Need some help calculating RoR, ER, etc

[itakeyourmoney]

I started learning how to count a few months ago, but since I'm in college I don't quite have the income to do this at a profitable level. However, recently I've been going with my friends and just counting while they play and I've made about $200 by having them add money to their bets for me when the count is high. I usually wait until at least a TC +3, and I was just curious as to what kind of RoR I might be looking at if I go to the casino with like $500 and only play on high true counts.

6d, h17, da2, das, 70-75% pen, they offer both no surrender games and late surrender but LS is $10 min and my friends are usually not willing to risk that kind of money--so if it's not too much, perhaps a calc with both no surrender and late surrender.

I've been playing 3 units at TC +3, 4 units at +4, 5 units at +5, and 6 units at anything higher than that. (Please let me know if there is also a better spread than the one I'm using.)

It's been awhile since I've posted on here so if there's any more info needed just let me know.

 

[FLASH1296]

What you need to know.

Your friends will do much better with the Late Surrender $10 game
then they will at the $5 game, presuming that they are not attempting to
play with just a few hundred bucks.

A H17 shoe game with poor penetration is a BAD, (not even marginal) game.

Adding Late Surrender makes the game a playable marginal situation though.

The game becomes playable, but only with an aggressive bet-spread.

At minimum a 12-1 bet ramp will suffice. 18-1 is what i would recommend.

That presumes that a sufficient bankroll exists.

L.S. offers an extremely valuable improvement to the Basic Strategy player on the order of .20%
That means that ⅓ of the house edge is negated. Think about that.

Late Surrender is worth about double that, IF offered to a Card Counter; because the chances of a bet being "surrendered" increases considerably as the True Count rises.

Besides reducing the House Advantage it very significantly reduces the flux to be encountered; meaning that the variance is reduced, and with that there is a significant improvement to the player's "Risk of Ruin".

In very plain English, you will be a lot "luckier" in the Late Surrender games.[/COLOR][/SIZE]

 

[Kasi]

I've been playing 3 units at TC +3, 4 units at +4, 5 units at +5, and 6 units at anything higher than that...

The shortest answer, as always, best bet is buy a sim to answer all your q's.

It almost sounds like you are back-counting thru friends. Which is very cool with me, if so. Turning a NME game into one that in essence allows mid-shoe entry? BEA-utiful as Jim Carrey would say.

If you are playing "3 units at TC+3", when are you actually playing one unit? Could it be that what you call "3 units" is what I would call "one unit"?

Nothing better than using one's friend's who will never know the diff anyway for a good opportunity lol.

It's why I got married.

OK - that was just kidding lol.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

My friend plays and I just have him bet extra money for me (so if he's betting like $5 per hand and I tell him to bet $20 then he'll bet $25 and if we win I get $40 [my initial 20 + 20 from the 25 he won]--sorry, I probably made this a lot more confusing than it needed to be, but I'm sure you know what I mean). So basically I'm just wonging in and out whenever I like.

For "units" I was just using the table min of $5, but with my scale there (of 3,4,5 unit bets) I would never bet a single unit on a hand. So my spread could be changed so that I'm betting one unit at like +3, but then it would be harder to calculate becuase unless I'm going up by $20 each time I'd be betting like 1.25 units on +4 or something like that haha.

I don't own a cim program, and was actually kinda hoping one of you nice gents could help me out, unless, that is, there is a free program available somewhere online.

 

[Kasi]

My friend plays and I just have him bet extra money for me (so if he's betting like $5 per hand and I tell him to bet $20 then he'll bet $25 and if we win I get $40 [my initial 20 + 20 from the 25 he won]--sorry, I probably made this a lot more confusing than it needed to be, but I'm sure you know what I mean). So basically I'm just wonging in and out whenever I like.

For "units" I was just using the table min of $5, but with my scale there (of 3,4,5 unit bets) I would never bet a single unit on a hand. So my spread could be changed so that I'm betting one unit at like +3, but then it would be harder to calculate becuase unless I'm going up by $20 each time I'd be betting like 1.25 units on +4 or something like that haha.

