My first 50 hours officially counting cards.

[DSchles]

So, I stand corrected. As it turns out, your result was not at all as unusual as I had suspected. See below.

The reason is that, the 1-10 spread in an H17 shoe game, play all, is really not adequate. The hourly standard deviation ($204.14) is a whopping 23.4 times the hourly expectation ($8.73). Acceptable ratios should be in the 10-15 range.

So, while losing after 650 hours clearly sucks, statistically, for your parameters, it happens about once in every eight such runs (12.35%), and you are, I'm afraid, the one!

Better luck this year.

Don

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Thanks for the chart. If you could have been a fly on the table last year, and watched all my big bets...over and over again, you'd be like..seriousl!!!

all the dealer 16s that got the 4 to push me or the 5 to beat me. I get it..15% of the time that statistically will happen...maybe on a bad 3 months it might happen 25% of the time...but, wow, 2019 was crazy!! I remember two different, distinct times where dealer had 11 to 1 blackjack on me....and 7 to 2 black jack...the only times I was tracking that. I am sure that happened more.

One damn shoe, the dealer had (4) damn blackjacks in the high count....but, luckily, the ACE showed first EVERY TIME so I bought insurance all 4 times.

It has not happened the opposite way to where I had 3 or 4 BJs in the same shoe. I have not had (2) BJs in the same shoe at a max bet count yet.

So...2019 is done with, thank goodness!!!!! Moving on!

Ive constantly been getting the damn 6,10 in the high counts with the dealer showing 10 in the hole. ARGHH!!!!!

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Don, what is the game rules, deck size that you play the most? Do you play mostly 6 deck?

 

[DSchles]

Don, what is the game rules, deck size that you play the most? Do you play mostly 6 deck?

Haven't played a lot recently. In Vegas, I played DD in the old days when rules were great. Also, good 6-deck games with S17, DAS, LS, and, occasionally, RSA. Almost NEVER played H17 ... ever! (I understand those days are now a memory.)

Also, A.C. in the halcyon days with early surrender but then many good shoe opportunities. You need to think of a bigger spread if and when you can afford it. Or, mostly back-count.

Don

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

My first year (2019), with a $5,000 bank roll...I played for 650 hours and lost $300.

So far this year, I have played for 60 hours and I am down $500.

Last night, my biggest bet was $70, but the dealer got the BJ, not me.

The other day, I had 9,2 against dealer 10. I double down and get the 8 card for 19....Dealer had another 10, for a total of 20.

Such is life.

In my hundreds of hours, I have not had a MAJOR positive swing. But...just got to keep playing. The life of a red chipper!

At least I get the following from Boyd casinos this year:

12 free nights in vegas, with $300 on food
4 free nights in Bahamas
1 cruise to Caribbean.

That is a lot of hours...I hope that you are just playing for fun and not trying to make money.
Your EV is very small with that game, ramp and spread. And I hope you don't have travel expenses, etc.

 

[KewlJ]

In my experience, low limit games are usually more crowded resulting in fewer, usually far fewer than the universally used 100 rounds per hour. Especially if it is a game with side bets as many of the low limit tables tend to be. So I suspect the total rounds may be half or even less of what was calculated in Don's simulation.

Now that said, I myself have gone through 4 different periods of 40,000 rounds resulting in a loss. For me, these periods usually consist of a fairly large down turn and slow recovery.

Such a period is frustrating I know, but I am not sure we are to a large enough sample size, that we should assume anything is wrong. Shoe games can be brutal like this.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

In my experience, low limit games are usually more crowded resulting in fewer, usually far fewer than the universally used 100 rounds per hour. Especially if it is a game with side bets as many of the low limit tables tend to be. So I suspect the total rounds may be half or even less of what was calculated in Don's simulation.

Now that said, I myself have gone through 4 different periods of 40,000 rounds resulting in a loss. For me, these periods usually consist of a fairly large down turn and slow recovery.

Such a period is frustrating I know, but I am not sure we are to a large enough sample size, that we should assume anything is wrong. Shoe games can be brutal like this.

Yeah, I need to eventually get back on the $10 tables with 1 or 2 other players.

