Problem + Question

[chucknorrispow]

Hello, I'm new to these boards. This message board seem's pretty active so hopefully you guys might be able to help.

I'm not relitively new to card counting but then again I've never been in actual play. I've read Beat the Dealer by Thorp a couple times and its practicaly worn to shreds. Once in awhile I hear someone suggest another book but the technique Thorp describes is very simple for me (I use his simple point-count system) and me and the fact that he gives references to me gives the system much credence. Also because the MIT kids used something like this system I figgure it can't be all that bad.

Anyways I've been practicing off and on for about 2 years straight, dealing a couple hundred hands to myself a few nights a week and playing online BJ when I'm pretty certain that the program dosn't reshufle after every hand. BTW the BJ program on this site is probably the best I've found so far. But my problem is that while I never go broke, I also don't average a profit very often. I either play so long that I get board or I break even. If I keep playing I do eventualy make a small profit (usualy around 30%) but for most of the time, which can usualy be a long time, I play at probably a 20-30% loss before making a profit. I know that the system is working because more often than not the system completely recoups my losses and brining me back to the break-even point when the count is high.

Now the way I see it I can either learn one of the more percise counting methods which I don't really want to commit to becasue of school and work and am not to keen on keeping flash cards on me again, limit my top bet which is at about 5X my smallest bet so that I don't take large losses when the count is mid-high and I run into bad luck, or increase my lowest bet so that fewer wins will yeild the same profit.

Do any of these ideas sound viable alone or in combination to one another to fix my problem or do you guys have any other ideas? I can pretty much count in my sleep by now and I have basic strategy memorized backwards and forwards. I just need to tighten up my technique before putting any real money down on a table.

Anyways thanks for any help you guys might be able to give.
Cheers.

 

[aussiecounter]

Hey mate, welcome to the Forums.

First up, why did you choose to learn Thorpe's Point Count system? I have little knowledge of it myself, but it is spoken of as being 'cumbersome' and hard to learn etc. To me, it is 40+ years old, so I chose Hi-Lo when learning.
As far as I know, the MIT teams use/d HI-Lo, probably with quite a few indices and a few other tricks.

I hope you are talking about free online games, not real money, as that would be a quick path to Empty Wallet Land. Even online casinos that offer games that aren't shuffled after every hand are not worth playing at, because they only ever go down to about 10%-20% penetration max, and you ever get a high enough count to make back your losses. The only reason to play at them is for the bonuses and occasional favourable promotions.

As to your question, I'm not quite sure what it is you are asking, but I'd tentatively recommend that you switch to Hi-Lo. Its pretty simple to learn, except maybe the indices(which aren't really Hi-Lo, but BS), but then I don't have a clue as to the deficiencies in the system that you currently use.
What is it that you are after????? If you were more specific you'll probably get a lot better responses.
As to your betting, I hope that you are using a count dependent bet spread.

 

[chucknorrispow]

Hey there

Well I chose Thorp mainly because his simple point-count system was very easy for me to learn. The simple point-count system is simpler than his complete point-count system which he also refers to as the "high-low" system so the simple system seems like an intermediate between just knowing BS and using high-low. I just might go ahead and learn this one seeing as how it seem's that quite a few people use it and it shouldn't take that much work since I'm practialy half way there already.

I guess what my question boiled down to is what is the average rate should I expect to win as in "this much" percent of yoru bankroll in "this much" time. Are those long periods of taking a high loss that could be as high as half my bankroll only to win enough durring that breif high count period normal? Statisticaly it seems that I should be close to even playing perfect BS and that periods of possitive and negative counts should average out to be even (which for me seems to be never. Seems like after learning to count, the game for me is to see when the count gets possitive and screw everything else ).

As for playing on online casinos that's something I wouldn't even dream of doing other than just for fun with no ideas of making any money since every one that Iv'e seen reshuffles after every hand. Online casinos seem fishy to me anyways.

And since you mentioned, my bets are count influanced.

I think that once I get everything ironed out then actual casino play should be very fun. There are 8 indian casinos that I can think of within an hour from me, all of which the dealers shuffle the cards and not those automatic shuffling machines I've heard about on this board , and rules benificial to the player.

Cheers

 

[aussiecounter]

Like I said before, I'd recommend Hi-Lo, but I'm really not sure of the differences between Hi-Lo and what you are using right now.

