Kelly criterion

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
#2
The Kelly criterion refers to the bet size that most quickly grows your bankroll. It takes only two variables into consideration, the current size of your bankroll and your current advantage. Based on these two numbers, it produces a correct bet. Using this system comes with a 13.5% risk of ruin (losing your entire bankroll), but the shortest mean time to doubling your bankroll as well. It is a wild ride and very few play full-kelly. If you play "full kelly" based on 1/2 of your bankroll, and leave the other 1/2 in reserve, your risk of ruin reduces to under 2%. Many do this.

Hope this helps,

--Mayor
 
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