Mount Airy Casino Grand Opening

blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#21
#21
Some Common Ground?

ArcticInferno said:
Actually, I do indeed understand the math behind over-betting, optimal betting, money management, the cost of camouflage, etc.
I'm sure we both read the same books.
Are you willing to accept 10% risk of losing it all, or maybe 5%? Maybe 2% is better?
I’m not constantly calculating the Kelly criterion when I play, but I know what I can and can’t do.
Spreading to 2 hands of $500 each at high counts is something that my bankroll can tolerate.
The acceptable risk of ruin is somewhat relative. But more importantly, the size of the bankroll is very relative.
Some may see $500 x 2 as over betting, while someone else might see it as the normal max bet.
Click to expand...
If you are talking about the difference between betting:
Kelly
.5 Kelly
.25 Kelly
etc

then we are on common ground, there is an element of personal choice involved with what fraction of kelly to bet.

However, :joker::whip:
If your normal bet at that last hand was $400 and you placed the tip in order to get that hand then that one play was incorrect. You violated your betting scheme, whichever fraction of kelly that may be. Why not just throw that $25 on top of any bet? or every bet? At least it will be played for you and not someone else.:joker::whip:

Perhaps you could get the same result with 1 $5 dealer bet?
 
N

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
#22
#22
And more to the point, whatever your bankroll and preferred Kelly fraction, you are giving up a fixed $25 in order to place that bet. In order for that to be correct, the CE of that bet must exceed $25. I'd be willing to bet (an appropriate fraction of my bankroll :eyepatch:) that your CE was less than what you paid in order to place the bet. If CE/WR=.5, that would imply that you would need an EV for the bet of over $50 for it to make sense. (I think that statement is correct...) That means you would need a 12.5% edge on each $400 bet on the next round. I still believe you made the wrong play. Even if your bankroll were so huge that CE approaches WR, you would still need over a 6.25% edge, which is already pretty uncommon.
 
A

ArcticInferno

Well-Known Member
#23
#23
I must admit, I didn't do the detailed calculations at the table.
I was on a positive flux and winning big, so I may have gotten carried away.
I so-ooo much wanted to play an extra hand that I may have over-tipped.
Fortunately, in retrospect, it was worth it in those three occasions.
Maybe next time, I might reduce the tip to $5 or $10.
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
#24
#24
A Big Man

ArcticInferno said:
I must admit, I didn't do the detailed calculations at the table.
I was on a positive flux and winning big, so I may have gotten carried away.
I so-ooo much wanted to play an extra hand that I may have over-tipped.
Fortunately, in retrospect, it was worth it in those three occasions.
Maybe next time, I might reduce the tip to $5 or $10.
Click to expand...
to admit they may have miscalculated. We are all here to learn. No one is perfect.:joker::whip:

I think a $5 or $10 tip to get $800 or so more in action with a very high count is probably worth it. With $10 = 1.25% given up on an $800 bet. So in my earlier example of tc9 and an approx 7% advantage you would still have an over 5.5% advantage.
 
P

psipsimj

Member
#25
#25
surrender

I was looking at the mount airy casino website under table games. They list the basic rules for blackjack here:(Dead link: http://www.mountairycasino.com/gaming/table_games.cfm)

It not only says they allow surrender, it states EARLY surrender. Any one want to try and print out the webpage and then try and surrender with the dealer showing and ace or ten?
 
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