# of hands to hit 3sd variance?

[Dopple]

Is this number computable, I would think it would be? I have not scoured any literature but thought it might be informative to post this query. It varies from rules, skill, etc. but I would think it could be found.

 

[JohnCrover]

Is this number computable, I would think it would be? I have not scoured any literature but thought it might be informative to post this query. It varies from rules, skill, etc. but I would think it could be found.

Your N0 is not linear so it's important to note that if your N0 is 20K it will not be 40k and 60k for 2 standard deviations and 3 standard deviations, respectively. If your N0 is 20k then it will take 80k hands to hit 2 standard deviations and 180k hands to hit 3 standard deviations.
Please confirm someone, thank you.

 

[Zero]

Are you asking about N0 or just EV? Because you could be over 3SD away from EV in as few as 12 or 13 hands (depending on your advantage and rules). Assuming a $100 bet size with a 1% advantage and an SD of 1.16, -3SD/+3SD at 12 hands would be -$1193.51/$1217.51 and at 13 hands would be -$1241.73/$1267.73. So if you sat down and lost your first 12 hands, your -$1200 result would be more than 3SD away from EV. Likewise if you won your first 13 hands, your +$1300 result would be more than 3SD away from EV.

0

 

[Dopple]

Thanks Zero. I was just thinking about EV and not NO. You make an interesting point but it must happen pretty rarely. If a negative 3SD event occurs I hope it happens once I get more reestablished in the game i.e. closer to my NO.

 

[Zero]

You make an interesting point but it must happen pretty rarely.

Mathematically you will be within +/- 3SD of EV 99.7% of the time. It doesn't matter how many hands you've played (provided you've played enough to actually reach +/- 3SD as I pointed out before). So yeah, 0.3% is pretty rare.

0