How is EV defined for doubled and split hands

assume_R

Well-Known Member
Let's say this is a scenario (the actual numbers and cards don't matter; they are just for an example):

I want to know if, at a certain count, one should hit a 7,7 v 8 or split a 7,7 vs 8.

You have a $10 bet out.

1. If you hit, on average you get a total of $14 back (so your bankroll goes up $4).

2. If you split, you will have $20 out (since you had to increase your wager to split the hand), and on average you will get back a total of $26 (so your bankroll goes up $6).

Now here is my question:
In 1. you increase your bankroll by $4 on average, and won 40% of your bet.
In 2. you increase your bankroll by $6 on average, but only won 30% of your bet.

Which is the better play?

Also, same question, in principle, for doubled hands.
 
I say play 2 is better. I think this is the basis for doing split and double down - to inrease your advantage based on the initial bet. Although the advantage based on total bet drops, in the long run you win more money.

Just my understanding.
 
Thanks, psyduck.

Also, sleightofhand was able to explain to me that in case 2, your TBA is defined as 30%, but your IBA is defined as $6/$10, or 60%. That's the difference between the IBA and TBA.

Yet even though your TBA is 30%, you essentially double your # of hands for a given round, thus winning more money for a defined time period.

Hence, we seem to be in concurrence that in this simple, made up example, splitting would be correct :)

Also this is assuming EV-maximizing indices (or perhaps I should say IBA maximizing), not RA indices.
 
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