High count

bwssr

Active Member
#1
Just learned this game about a year ago. I have the BJA app on my iphone and have a 6 deck show to practice with too. Have read a few books (Thorp, Wong, Collin etc...) I get into to a local casino and am getting some good experience. Card counting is getting pretty good. One thing I have been noticing is that when the count gets high it sometimes favors the dealer more than the player. I raise my bets accordingly and get my ass kicked. Sometimes I do much better in a negative count. Case in point I put down $20 on a ten dollar table. The count started positive but ended up in the negative. I was winning hands left and right so I though f it let go for it. I turned that $20 into $350 . So now I am a bit confused about this hi-lo system. Can anyone relate?
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#2
What happens to you personally in high or low counts is irrelevant. You will have your share of bad luck in high counts and good luck in low counts; it's the nature of the game.

But you have to stop thinking the way you are. A high count NEVER "favors" the dealer. If you understand what counting is, you would understand that that makes no sense. Suppose we play a coin toss game with a biased coin that lands heads 51% of the time. You get to bet on heads or tails. What is your choice? I surely hope you said heads. Now, if we play and tails comes up five times in a row, are you now going to switch your call and decides that tails is better? I hope you said no, otherwise, you don't understand what counting is all about.

So trust the math, and stop trying to draw conclusions from short-term results, which are utterly meaningless.

Don
 

bwssr

Active Member
#3
DSchles said:
What happens to you personally in high or low counts is irrelevant. You will have your share of bad luck in high counts and good luck in low counts; it's the nature of the game.

But you have to stop thinking the way you are. A high count NEVER "favors" the dealer. If you understand what counting is, you would understand that that makes no sense. Suppose we play a coin toss game with a biased coin that lands heads 51% of the time. You get to bet on heads or tails. What is your choice? I surely hope you said heads. Now, if we play and tails comes up five times in a row, are you now going to switch your call and decides that tails is better? I hope you said no, otherwise, you don't understand what counting is all about.

So trust the math, and stop trying to draw conclusions from short-term results, which are utterly meaningless.

Don
Thanks that does make sense and I have had some good high count sessions. Not playing for big money yet just working on getting better. You are correct about the coin toss. That would not be logical.
 
#4
bwssr said:
Thanks that does make sense and I have had some good high count sessions. Not playing for big money yet just working on getting better. You are correct about the coin toss. That would not be logical.
It is a strange game when new...before you have logged your hundreds of hours...because you take your small sample of what you have witnessed...then assume that is going to repeat itself...it won't!

Trust. The. Math.
 

bwssr

Active Member
#5
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
It is a strange game when new...before you have logged your hundreds of hours...because you take your small sample of what you have witnessed...then assume that is going to repeat itself...it won't!

Trust. The. Math.
Thanks. I put a lot of time in on my table at home. Funny how I win there more than the casino but then I’m not playing for money at home. I have found some live card counting videos on YouTube but it’s hard to follow.
 
#6
bwssr said:
Thanks. I put a lot of time in on my table at home. Funny how I win there more than the casino but then I’m not playing for money at home. I have found some live card counting videos on YouTube but it’s hard to follow.
That's a good example from Don.
And keep in mind it is going to take many thousands of rounds (depending on how good the rules are, how good you are, etc) before you can expect to see any relevant results. Make sure you have the necessary bankroll.
 
#7
DSchles said:
A high count NEVER "favors" the dealer.
I am thinking that a case can be made that a high count, even a very high count, can favor the dealer in both anomalous and manipulated card orderings...
... hence the 'beast mode' demonstrated in rare rogue-ASM sightings.
... The assessment of value provided solely by point count has limitations that we all acknowledge, no?
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#8
xengrifter said:
I am thinking that a case can be made that a high count, even a very high count, can favor the dealer in both anomalous and manipulated card orderings...
... hence the 'beast mode' demonstrated in rare rogue-ASM sightings.
... The assessment of value provided solely by point count has limitations that we all acknowledge, no?
You're free to think whatever you want about "beast mode" and ASM riggings. I don't believe any of it.

And no, I can't think of how any high count could ever favor the dealer.

Don
 
#9
DSchles said:
You're free to think whatever you want about "beast mode" and ASM riggings. I don't believe any of it.
Perhaps you are living in a bit of a bubble?

First, if we are speaking about big state-licensed corporations, certainly you know that big corporations pull evil shenanigans all the time... Hence, the Volkswagen emissions scandal.

Then, we allow for the possibility that these are rogue ASMs that are custom hackable and leave no trace... and even were it discovered by Gaming, there would still be plausible deniability by virtue of an incomplete legal definition of random shuffle.

The so-called beast mode would take advantage of shuffling anomalies first pointed out by Griffin - he isolated one of what must be possibly dozens or even hundreds of shuffling oddities that can affect the game outcome: a perfectly ordered brand new deck is given five perfect riffles and a cut - the casino now has a 25% advantage over the basic strategy player...
.... Back in the late 90s I noticed that Binion's was changing out their single deck every 30 minutes, and the dealers all followed the house procedure - 5 rifles and deal. After the first shuffle the dealers give normal shuffling with strips, but not the first shuffle out of the box.

The asm of today that can take a randomized deck and reorder it back to new can certainly then proceed to give any number of quasi-random shuffles that give the dealer a big boost.
 
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DSchles

Well-Known Member
#11
The world is filled with conspiracy theorists. That we have one or more here shouldn't be surprising.

As for Taleb, he is one of the most brain-dead imbeciles that God ever made the mistake of putting on the face of the earth.

Have a nice day! :)

Don
 
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