Press til you hurt

[Dopple]

I have yet to feel any real hurt as far as long term or devestating losses. I have had so down times that made me think about the game but I always come back. In order to maximize my EV I believe I need to press harder until I really start feeling some painful negative variances.

I would like to gain a better understanding of variances and have started another log of play with the last 200 hours accounted for.

From some math I did today I figure after 50,000 hands averaging $20 you have a million in action netting $10,000 @ 1% on average with only a .5% SD giving you a 68% chance of either breaking even or making $20,000.

For the SD I took SQRT(50K) into 1.1.

Once you start working toward that 10k I believe you are establishing a solid EV for your play and can worry less about serious negative variances.

 

[RJT]

I have yet to feel any real hurt as far as long term or devestating losses. I have had so down times that made me think about the game but I always come back. In order to maximize my EV I believe I need to press harder until I really start feeling some painful negative variances.

I would like to gain a better understanding of variances and have started another log of play with the last 200 hours accounted for.

From some math I did today I figure after 50,000 hands averaging $20 you have a million in action netting $10,000 @ 1% on average with only a .5% SD giving you a 68% chance of either breaking even or making $20,000.

For the SD I took SQRT(50K) into 1.1.

Once you start working toward that 10k I believe you are establishing a solid EV for your play and can worry less about serious negative variances.

For the crap games the average counter plays SD of 1.1 is low, 1% advantage is high, have you considered how many hours of play it will take for 50k hands (approx 500 - or 2-3 years of play) and while 1 SD might see you between 0 and 20k, 2SD would put you between -10 and 30k and 3SD would see -20 and 50k and 2 and 3 SD events aren't that rare.

RJT.

 

[matt21]

Once you start working toward that 10k I believe you are establishing a solid EV for your play and can worry less about serious negative variances.

Well, you are still likely to experience serious negative variance but they might not be serious enough to take into a situation where you have a career loss (instead of a career profit).

But its just as likely that you have a -$8k streak regardless how long you have played. but it will probably 'hurt' more if the -$8k swing takes you from +$5k to -$3k as opposed to taking you from +$23k to +$15k. I presume that's what you mean about having to 'worry' less about the variances.

I will assume that you sim your game conditions and know about your N0 etc etc.

Also as your BR grows you will probably increase your bet ramp so the $ swings will get bigger, thus your career-unit position might look better than your $-career position.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I have yet to feel any real hurt as far as long term or devestating losses. I have had so down times that made me think about the game but I always come back. In order to maximize my EV I believe I need to press harder until I really start feeling some painful negative variances.

I would like to gain a better understanding of variances and have started another log of play with the last 200 hours accounted for.

From some math I did today I figure after 50,000 hands averaging $20 you have a million in action netting $10,000 @ 1% on average with only a .5% SD giving you a 68% chance of either breaking even or making $20,000.

For the SD I took SQRT(50K) into 1.1.

Once you start working toward that 10k I believe you are establishing a solid EV for your play and can worry less about serious negative variances.

What the hell, man, you don't want to feel hurt at the blackjack table! Count your blessings and keep up the good work.

If you need to feel pain, after your next really good session contract the services of a dominatrix.:whip: Better to give your money to her than back to a casino.

 

[Dopple]

Thanks Mr. Automatic Monkey that helps. LOL

The feedback has helped even though the post was a little rough at the edges.

When we talk about 2SD outcomes occurring 5% of the time, it is a percent of what time? On average as a percent of time played?

I think after getting a good feel for AP table play the next level of understanding perhaps could come from understanding and getting a feel for variances and all the uncertainties that accompany them.

To literally extract as much wealth as I can from this game I do in fact have to make a serious inventory of how much I am willing to risk not for a year but for an entire life.

 

[rukus]

I think after getting a good feel for AP table play the next level of understanding perhaps could come from understanding and getting a feel for variances and all the uncertainties that accompany them.

that should come before you ever sit down at a table and risk your hard earned money (if it's not hard-earned i suppose do what you want :devil!

