Risk of ruin calc request.

[UK-21]

Can anyone rattle the keys and let me know my session RoR for my game:

6 Deck
ENHC-UK (only naturals can be insured)
70% pen
1-8 spread (2-TC+2, 4-TC+3, 8-TC=>+4)
5-7 players at the table for all games (typical UK conditions)
150 hands (2 hours play assuming 75 hands per hour).
session roll of 40 units.

I've thrown some numbers into a spreadsheet and, based on the estimated edge of the game etc etc, three StdDevs on the loss side of the line comes back as 67 units for 150 hands (although 33 units for 75 hands), so I think it must be pretty high.

Many thanks in advance.

Newb99

 

[Kasi]

I've thrown some numbers into a spreadsheet and, based on the estimated edge of the game etc etc, three StdDevs on the loss side of the line comes back as 67 units for 150 hands (although 33 units for 75 hands), so I think it must be pretty high.

Well, I don't have a sim so I can't help too much lol.

I can tell you Std Dev are not additive so 3SD cannot be 33 units with 75 rounds and 67 units at 150 rounds. So, your sheet isn't right.

Variance however is additive.

What you need is not the edge of the game but SD and EV per round.

 

[moo321]

Off the top of my head I could tell you that 1-8 is not a good spread at all for a shoe game.