Kelly wagering question---what should be done here?

[MJ1]

What should a counter do in the following situation. His BR is such that he is playing to full kelly, uses a 16 to 1 spread, and his unit = table minimum. Now suppose he loses 25% of his roll over a period of time.

Some would say he should scale back his betting unit by 25%, but that would not work here as table minimums would not permit a decreased unit size. If he decreases his spread to 12 to 1 ROR would decrease, but then he would lose some EV and SCORE as well.

A lot of guys here mention resizing unit when BR flux occurs. But in this scenario, is the only practical option to play with the same unit size as before the negative flux and hope the BR recovers?

MJ

 

[SleightOfHand]

What should a counter do in the following situation. His BR is such that he is playing to full kelly, uses a 16 to 1 spread, and his unit = table minimum. Now suppose he loses 25% of his roll over a period of time.

Some would say he should scale back his betting unit by 25%, but that would not work here as table minimums would not permit a decreased unit size. If he decreases his spread to 12 to 1 ROR would decrease, but then he would lose some EV and SCORE as well.

A lot of guys here mention resizing unit when BR flux occurs. But in this scenario, is the only practical option to play with the same unit size as before the negative flux and hope the BR recovers?

MJ

Because of the relatively high table limits, the inability to make fractional dollar bets ($1.35 for example), the impracticality of resizing bets after every single bet (as should be done when truly betting kelly), and the huge variance that comes with it, almost noone bets full kelly. Betting half kelly (or even less), is the usual choice for counters.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Play a Stronger Game

If you are playing all then wonging out at between tc-2 and tc-3 with some wonging in will compenste for the 25% bank loss.:joker::whip:

If you are now exclusively wonging just scale your bets back and/or come in at a higher advantage.:joker::whip:

Many do bet a smaller fraction of kelly.:joker::whip:

 

[MJ1]

Because of the relatively high table limits, the inability to make fractional dollar bets ($1.35 for example), the impracticality of resizing bets after every single bet (as should be done when truly betting kelly), and the huge variance that comes with it, almost noone bets full kelly. Betting half kelly (or even less), is the usual choice for counters.

Playing half kelly requires too large a BR to make any decent money. Even if a counter did play 1/2 kelly, there is still the issue of what to do if his unit = table minimum and his BR experiences a negative flux. But Avenger offers some solutions.

 

[MJ1]

If you are now exclusively wonging just scale your bets back and/or come in at a higher advantage.:joker::whip:

When you suggest scaling the bet back, do you mean reduce spread when wonging? This would reduce EV and SCORE. What if the spread was such that it was just sufficient to earn the minimum EV to make it worth your while to play? Now reducing it further would make playing a waste of time.

 

[SleightOfHand]

Playing half kelly requires too large a BR to make any decent money. Even if a counter did play 1/2 kelly, there is still the issue of what to do if his unit = table minimum and his BR experiences a negative flux. But Avenger offers some solutions.

When you suggest scaling the bet back, do you mean reduce spread when wonging? This would reduce EV and SCORE. What if the spread was such that it was just sufficient to earn the minimum EV to make it worth your while to play? Now reducing it further would make playing a waste of time.

If playing half kelly (or at least around it) doesn't make "decent money" for you, your bankroll is probably too small to play BJ to begin with. The point of betting half kelly/reducing spread is that when you lose, you are not losing such an amount that it is devastating to your BR. My guess is that you have a small bankroll and you are trying to make a lot of money. Get a job, or if you have one, save up money and then start playing when your BR is big enough to handle the fluctuations of blackjack. As a general rule of thumb, you want your max bet to be 1% of your bankroll. This means that a 1-10 spread betting $10 minimums still need a 10k BR. And even with that, you are going to be making $10-20/hr.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Necessarily

When you suggest scaling the bet back, do you mean reduce spread when wonging? This would reduce EV and SCORE. What if the spread was such that it was just sufficient to earn the minimum EV to make it worth your while to play? Now reducing it further would make playing a waste of time.

If you play a stronger game you can do more with less. If you go from playing all to playing more selectively you can raise EV and SCORE with the smaller bank!:joker::whip:

If one is already playing about as strong a game as they can then yes cutting "all" bets could make EV to low to be worth ones time. So the choice is to play anyway and accept the risk of total wipeout or suspend play and build the bank back up.:joker::whip:

With the 25% loss if table min. is a problem maybe one could just cut their bets 10% to 20% and be able to keep playing with the added risk.:joker::whip:

Most have the ability to add to their bank from outside sources so as long as you have enough to play a session keep going.:joker::whip:

 

[kewljason]

Playing half kelly requires too large a BR to make any decent money. Even if a counter did play 1/2 kelly, there is still the issue of what to do if his unit = table minimum and his BR experiences a negative flux. But Avenger offers some solutions.

True full kelly can only be played by wonging in as you should be betting 0 in all negative and neutral counts (waiting bets). So if you are placing a 1 unit bet at these times you are overbetting full kelly.

Playing fractional kelly may require a large bankroll as you say, but betting full kelly is just to high of a risk. Kind of like gambling.