 

[Kasi]

The feedback has helped even though the post was a little rough at the edges.
When we talk about 2SD outcomes occurring 5% of the time, it is a percent of what time? On average as a percent of time played?

Hi Dopple

Brain a little fried and, I'm used to thinking in "units" lol but,maybe, a few points.

When you say "avg bet of "$20" at an "avg adv of 1%", typically, when counting, your "avg bet" might be, say, 2.5 units. ("Unit" being expressed as a min $bet).
Typically, your Stan Dev/rd might be 4 or 5 units/rd (again expressed as a min umit). Of course it can widely vary - just pulling crap out of the air but for maybe a play-all AC game say.

That "1.1" you use is basically assuming a SD of 1.1 units for a "flat-betting" guy.

I don't know where you get SD of 0.5% (1.1/sqrt of 50K?) but, if, say, you actually are a flat-betting guy betting $20/rd in rules so favorable your avg adv is 1%, it would be more like EV after 50000 rds is, as you say, $1MM*.5%=$10K. (Again adv % would assume amt bet on initial rd only, not total "action", like you maybe seem to think - no big deal lol). And, if you were flat-betting $20/rd, then SD would be sqrt of 50K times 1.1 units = 246 units or, in $'s, 246*$20=$4920. So, your results would fall into a range of $5K to 15K 68% of the time not 0 to $10K.

When we talk about 2SD or whatever, we mean that, for a SPECIFIED amount of time, results will fall within 2SD 95% of the time and, therefore, 5% of the time will fall outside that range - 2.5% of the time on the "good" side and the other 2.5% on the "bad" side.

So, when Matt says "its just as likely that you have a -$8k streak regardless how long you have played", he doesn't really mean that becasue losing $8K might be 4SD from expected after 1000 hands ("time") but the same $8K loss might be well within 1SD after 20,000 or more rds.

Love your attitude of trying to get to the next level and try to understand "luck" better" lol - struggle with it all the time myself lol.

You've applied "math" to your last 200 hrs or whatever? - all well and good - that's all I do lol - but, ultimately, if it's for real money, is get a sim and learn to understand, best you can, what it may be telling you.

So, maybe 25.5 hrs and down 360 units later, while likely betting in 15 different ways one would need 15 separate sims to measure each by, you don't have to ask how "bad" your "luck" has been and conclude, obviously, the casino must be cheating becasue, after all, all you really know, is I'm really, really good at adding and subtracting 1 from a whole number. And, who knows, maybe even dividing whole numbers by whole numbers and, even let's say, just ignore any pesky fractions that may occur after the first digit.

If one don't know what to expect from one's play and one's betting, be it after a "shoe" or "session" or "x hrs later", one likely also don't know what to expect from the next round one plays.

And, therefore, one don't know jack, do one lol?

I might, basically, just be a -EV voodoo-betting guy, forget the "might" - pretty much am lol - but, I can tell you it was a cold, cold day in hell before I'd play a hand without at least thinking I knew what to expect from it and believe I'd be able to measure my "flat-betting luck" at any point in time in the future, even if I did not "flat-bet" every rd, which, I almost never did lol.

You guys tell me (not you Dopple - just ranting lol) - what is it like playing the next rd with apparently no idea maybe not so much of what to "expect" from it but, more likely, no idea of what the liklihood of results falling between x and y is after any specified period of time?

What is it that makes you ask us 1000's of rds later rather than having asked yourself the same question 1 hand, shoe, hour, session later?

Whatever - happy to try to answer any q's you may have Dopple.

 

[Dopple]

Thanks for the help everyone and your time put into these comprehensive answers. I will keep collecting my data and look into getting a sim. I still need to learn more about SCORE and NO but I have enough on the plate for now. I know I win but am not sure just how much now and am playing around with my betting ramps to try and get up better on the bling-bling.

I have a new book from Wong to read and may fool around with a couple decks alone with a positive count (taking out some lows) just because when I win in play it is just the same as winning at the table. It will happen again and I am proving it so it gives me fun, but not money.

I just hope I dont use up too much positive variance because then when I play for real money I will be due for only negative variance.:joker: