Lost 700 units in one sesion need help

[zengrifter]

i`m plannig 1 -10 and cover plays of Anderson (chapter green players) 15 to 45 min for casino

1-10 at play-all mode won't cut it. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Ok so we have determined that losing 12 max bets in 3 hours is not out of the norn at all. Hell, losing 12 max bets in minutes is very possible. :

My all time record is probably 12-max loss in 6-min. zg

 

[kewljason]

My all time record is probably 12-max loss in 6-min. zg

Well, I hope the next 6 minutes was better. :laugh: But in all seriousness, I am sure we all have encountered shoes where the count goes high fairly early and we throw out max bet after max bet losing most of them. Unforetunately, it's not all that uncommon to lose 10 or 12 max bets in one shoe. That's why I didn't find the posters loss of 12 max bets over 3 hours all the spectacular.

 

[StandardDeviant]

1-10 at play-all mode won't cut it. zg

ZG, could you explain? I agree that one can do better than this with higher spreads and selective play, but when I run the sims, a 1:10 spread gives me a positive expectation of ~ 0.7%-0.9%, depending on rules. Why doesn't it cut it?

 

[daniel27]

hi daniel 27
sorry to hear about your loss

your figures
win rate - $334 - i am assuming this is your hourly win rate?
SD - $2,804 - i am assuming this is your hourly SD rate?
you played 3 hours.
Loss of 700 units - assuming this means $7,000?

if my assumptions are correct then the number of hands that you played dont matter (since they already go into calculating your win rate). Your ROR and BR are also irrelevant for calculating the likelihood of losing $7,000.

for 3 hours:
your EV would be 3 x 334 = $1,002
your SD would be sqrt(3) x $2,804 = $4,857

thus a result 1 std dev below EV would be $1,002 - $4,857 = -$3,854
thus a result 2 std dev below EV would be $1,002 - (2x$4,857) = -$8,711

Thus a loss of $7k would be well within just 2 standard deviations.
In percentage terms, the chance of losing $7,000 or more would be 4.97% (using the normal distribution formula in MS Excel).

Hope that helps.

Matt

Of course it helps thanks for your reply.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Aggression

ZG, could you explain? I agree that one can do better than this with higher spreads and selective play, but when I run the sims, a 1:10 spread gives me a positive expectation of ~ 0.7%-0.9%, depending on rules. Why doesn't it cut it?

Some are more aggressive and demand a better game/higher return before they play:whip::joker:

 

[Kasi]

do you use cvcx? i can send you the image ...

No I don't but I'd love to see a pic of the sim you used posted here if you feel like it.
No big deal - just interested. Maybe it would be interesting to dissect exactly what it's telling us.
Maybe not lol.

Whatewver it says, rather than doubt it, I'd accept it as Gospel and go from there.

If it says 18% it could mean you are barely outside one Stan Dev for that period of time? That's how painful it is even if completely expected to happen, if so.

Seemed like you gained it all back and then some? How likely does it say being up 1400 units for how long you have played is now?

Or how likely does it say your positive run of +2100 units is?

Good luck.

 

[Kasi]

...but when I run the sims, a 1:10 spread gives me a positive expectation of ~ 0.7%-0.9%, depending on rules. Why doesn't it cut it?

Like you said, and probably he meant, of course there may be better games out there. Always are.

But it "cuts it" in my book too lol.

You had me at "when I run the sims..." :grin: