Performing way above EV. I have only 33 hours played this month but i'm up $2, 250!!! Keep in mind that i'm a $5 dollar player with a max spread of 1-18 because I will spread to 2 spots of $45. My play should probably only be worth about $330 assuming i'm making $10 an hour. Maybe i'm worth more because I play a lot of heads up and blitz through the hands fast at times and i'm always on the conservative side when I give myself hours but even then this is a killer month for such little time played!!!
How am I running so hot?
- Thread starter John John
- Start date
Heads up play can easily get into the 200 to 250 hands per hour range, which will mean double your hourly rate or triple vs a slow full table. Probably you are both underestimating your EV and also running a little bit good. A few dealer errors can really increase your expected winrate as well.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I know from reading just about every blackjack site there is, that you think your losing streak / underperforming is such an unusual, once in a million things...that you are cursed. But you are not, nor are your results THAT unusual.ZenKinG said:
Most years for the last decade or so, I have shared my blackjack results. Some people think or have accused me of doing so as some sort of exercise in bragging. Trust me most years, my mid level type results were nothing to brag about. What I really was trying to do and show, is what is reasonable possible from mid-level green to black chip professional play, AND to show and share the swings that go along with that.
I don't know what site(s) I was participating at in 2014. This site had not risen from the dead yet, so probably either Blackjack the Forum or Wizard's site. But you should look up my results for that year. While I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, I ended the year on a six month, 500+ hour losing streak.
And my blackjack earnings for the year were 27k. That is versus EV of 85k. That is roughly one-third of expected value for the year. It happens! These numbers that you are talking about, months, hundreds of hours, 30,000-40,000 rounds are SHORT TERM RESULTS. And in the short term anything can and will occur. There just is no significance to short term results. They are meaningless and placing any kind of emphasis on them as you have repeatedly done, is just a waste of time and energy. It really is!
This game is about long-term results. Until you accept that....I mean REALLY understand and ACCEPT that, you will continue to flounder and a change of scenery or even playing styles is not going to change that. To experience real success as a card counter, you have to understand and accept this fact that is unique to what we do.
And one more thing about that year 2014 and my results (my worst year). I had supplemental, non-blackjack AP earnings of about 22k. Very small potatoes, but in that my worst year, that extra 22k really helped. And that is the exact situation as to why we diversify a bit to avoid putting all our eggs in one basket. I hate machine play, which is what my non-blackjack AP play consists of....the very simplest of machine play, advantage play. But it is just enough to have something to fall back on and supplement in those below expectation years. Again, it's about not putting your eggs all in one basket. You have a couple guys at WoV that you have met with that can and will help you a bit with machine play AP, or other AP techniques.....my advice is to take them up on it.
And stop crying about being cursed. You are not cursed, nor the unluckiest player on earth.
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"These numbers that you are talking about, months, hundreds of hours, 30,000-40,000 rounds are SHORT TERM RESULTS. And in the short term anything can and will occur. There just is no significance to short term results. They are meaningless and placing any kind of emphasis on them as you have repeatedly done, is just a waste of time and energy. It really is!"
does that mean that I would never reach the "long term" if I cannot play 40k rounds?
How many hours must you play to reach those expected long term results?
does that mean that I would never reach the "long term" if I cannot play 40k rounds?
How many hours must you play to reach those expected long term results?
Ryemo
Well-Known Member
That’s great. But don’t get hung up on it. Short term results are absolutely meaningless. Good and bad. Just try to keep this optimism when you go on a multi-hundred hour losing streak. I had a 300+ hr break-even period this year. I bottomed out around 185 hrs (since the losing “streak” started) and I lost mid five figures. It took me an additional 115 to 125 hrs to recover it all back. I got lucky this year though because I had large winning periods before and after this 300 hr mess. But I’m just letting you know to not get complacent. Losing streaks can go on for hundreds of hours, so start mentally prepping yourself for that now.John John said:
I realize that and I didn't mean it like that. I know running 900% above EV won't last forever. I remember telling my brother earlier this month after my first win of $800 that " I'm going to try to remember this feeling because I know i'm going to feel it when I go on a losing streak and feel like my heart is ripped out of my chest." I realize there will be bad months and that there will be times I perform far below EV just like I performed far above EV like I am now. In the end the math will work itself out if I play long enough though so that's what i'm looking forward to.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
It's not as easy as just saying 'the math will work itself out'. It's a whole different animal when you actually go through it and feel like you're never going to win a session again. You start having to re-size your bets and having to play lower stakes to keep your risk low, which is a psychological challenge in itself. You then have to deal with knowing you've played hundreds of hours and your bankroll hasn't moved and possibly even retreated a bit. What about when you're in a massive losing streak in the hundreds of hours and you're getting backed off on top of that? It's a tough business.John John said:
When I first started counting, I said the same thing as you, "Well the math will take care of itself, I just have to keep playing", but when I started hitting 200+ hour losing streaks as well as giving back all of the 25k profit I made after 400 hours and went into the red, that's when it hits you and where most give it up. Keep in mind this was basically my first 400 hours of my career. I played maybe 50 hours before that red chipping just for fun, but this was my first 400 hours keeping a log etc. I was so close to giving up, but I didn't want to be another statistic wannabe counter that thought he could beat the casino and ended up failing so I piled on and made 30k in the next 150 hours or so. There's a saying, the ones who continue counting had a lot of positive variance at the start and the ones who quit started off on the wrong side of the bell curve. I guess I was the anomaly.
