Learning to count,first.

[newyorkbear]

I'm curious about this.
Every book on BJ says you must first learn BS and then start to learn to count.
But ,for many folks,learning the last few combos of BS is difficult and takes quite a bit of time. Even after you have mastered it,you are still playing a negative expectation game.
My thoughts were that if you took a simpler,less powerful strategy such as MGM,which can be memorzed in about an hour(only 8 simple rules) and then learned a simple counting system(KISS or OPP)that takes a week or so to really get down,you would have a better chance at the tables.As time goes on,you then add the various BS combos that MGM leaves out and advance to KISS 2,and 3.
It seems this would be an easier and more profitable
way of learning the game.
It seems to me that knowing when the decks are in your favor and you should bet more is more valuable than knowing that you should double your A/4 vs.4 instead of hitting it.Knowing when to take insurance is more important than the above hand,simply because the situation presents itself much more frequently,imho.
My thoughts are that someone who learns a system like MGM and KISS would be prepared to play much,much quicker than someone who goes the traditional route.
Thoughts,please.
You'd invest much less time at the beginning and be playing,instead of spending hours and hours simply drilling yourself on BS and counting out endless decks of cards.

 

[zengrifter]

BS (as in bullsh*t) - BS (as in basic strategy) is the foundation of all correct play - learn BS fully or your interest in BJ is just BS! zg

 

[newyorkbear]

I'm talking only of a beginning player here. Anyone who is serious must,obviously,learn BS.I'm talking about a first time player here.
There are hands in BS that come up once every 250plus hands. Do you really believe it is more important to know that you hit your 8 vs.6 and don't double it,than
to learn that insurance is a good bet when the deck is favorable? An Ace should be face up about twenty times as often as that hand appears.
The extra hours it takes to memorize the last dozen
or so hands that come up infrequently,it seems to me,would be better off learning a simple counting system.
Is there a way to compare,via simulation,flat betting BS against a system combining MGM and Kiss?
If I'm way off base here,it should be easy to show.

 

[zengrifter]

If I'm way off base here,it should be easy to show.

Consider this post by Norm Wattenberger wherein he explains that a solid BS player will LOSE LESS than a weak/simple-system +EV player - The simple/weak +EV system increasing the risk-of-trip-ruin SUBSTANTIALLY. zg

----------
originally posted at advplayer

Which is better, negative expectation or positive expectation?

Posted By: Norm Wattenberger <[email protected]>
Date: Monday, 26 December 2005, at 10:13 a.m.

No it’s not a trick question. There have been many posts lately in several places that consider this a no-brainer. That any positive expectation, no matter how small, is better. Like many other BJ questions, the correct answer to this question is - it depends. It depends on your goals, your situation and most importantly, what you need to do to get that positive expectation.

Let me provide an example. You visit LV once or twice a year. You like to play BJ and plan to play 1,000 hands. You aren’t willing to learn KO for an occasional trip. You would like to win of course, but it’s more important that you don’t exhaust your budget before your trip ends and wind up walking the Strip waiting for the trip to end. Your budget is $500 and you will play the $5 tables. The sims are for 4.5/6 decks, S17, DAS, four players. The two strategies compared are OPP with optimized bets and 1-16 spread versus Basic Strategy flat-betting (i.e. also optimized bets.)

OPP (perfectly played) will win 39.7% and go bankrupt 54.5% of the trips.
Basic Strategy will win 45.1% and go bankrupt 0.9% of the trips.

So, using OPP, you will bust before the end of the trip half the time instead of 1 out of 100 with BS. And, you will actually end up a winner more often with BS. In the long run, OPP will win more (about $95 a trip more.) But, if your goal is to make it through the trip without busting and having to leave the casino, the negative expectation strategy is a better match.

Now some people will say that the comparison should force the average bets to be the same. I disagree. The problem with weak counts is they force a large spread. And unless you want to play with silver dollars, the average bet can be forced higher. But, I ran a sim with the same average bet anyhow. In this sim, the BS player bets $15 a hand. Here, the player wins 41.9% and bankrupts 40.0% of the trips. Still better than OPP.

I receive rather a lot of calls for advice on strategies. Most often I suggest KO (even though it was not included in CV until recently.) However, I have also suggested BS many times. In my mind, if you don’t wish to learn KO, then you are better off with BS than a very weak system.

 

[newyorkbear]

Thanks for the link,but I don't understand the connection.
The comparision he is making with OPP is using what?
Perhaps I'm missing something but shouldn't he be using OPP and BS together?As far asI know,OPP is a betting. system that relies on BS,doesn't it?Seems that all he's doing is comparing OPP to flat betting.
This guy(who I know nothing about) seems to have it in for OPP. I read some other very negative things he wrote about it on another site.

