Question about progressions

[MetaEdge]

Could a person reduce the house edge by a small amount by using a progression?

Like, lets say I raise my bet 1 unit every time I lose, and lower it 1 unit every time I win. 5x is the max. If you win on a min bet, then you wait till you win twice to raise it again. If you lose on a max bet then you wait till you win twice to lower it.

This would be based off the assumption that you are more likely to win when the count decreases and more likely to lose when the count increases. Therefore there is a higher chance of the count being higher after losing multiply hands. I know the if there is a gain it would be very small. But it's easier then actually counting cards, and it reduces the cost of the game.

I would never play this system because I know you'd still be losing money with it. But it might be ideal for someone unwilling to learn to count.

What do you think?

 

[tthree]

Could a person reduce the house edge by a small amount by using a progression?

Like, lets say I raise my bet 1 unit every time I lose, and lower it 1 unit every time I win. 5x is the max. If you win on a min bet, then you wait till you win twice to raise it again. If you lose on a max bet then you wait till you win twice to lower it.

This would be based off the assumption that you are more likely to win when the count decreases and more likely to lose when the count increases. Therefore there is a higher chance of the count being higher after losing multiply hands. I know the if there is a gain it would be very small. But it's easier then actually counting cards, and it reduces the cost of the game.

I would never play this system because I know you'd still be losing money with it. But it might be ideal for someone unwilling to learn to count.

What do you think?

NO. All you do is increase the expectation of that hand by raising your bet. If the count has you at an advantage you double your expected win amount. For a disadvantage you double your expected lose amount. The other effect is huge variance. IT greatly increases the cost of the game. It is the equivalent of 5 different flat bet sessions happening at the same time. Only when your bets change with your advantage do you change your expectation.

If you are a gambler not an AP then it is a tactic you can use to win more often but loss more money in the long run.

 

[iCountNTrack]

Could a person reduce the house edge by a small amount by using a progression?

Like, lets say I raise my bet 1 unit every time I lose, and lower it 1 unit every time I win. 5x is the max. If you win on a min bet, then you wait till you win twice to raise it again. If you lose on a max bet then you wait till you win twice to lower it.

This would be based off the assumption that you are more likely to win when the count decreases and more likely to lose when the count increases. Therefore there is a higher chance of the count being higher after losing multiply hands. I know the if there is a gain it would be very small. But it's easier then actually counting cards, and it reduces the cost of the game.

I would never play this system because I know you'd still be losing money with it. But it might be ideal for someone unwilling to learn to count.

What do you think?

Very simple answer, cards have no memory, and no emotions, and past wins or losses do not any effect whatsoever on the very next hand you are about to play.

 

[MetaEdge]

I knew this method wouldn't be able to create positive EV. I was hoping it could at least reduce the house edge by a small amount. Forgot to consider the effect of a higher bet in a negative edge. It seems like the best way to reduce how much you lose in EV without counting would be by flat betting the table min and playing perfect basic strategy.

Of course I'm still going to stick with card counting.

 

[QFIT]

I knew this method wouldn't be able to create positive EV. I was hoping it could at least reduce the house edge by a small amount. Forgot to consider the effect of a higher bet in a negative edge. It seems like the best way to reduce how much you lose in EV without counting would be by flat betting the table min and playing perfect basic strategy.

Of course I'm still going to stick with card counting.

The effect you are talking about exists. But, it is like the Coriolis effect. So minor, that it is only important if you are trying to hit the moon.

 

[MangoJ]

I agree with QFIT, win/loss percentage is correlated to the count, which is correlated to your advantage.
First, your wins and your losses are such a poor indicator of advantage. If it were each counter would win almost all sessions without major downswings.

Second, be just using your last 5 hands wins or losses, you not also use a weak indicator of the count, you also use a weak indicator of a count with an effective 5-round penetration - which is weak by itself.

If your friend refuses to count, let him back-bet your hand when you give him a signal. Or back-bet your friend's hand if he is at least pretty solid on BS play.

 

[pogostick]

A simple answer is NO!