Keep in mind, I'm not bragging either because I'm actually far from perfect and I'll admit it. The swings still bother me a lot mostly because I want to get to a more comfortable bankroll and also because for the past 800 hours I've basically made only 20k and severely under-performed EV. I play a perfect and aggressive game, know all of the indices from -1 to +10 and am very disciplined and never tilt with my bet sizes or anything, but that doesn't mean my mental game is strong enough, because there have been many times where I let it out in other ways, such as saying ridiculous stuff at the table, which I have no doubt has brought me tons of heat and probably a couple of backoffs and hopefully this is a warning to what you might have to experience dealing with in the future.
The point is, you're doing great, but just remember eventually you will hit a tough spell and it's going to test you a lot. Just look at me, even after 1000+ hours, the swings still bother me, and I'm sure many others can attest to it being difficult to ever get over them, but you just have to pile on. Counting is the epitome of what a 'grind' is.
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Great post, Zenking!!
I have had two had losing streaks. After the first one, I tore up my logs, quit for 3 weeks and returned slowly as a fresh start, not trying to get bAck to even, okay with small wins. For a while, it was more important to ensure a win and so leave the casino even if I could have played longer. For me, the confidence had to be rebuilt.
Second bad streak, I just hung in there and gradually back and up. Amazing how a few wins in a row and you think you have casinos as ATM's, splurge after wins and a few losses makes you lose all confidence.
I have had two had losing streaks. After the first one, I tore up my logs, quit for 3 weeks and returned slowly as a fresh start, not trying to get bAck to even, okay with small wins. For a while, it was more important to ensure a win and so leave the casino even if I could have played longer. For me, the confidence had to be rebuilt.
Second bad streak, I just hung in there and gradually back and up. Amazing how a few wins in a row and you think you have casinos as ATM's, splurge after wins and a few losses makes you lose all confidence.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
ZenKing, your above post is interesting. It shows that you KNOW how this works. Yet, reading your posts here and other sites, your immediate response to going through those swings shows extreme frustration, and you sort of go of the deep end, saying some ridiculous stuff. I get that is frustration talking. I went through that as well. Each time you go through these weeks/month long losing, stagnant or under-performing periods and come out the other side, rebounding up to where you should be, you become a little more comfortable with the whole process. You begin to know that everything you have read works! (longterm). And that frustration goes away. You think nothing of the downturns...just part of the game and journey.
I went through it, believe me (or go back and read some of my posts during down struggles). I didn't whine and cry quite as much as you, but similar frustration was there, and I expressed it. I actually see some of myself (from a few years ago) in you. And that's why believe it or not, with some of my comments that you may consider harsh, I am pulling or you. Unlike some of those at Wov, that are openly rooting for you to fail and seem to take some sort of enjoyment in your struggle and frustration.
Cheers mate. (Australian accent)
It shows that you KNOW how this works. Yet, reading your posts here and other sites, your immediate response to going through those swings shows extreme frustration, and you sort of go of the deep end, saying some ridiculous stuff. I get that is frustration talking. I went through that as well. Each time you go through these weeks/month long losing, stagnant or under-performing periods and come out the other side, rebounding up to where you should be, you become a little more comfortable with the whole process. You begin to know that everything you have read works! (longterm). And that frustration goes away. You think nothing of the downturns...just part of the game and journey.I went through it, believe me (or go back and read some of my posts during down struggles). I didn't whine and cry quite as much as you
, but similar frustration was there, and I expressed it. I actually see some of myself (from a few years ago) in you. And that's why believe it or not, with some of my comments that you may consider harsh, I am pulling or you. Unlike some of those at Wov, that are openly rooting for you to fail and seem to take some sort of enjoyment in your struggle and frustration.Cheers mate.
(Australian accent)