I don't own a cim program, and was actually kinda hoping one of you nice gents could help me out, unless, that is, there is a free program available somewhere online.

I don't know - sounds like a great situation to me - you can bet as if the game is mid-shoe entry is allowed even if it is not actuallly allowed with no extra cost to yourself using and abusing your friend to continuously bet every round.

If so, your min unit, in what you suggest seems to be $20 - table min has nothing to do with it. Your total roll does not know what the table min is, it only knows what the $min amount is you choose to bet and, therefore, how many min bets you have in your total roll.

In effect, it sounds to me, you are able to "back-count" with impunity here choosing when and if enter with how much any round you witness.

So, it's not really very complicated. Sounds like you are betting 1 unit ($20) at some TC and up to 3 units ($60) at other points.

If so, 1 unit=$20. If $10K roll, 500 units in roll. Very possible you might have low ROR even with only 200 units. (that is you could bet $40 as a min unit.)

Whatever, $min unit is waht your $min bet is, basically.

What matters is how many units you ahve in a roll and how many of those units you choose to bet how often in oreder to have a ROR you feel comfortable with.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

Any idea what my RoR would be if my bankroll was like $1k (with maybe $500 brought to each session)? I know it's low, but would it work if I were to adjust my spread, so maybe my min bet is $5 instead of $20.

I'd like to be able to practice this while only risking a small amount of money, and if it's successful then I can invest more into it once I can afford it.

 

[Kasi]

Any idea what my RoR would be if my bankroll was like $1k (with maybe $500 brought to each session)? I know it's low, but would it work if I were to adjust my spread, so maybe my min bet is $5 instead of $20.
I'd like to be able to practice this while only risking a small amount of money, and if it's successful then I can invest more into it once I can afford it.

Well, I sort of hesitate to even answer in that I don't have a sim either.

On the assumption, it sounds to me like you are actually "back-counting", basically meaning it's as if you were sitting there able to view every round played but able to bet on any hand you choose to. In other words, if you chose to, you could actually never play a round at a TC less than +2.

But your thought of having a $5 unit is a good one, the more so if you are actually able to "back-count".

Such is the power of back-counting that a couple hundred unit roll can have a very low lifetime risk.

You can probably practice for free on various softwares available with no risk at all, if you wanted rather than even risk a small amount of money while you "learn".

Anyway, I've attached 2 Tables from Don's book for a back-counter playing a 4.5/6 H17 DAS LS game and Table 10.59 for a 4.5/6 H17 DAS game without LS.

Disclaimers - I think the tables are assuming one is using HI-LO as the counting system and one is also using the I18 indexes. And that TC's are floored, not rounded. And, when "hourly", you actually "see" 100/hds/hr which you likely won't. While the unit spreads listed there for 1-2,1-3 & 1-4 are optimal, from a practical point of view, it cannot calc an optimal spread for greater spreads (like 1-6 or more).

Anyway, you can change most of the stuff in red and see what happens fwiw.

I could drone on - I'll try to answer any questions you may have as best I can.

Basically, it's just a broad template intended to, ideally, actually be able to measure your "success" 1000 rounds later from now from a sim output.

 

[Kasi]

Your friends will do much better with the Late Surrender $10 game
then they will at the $5 game, L.S. offers an extremely valuable improvement to the Basic Strategy player on the order of .20%

Well, I'll keep it short and sweet.

If his friends are BSplayers, they are better off flat-betting the $5 game with no surrender vs flat-betting the $10 min game with LS.

Where in the world do you get the improvement from a late surender rule in, say, 6 decks is 0.2% for a BS player?

It couln't be worth even half that to a BS player?

Just asking lol.

 

[itakeyourmoney]

I'm not really that interested in how my friends do lol, they're happy just to be playing. I'm the only one who goes with the intention to seriously make money, however little it may be. They play the $5 table because it's the cheapest, they can't really afford to play the $10 table.

Thanks for the help guys.