question about decreasing counts

[ohbehave]

Hi everyone, new member. I'm fairly new to counting and not yet using it at the tables. But I'm reading a lot. I have a question I haven't seen addressed in counting forums and would like to see some discussion. Maybe I've just missed it.

Counting strategy indicates to increase the bet as the count increases. But what I see is that when the count is decreasing is when the 10 cards are coming out. So should one and how does one capitalize on a count that is decreasing when the standard play is to either min bet or get out?

 

[BJinNJ]

Realize that...

there is NO TREND to the count.
Just because some high cards have come out, DO NOT
expect them to continue to come out. Each hand must
be played individually. Use your true count to determine
your bet for each round. The rest of the high cards
might never come out, because they're behind the cut
card.

BJinNJ

 

[cardcounter0]

Actually, there is a tendency. The True Count is most likely to remain the same round to round.

 

[callipygian]

Counting strategy indicates to increase the bet as the count increases. But what I see is that when the count is decreasing is when the 10 cards are coming out. So should one and how does one capitalize on a count that is decreasing when the standard play is to either min bet or get out?

(1) Welcome!

(2) I think you're confusing two issues. One is an increasing count (a count which is going up, regardless of where it is), and one is a high count (a count that is high, regardless of whether it is increasing or decreasing).

The most profitable slug of cards to play is one where the count is decreasing - that is, many 10's and aces are coming out. However, unless you are psychic, you will never know exactly when the count is decreasing.

Instead, when the count is high, you count on the fact that the count is more likely to decrease than increase. If you do it right, it works more often than it doesn't.

Remember, if the shoe finishes at a true count of +10, you were playing with a horrible disadvantage the whole way through the shoe, because the count kept increasing! The card counter's perfect shoe is one where the shoe rises to a true count of +10 on the second to last hand, and then plummets to -10 on the last hand.

 

[ohbehave]

Thank you for the welcome and the info.

I'd like to ask why is it thats a perfect shoe if the count is steadily increasing throughout the shoe.

Doesn't that mean that small cards are coming out with greater frequency than big cards making it difficult to get wins.

And then aren't you at your max bet on one final hand which could quite possibly lose even though the round is heavily 10-card weighted?

 

[HarryKuntz]

Thank you for the welcome and the info.

I'd like to ask why is it thats a perfect shoe if the count is steadily increasing throughout the shoe.

Doesn't that mean that small cards are coming out with greater frequency than big cards making it difficult to get wins.

And then aren't you at your max bet on one final hand which could quite possibly lose even though the round is heavily 10-card weighted?

IMHO, a perfect shoe (using counting techniques) is one where the count raises and drops equally in your favour, for example when the TC is continually rising to around the +4/5 mark and dropping again back down to zero.

The problem with a continually growing count or a very high count is that it can be expensive getting to those high cards, if the count continues to rise until the cut card, you'll won't reap the benefits of the advantage, unless your able to shuffle track the slug of unplayed high cards.