as of know I have two games to choose from.

One is a 6d h17 das doa. I'd be spreading 1-10 here
and the other is 2d h17 with a bit more restricted rules: there is some restriction on doubling that I can't remember for sure. but I'd be spreading 1-5 and my unit would be twice as big so I'd still have the same max bet.

clearly you cannot without more information about the doubling restriction, but which game would be more playable and what are the numbers?

Also can someone please point me in the direction of a ROR calculator regaurding how many units one has as a bank roll and also refresh my memory on what the ROR / numbers are for double kelly.

 

[EasyRhino]

I'd want to spread bigger at both games, they sound pretty bad unless penetration is amazing.

download powersim

Risk of ruin for double kelly (continuously resized) is 100%.

 

[Guynoire]

Double Kelly?! I think you need to do some more reading before you start playing again. Full Kelly is the OPTIMUM bet, that means it's the best, there's no logical reason to ever bet more than full kelly. You might trade expected value for reduced variance and bet fractional kelly, but but betting more than full kelly means less return and more variance.

 

[Sonny]

Welcome back! Not much has changed since you left. The casinos are still trying to screw people out of their money. If you can avoid the bad games and play a strong strategy you will be fine. I’ve heard that many of the SP21 games in the US are not that good, but I would defer to someone who knows more about it than me. There are some great RoR calculators here:

http://www.qfit.com/cvcxonline.htm

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Welcome back! Not much has changed since you left. The casinos are still trying to screw people out of their money. If you can avoid the bad games and play a strong strategy you will be fine. I’ve heard that many of the SP21 games in the US are not that good, but I would defer to someone who knows more about it than me. There are some great RoR calculators here:

http://www.qfit.com/cvcxonline.htm

-Sonny-

SP21 is very beatable and in some parts of the country the most beatable game in the casino, but you need at least a medium-sized bankroll to play it profitably. There are also a very limited number of tables (resulting in high exposure per pit), crowded conditions and the game sometimes draws an abusive crowd, thus the table comportment of an experienced player is necessary. For these reasons I wouldn't recommend it to a new player. Better to get some experience in lower stakes BJ first.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I know I will be practising a lot to get back all the skills I once had, and even more beyond that. I'll still be using KO, and as of know I have two games to choose from.

One is a 6d h17 das doa. I'd be spreading 1-10 here
and the other is 2d h17 with a bit more restricted rules: there is some restriction on doubling that I can't remember for sure. but I'd be spreading 1-5 and my unit would be twice as big so I'd still have the same max bet.

I think the game you're talking about is D10 on DD. Yuck.

 

[zengrifter]

Now that I'm finally building a bankroll, I'm deciding to give counting another whirl as my early positive varience ended by a huge negative down turn.

YOU WERE OVER-BETTING!! zg

 

[Kasi]

which game would be more playable and what are the numbers?
Also can someone please point me in the direction of a ROR calculator regaurding how many units one has as a bank roll and also refresh my memory on what the ROR / numbers are for double kelly.

Unfortunately those calculators will ask you for EV and SD. That's what sims will tell you. You want to know the numbers? Like there's one answer. Your spread will likely change with pen in the same game and therefore so will the number of units in your roll.

You have any idea of what went wrong before?

It's probably not a matter of your skill level in using KO but more a matter of knowing what to expect from your money before you wager it.

Blow the $100. Call it an investment in the sport of Blackjack. It's like you'd need a tennis racket to play tennis lol.

It'll tell you everything you want to know, test your skills more efficiently than any other way and you'll know when you are ready because you'll know that you know.

 

[p8ntballsk8r]

ok so the double deck game is still d10,d11 still das and without surrender using the bs engine on this site it is -0.62% off the top, where as the 6deck game is -0.66% off the top.

I'm thinking I would be better off playing the 6deck game because the DD has only one table and it is in the "high stakes room" 10-150 ha ha when instead I could play the 6deck game that has more tables and easily less heat.

if the game was 6deck, doa, das, resplit 3 times with 5 deck penatration what should My spread be? or should I simply wait until I go home to a very similar 6d, doa, das, resplit aces, resplit 3 or 4 times whatever is usual, some tables with surrender, and blackjack area 5 times bigger? The only problem is some days it can be difficult to find a red chip table and even then it is usually packed there.

 

[FLASH1296]

With a Big Bankroll SP21 is a really fine game.

Deep Pockets are crucial - as you will be
spreading twice or thrice as wide as ordinary BJ.

You will need to keep your R O R in hand.
Probably 2,000 units will be marginally
sufficient, at least in my estimation.

As dealers, surveillance and the pit are oblivious
to proper play, and believe that SP21 is a sucker's
"carnival game" heat is said to be non-existent.

BUT, you must first study "Pro's Guide to Spanish 21"

 

[Kasi]

I'm thinking I would be better off playing the 6deck game because the DD has only one table and it is in the "high stakes room" 10-150 ha ha when instead I could play the 6deck game that has more tables and easily less heat.

I think I see your dilemma now - the BJ equivalent of Sophie's choice.

But I'm gonna agree with you on the grounds maybe you won't lose all your money as quickly

Best of luck to you - I know I sound harsh lol - and I could be way off base of course.

You ever worry about risk at all - how likely these huge downturns might occur etc?

How many units are in your roll for either of those games? Is table min $5, $10, $15? Pen levels. KO Preferred? You got $3K or $30K? You playing all or maybe not. Is MSE allowed? Etc.

Whatever lol - I sure can't help you much answering what game is "better". Max EV but at higher risk? Accept less EV in exchange for less risk? Which is "better" for you?

If you had bought the software before you played the first time at least you'd still have the software. And quite possibly, since you bought the software, you may have chosen to not play at all with that bankroll realizing the high risk of losing it all, now maybe have double that bankroll, and maybe, jusy maybe, actually be able to play now at a risk that might make more sense. At least you'd know what to expect from all these different games with all different rules dealt to all different pen levels, etc. Then choose what game is "better" for you.

Sorry - just don't expect my answer to change just because you ask the same question multiple times that God himself couldn't answer. Without a sim lol.

Or just wait til you get a consensus from complete strangers on how to bet your money. If 4 out of 7 say play the DD game and spread 1-4, then do that.
Don't even worry about how much and when to bet that 1-4 spread.

Trust me, I'm suffering more than you just thinking about it and it ain't even my money lol.