I wish my bank roll was 10k, but it isn't. Was just trying to lower risk, but i may do some wonging in on weekends for a while. Also, it's a new year, well see what happens!

 

[Counting_Is_Fun]

In my experience, low limit games are usually more crowded resulting in fewer, usually far fewer than the universally used 100 rounds per hour. Especially if it is a game with side bets as many of the low limit tables tend to be. So I suspect the total rounds may be half or even less of what was calculated in Don's simulation.

Now that said, I myself have gone through 4 different periods of 40,000 rounds resulting in a loss. For me, these periods usually consist of a fairly large down turn and slow recovery.

Such a period is frustrating I know, but I am not sure we are to a large enough sample size, that we should assume anything is wrong. Shoe games can be brutal like this.

Agree and if the true rounds per hour is half, then he is doing all this for like $5 per hour. That is before any expenses, and assuming he even lasts for the "long run".
Nothing wrong with that I guess. But if it was me then I would just get a job at say McDonalds instead of playing BJ and casinos.

 

[JohnCrover]

Yeah, I need to eventually get back on the $10 tables with 1 or 2 other players.

I wish my bank roll was 10k, but it isn't. Was just trying to lower risk, but i may do some wonging in on weekends for a while. Also, it's a new year, well see what happens!

It's those deep negative counts that really hurt you. Try to reduce the frequency at which you play those whenever possible.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

It's those deep negative counts that really hurt you. Try to reduce the frequency at which you play those whenever possible.

My losses come from the bigger bets on the high counts.

I still wong out. Just have had the craziest "unluck" in the positive counts. But, not so crazy that I am losing big money.

I lost $300 last year. This year, in 60 hours, I am down $400.

 

[JohnCrover]

To have a run that bad I don't doubt you're seeing some ugly stuff when the money's out there but the pennies at a time you're losing on those $5 bets aren't helping. If you were to dump -2 or lower counts I wouldn't be surprised if the chance of you having the results you're having thus far would reduce drastically to below 5%. I know it's not so easy to avoid every negative count. Ducking them is highly situational but you need to do the best you can without looking conspicuous.

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

To have a run that bad I don't doubt you're seeing some ugly stuff when the money's out there but the pennies at a time you're losing on those $5 bets aren't helping. If you were to dump -2 or lower counts I wouldn't be surprised if the chance of you having the results you're having thus far would reduce drastically to below 5%. I know it's not so easy to avoid every negative count. Ducking them is highly situational but you need to do the best you can without looking conspicuous.

Ok, fair enough.

I am being convinced to go ahead and stick to the $10 tables...and wong out right when it goes -1. For sure, -2.

Fri & Sat nights are the easiest nights to wong in though...so going to do that this weekend.

New year. Hope it goes well!!!!!

At the same time...damn...i am REALLY REALLY good at betting big when the dealer gets blackjack and 2 card 20s!!! Like REALLY GOOD AT IT!

 

[BoSox]

Fri & Sat nights are the easiest nights to wong in though...so going to do that this weekend.

Could you explain that, as at those times you would think that the tables would be almost full?

 

[kcchiefsfan1982]

Could you explain that, as at those times you would think that the tables would be almost full?

yeah, im my home town, on week days, the two $5 tables are full, then only a few players on $10.

on weekends, they open up extra pits, more tables then needed, almost always 3 or 4 tables w a couple players on them.

on week days, seeing a guy constantly switch tables is very noticeable.

by the way, our casino is big and very busy on weekends.

 

[Cookingwithcards]

Ok, fair enough.

I am being convinced to go ahead and stick to the $10 tables...and wong out right when it goes -1. For sure, -2

Fri & Sat nights are the easiest nights to wong in though...so going to do that this weekend.

New year. Hope it goes well!!!!!

At the same time...damn...i am REALLY REALLY good at betting big when the dealer gets blackjack and 2 card 20s!!! Like REALLY GOOD AT IT!

I am also new to counting and I am trying to learn as much as I can. I was wondering what count you use, if Hi-Lo, do you use Illus.18 and Fab 4? Are you still planning on playing the $10 tables whenever the Casinos get up and robbing....I mean running? Thanks and good luck!