How many insurance?

[hannes_offsize]

Hey!

After reading “Black Jack” by Michael Rüsenberg about 9 months ago, I started counting cards. I regularly play in a casino at the A****-**** border, where I came across an option of the rules. It’s about the insurance for the possibility of a black jack of the dealer. However, without the maximum of half of the bet.
According to Rüsenberg, the expected profit for that can reach 14% and more. Therefore, I want to take advantage of this opportunity.

However, I have some questions: How many percentages of the fund should I insure? And what should the count be?
Should I avoid a bet from over 2% of my fund to not get over 5% risk?

I can’t make any sense from the formulas, so I would be glad if someone could answer my questions.

Thanks a lot in advance!

 

[Sucker]

Nice find! This is a GREAT rule for a card counter. Once you get your questions figured out, it will add SIGNIFICANTLY to your overall profit.

The expected profit for insurance is 100% dependent upon how high the count is. In order to determine your optimal bet size, you're going to have to figure out your advantage for every possible count, and then bet accordingly.

The generally accepted formula for optimal bet sizing is what is known as the Kelly Criteria. If you're not familiar with Kelly, look up in the right hand corner of the screen, and where it says "Search Blackjackinfo" type in the word "Kelly". You'll be able to read the many threads that have been posted on this site on the subject.

One thing to remember however: Because this bet is what is considered a "long shot" (2:1 payout), your maximum bet in this instance should NEVER exceed the amount which is 1/2 Kelly. For instance; if the count happens to be high enough that your advantage is 14%, you should never bet more than 7% of your BR. And FWIW; MOST of the insurance bets that you'll encounter in the REAL world will be in the neighborhood of only about 1% to 3%.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Hey!

After reading “Black Jack” by Michael Rüsenberg about 9 months ago, I started counting cards. I regularly play in a casino at the ******* border, where I came across an option of the rules. It’s about the insurance for the possibility of a black jack of the dealer. However, without the maximum of half of the bet.
According to Rüsenberg, the expected profit for that can reach 14% and more. Therefore, I want to take advantage of this opportunity.

However, I have some questions: How many percentages of the fund should I insure? And what should the count be?
Should I avoid a bet from over 2% of my fund to not get over 5% risk?

I can’t make any sense from the formulas, so I would be glad if someone could answer my questions.

Thanks a lot in advance!

Delete your location from this post if you want that rule to stick around. As for how much to bet, just use the kelly criterion to decide. Essentially, you will be having 2 bet spreads: 1 for the regular bet and 1 for the insurance bet. This is the "optimal" strategy, but there are other factors to consider if deciding to employ a spread on the side bet.

On the other hand, you can find your average advantage and variance to just employ a flat bet strategy (remember to consider TC frequencies in the average).

 

[johndoe]

Delete your location from this post if you want that rule to stick around. As for how much to bet, just use the kelly criterion to decide. Essentially, you will be having 2 bet spreads: 1 for the regular bet and 1 for the insurance bet. This is the "optimal" strategy, but there are other factors to consider if deciding to employ a spread on the side bet.

On the other hand, you can find your average advantage and variance to just employ a flat bet strategy (remember to consider TC frequencies in the average).

You should also delete it from your quote.

 

[SleightOfHand]

You should also delete it from your quote.

Thanks icnt. I was at work