 

[zengrifter]

OPP is a loser-time waster. His point is that you are better off with BS than a overly simplistic +EV system because of the inherent capital swings. Its the old adadge of "knowing just enough to be dangerous." Learning BS completely (ie, solid multi-deck composit BS with variations for DAS & nonDAS) is an important first transitional step that seperates you from the other 99% of so-called players. Anyone who rationalizes not fully mastering BS belongs to the lower-99%. zg

 

[newyorkbear]

I don't know enough about OPP to agree/disagree with you on it.
Given enough time,I'd agree with you on the best route to go,but I'll be in Vegas with a friend who has never played before. I gave him Blackjack Bluebook to read,but he doesn't think he'll have the time or inclination to master BS and CCing in a month,with his work schedule.
I'm thinking its possible to mix the two and come up with a reasonable program that will infuse some basic CCing for betting purposes with a lesser playing strategy.if its successful,there will be plenty of time later to perfect the systems.

 

[zengrifter]

I'm thinking its possible to mix the two and come up with a reasonable program that will infuse some basic CCing for betting purposes with a lesser playing strategy.

Give him a BS chart and an explanation of why he should never deviate from it and keep his bets low. When he is with you at the table he can raise his bets slightly when he sees you do the same.

Both of you might be better off as "COMP COUNTERS" as explained in Rubin's Comp City. zg

 

[newyorkbear]

As you point out,anyone can buy a chart that gives the correct move for BS. Thats why I think he should study CC from the gitgo.
Yes,he could simply mimic my bets,but thats not going to help him learn,nor show him the possibilities.

 

[zengrifter]

OK. Anyone else? zg

 

[Mikeaber]

OK. Anyone else? zg

I have been following this thread but have nothing to add. I know of no way to improve or gain advantage superior to straight Basic Strategy in any other way than deviating from Basic Strategy only when indicated by good counting methods and the indexes associated with them.

I understand NYBear, that you are talking about a beginner with limited time to become proficient at the game, but, I still think his best bet is to work his butt off on simulators practicing Basic Strategy specific to the table rules you will be playing most.

It would seem to me that it would be more difficult for him to memorize an abbreviated strategy and in addition, memorize and perfect even the simplest counting method than to take the longer road to advantage play by perfecting Basic Strategy the conventional way. Add counting later when playing good strategy is automatic.

Another thing I might question.....how large a bankroll is your friend going to be playing with? There was a link to an article about basic strategy and flat betting versus counting over a short term with small bankroll. I'm talking about a 1-week planned trip with $500 BR and making $5 flat bets versus trying to count and raise appropriate amounts on high counts. The risk of ruin was phenominal for the counter in those circumstances compared to flat betting.

Check around here. I think the link was posted just yesterday.

 

[zengrifter]

Could use the 'count-dependent BS' chart with HiLo. BUT comp-counting w/BS would be much more profitable. zg

 

[newyorkbear]

Ok.
I'm fishing for opinions here,not trying to prove I'm right. I'm recalling my first visit to Vegas in Sept.2001,where I'd been studying BS for weeks and thought I was up to speed in CCing.While I managed a small win over a week,I realized my CCing was way too slow.I also remember consulting one of my tablemates charts a time or two. I could have saved hours of practice,had I realized you could use a $2 card at the tables.
Even now,I still confuse the odd DD or two,but I believe that knowing when to bet more,or take a smoke break makes up for it.My last trip,I screwed up BS 4 times in about 15 hours of play. Lost track of the count many more times. But as I was playing DD,I just flat-betted the next few hands. I'm comfortable playing near perect BS,with the various changes asper the count. I would guess I'm about 98% on. Far from perfect,but getting there bit by bit. What really puzzles me is that,quite honestly,I win at a much higher rate than I'm supposed to.

 

[zengrifter]

StickySoft sells a counterBS chart which is different than regularBS - I don't think that it can be found on the net free. The idea is that you learn or otherwise use a single BS that factors in the occaisional larger count-based bets. For example it shows double A8 vs 4-5-6 and stand 16 vs. 10 etc.

Notwithstanding the above, have you explored the science of "comp-counting"? zg

 

[newyorkbear]

I'm not really sure what "comp-counting" is.
If its using match-play and free aces to gain an advantage,I'm already doing that,but could certainly move up another level or so.
I'll be Vegas the day after the SuperBowl and have about a dozen matchplay coupons,and two free Aces. Will be picking up a couple sets of win cards(cost $10,get $15 in promo chips),and coupons for a few funboks that may have more coupons.
Is this comp-counting? If not,please explain what is. Anything legal that gains me any advantage is worth exploring.

 

[zengrifter]

I'm not really sure what "comp-counting" is.
If its using match-play and free aces to gain an advantage,I'm already doing that,but could certainly move up another level or so.

No its not the match-plays and free aces - thats 'couponomics'. Comp-counting is the science of exploiting the casino comp system using BS at BJ while synchronizing your high bets to correspond with the infrequent rating slip entry that the pit boss makes every 15 minutes or so.