Win rates:
A poor to average blackjack player (average man on the street), will lose about 5-10% of what he bets. Example: if he is playing $10 per hand, for 100 hands an hour, for 10 hours over a weekend, he would have made
$10x100betsx10hrs so $10,000 worth of bets in total. He would lose 5-10% of this. So, say he has some idea how to play, he'll lose around $500 (5% of$10,000).
A good Basic Strategy player would cut his loss rate down to between 1% and 0.5%. So using the same figures from above but with 0.5% instead of 5%, the Basic Strategy player would lose about $50.
A card counter on the other hand could expect GAINS of around 0.5% to 1%, so on his $10,000 worth of bets over 10hours he would expect to make about $100, or $10 an hour.
Of course, these example are only relevant when talking about the long term. Card counters do not walk into a casino thinking they are going to make X amount of money that night. They walk in knowing that in the long run, they can expect to make X amount of money, or somewhere near X amount. As a card counter, you WILL have nights where you lose big $$$, but you'll also have nights where you win big too. A lot of the time you'll have a small win or a small loss. In the LONG RUN you should win more than you lose.

The example above are not exact and are not intended to be, they are just very general figures for use as an easy example, but they are in the ball park I believe.
More experienced people, please correct me if any of that is not right.

With the bet spread, what I meant was do you just bet 1 unit on a low or negative count and then 5 units on a high count, or do you bet 1 unit on a low or neg count and then 2 units on TC of 2, 3 units on TC of 3, 4 units on TC of 4, 5 units on TC of 5? Or something like that?

As a personal recommendation, I think you should go out and try the Casinos, at the lowest limit you can find (like $3). Don't wait until you "get everything ironed out", you should just get out and try it, you'll have a lot of fun. Even just playing basic strategy your odds will only be about 1-2% different to a decent counter. So if you go with $50, you shouldn't lose it all, in fact, playing for 4 hours in a night at $3 tables, the odds are that you'll only lose about $10. Of course, you could sit down and lose 15 hands in a row and lose most of it, but thats blackjack.

 

[zengrifter]

Here is the next step - HiLoLite

And PS, you need not go beyond this step in terms of playing and betting efficiencies. After you master HiLoLite, your primary focus will be proper bet-sizing and game selection criteria. zg
(Dead link: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/hilolite.htm)


zengrifter interview -
http://cardcounter.com/Interview_Zen_Grifter.htm (Archive copy)

 

[KenSmith]

aussiecounter, just for clarification, the public's play at blackjack isn't as bad as you describe. Studies have put the average player's disadvantage at blackjack at around 2%. Basic strategy at most games yields a loss of around 0.5%, so just learning basic strategy cuts your expected loss to 1/4 as much.

 

[Mikeaber]

aussiecounter, just for clarification, the public's play at blackjack isn't as bad as you describe. Studies have put the average player's disadvantage at blackjack at around 2%. Basic strategy at most games yields a loss of around 0.5%, so just learning basic strategy cuts your expected loss to 1/4 as much.

I wish that "expected loss" always turned out to be .5% :cry:

 

[TENNBEAR]

Answer I Hope

Chucknrrispow, Clearly you have learned to play BJ. Mastering Basic Strategy, and card counting, with plenty of practice. Beat the Dealer is an great book written by Thorpe a Mathamatics Proffessor over 40 years ago.
Knowing how to play BJ is only part of the game, you also need to know how to gamble at blackjack. Money management, Discipline, and A lot of other combined information will greatly improve your game. I suggest your next book to be written by a proffessional Blackjack player. They are great reading and will answer all your questions. I have read several and I wiil suggest Play Blackjack like the Pros by Kevin Blackwood. However there are many other good books out there, several on this website.

 

[Quinc]

hey zen do you still use your Grifters Gambit? also how is your tv show comming along?

 

[zengrifter]

Consolidation Betting (aka Grifter's Gambit)...

... is my favorite way to play, but it can properly be used only in semi-rare circumstances - deep non-rule-of-6 1D games and exceptional penetration 2D games... and mostly heads up.

The Tv pilot, naaw, no forward progress there. zg

 

[Quinc]

... is my favorite way to play, but it can properly be used only in semi-rare circumstances - deep non-rule-of-6 1D games and exceptional penetration 2D games... and mostly heads up.

The Tv pilot, naaw, no forward progress there. zg

whats deep non-rule-of-6?

in reno you can get single and double decks almost everywhere and be the only one at the table.

 

[aussiecounter]

aussiecounter, just for clarification, the public's play at blackjack isn't as bad as you describe. Studies have put the average player's disadvantage at blackjack at around 2%. Basic strategy at most games yields a loss of around 0.5%, so just learning basic strategy cuts your expected loss to 1/4 as much.

Thanks Ken.
Although I wasnt sure of the figures exactly, I was kind of using those as they present an easy example (round figures). I think I got the important figures about right though, those for BS players and counters.
Thanks for the clarification.