The advantage potential is huge - whereas a card-counter might realize longterm profits of $50/hr - the same BR can earn a comp-counter $300+/hr in casino complimentaries from the get-go.

Max Rubin's Comp City is the definitive guide to this POWERFUL advantage play. zg

Book review - http://www.lvrevealed.com/books/comp_city.html

Comp City: A Guide to Free Casino Vacations

by Max Rubin

Every year, U.S. casinos give away more than a billion dollars worth of amenities to customers in return for their gambling action. The giveaways, known as ?comps? (short for complimentaries), range from parking and drinks to gourmet meals and airfare-all free.

This impressive rebate, unique to the casino business, is what Comp City is all about. Originally published in 1994, this expose of the guarded world of the casino comp system, penned by a former casino executive, has shown tens of thousands of gamblers how to get free casino vacations.

The second edition is completely updated and revised and includes comp policies for casinos throughout the United States.


What the Experts are Saying...:
"Rubin is a comp wizard with an insider's knowledge of the casino industry, and he plays angles that have never even dawned on the rest of us."
--John Grochowski, Chicago Sun Times


"Amateur gamblers have had the edge on casinos for a long time. They just never knew it until Max Rubin came along."
--Jack Binion, Legendary Casino Operator


"Comp City is the most important gambling book to come out in the last decade."
--Steve Forte, Legendary Gambler

 

[newyorkbear]

Guess I've been comp-counting fom the gitgo.
I always make my first two bets double my average,and keep an eye for when the PB is making the rounds.
Plus,in Ac,I time my visits to Harrahs for their 2Xor 3X
reward days.So my usual $15 bet counts for $30 or $45.
this trip I'm getting 2 free nights at Harrahs,same at Harrahs Laughlin and $19 rooms at the Imperial(along with 2 buffets and 4 matchplays).
I've read the Frugal Gambler book and learned much. Do you recommend this book? Saw it on Amazon fairly cheap.

 

[zengrifter]

So my usual $15 bet counts for $30 or $45. Do you recommend this book? Saw it on Amazon fairly cheap.

With Max's tactics your $10 bets look like $100 to the comp system. The thing about comp-counting is that your primary goal is to trick the comp system, not win the cash. He does have a section on "comp counting for counters" where he rectifies the divergent skills somewhat.

YES, this is one of the single most powerful advantage-play books ever published. What it teaches is quantifiably stronger than counting. zg

Ps - If you buy it from Las Vegas Advisor it will come autographed.

Max Rubin

Max Rubin, author of Comp City—A Guide to Free Casino Vacations, has worked in the casino industry for 25 years – as a dealer, pit boss, casino owner, gambler, and now as a comp profiteer. As a high-stakes blackjack player, Rubin has been comped to everything from unlimited room service to golf, from Lear jet rides to Super Bowl tickets. In Comp City Rubin exposes the guarded and vulnerable underbelly of the casino comp system. He has been featured on "48 HOURS", "TRAVEL CHANNEL", and is an entertaining guest for radio and TV interviews. Ask him about the good 'ole days when his dad was a casino cheat. Rubin lives in Las Vegas.

 

[nc-tom]

No its not the match-plays and free aces - thats 'couponomics'. Comp-counting is the science of exploiting the casino comp system using BS at BJ while synchronizing your high bets to correspond with the infrequent rating slip entry that the pit boss makes every 15 minutes or so.

The advantage potential is huge - whereas a card-counter might realize longterm profits of $50/hr - the same BR can earn a comp-counter $300+/hr in casino complimentaries from the get-go.

Max Rubin's Comp City is the definitive guide to this POWERFUL advantage play. zg

Book review - http://www.lvrevealed.com/books/comp_city.html

Comp City: A Guide to Free Casino Vacations

by Max Rubin

Every year, U.S. casinos give away more than a billion dollars worth of amenities to customers in return for their gambling action. The giveaways, known as ?comps? (short for complimentaries), range from parking and drinks to gourmet meals and airfare-all free.

This impressive rebate, unique to the casino business, is what Comp City is all about. Originally published in 1994, this expose of the guarded world of the casino comp system, penned by a former casino executive, has shown tens of thousands of gamblers how to get free casino vacations.

The second edition is completely updated and revised and includes comp policies for casinos throughout the United States.


What the Experts are Saying...:
"Rubin is a comp wizard with an insider's knowledge of the casino industry, and he plays angles that have never even dawned on the rest of us."
--John Grochowski, Chicago Sun Times


"Amateur gamblers have had the edge on casinos for a long time. They just never knew it until Max Rubin came along."
--Jack Binion, Legendary Casino Operator


"Comp City is the most important gambling book to come out in the last decade."
--Steve Forte, Legendary Gambler

Thank you for explaining comp-counting,very helpful.

 

[newyorkbear]

I bought the book from LVA,$9.98 for members.
while I'm a bit dubious about some of his statements,Mr Rubin writes in a very entertaining style. I will be testing his advice on my trip in Feb.