RoR for Basic Strategy Players?

[Carmine782]

Good Evening, I know the odds are against me, but im wondering if there is any way to calculate a Risk of Ruin for a session lasting 3 hours with these features:

$2,000 Starting Bankroll
$100 Flat Betting
Perfect Basic Strategy

 

[RG1]

It depends more on how many hands you play than hours. Assuming 80h/hr, 240 total, I estimate your ROR to be around 14-15%. One standard deviation (15.85%) is about -1838 for 240 hands. So it is a little less than 15.85%.

*This is from a spreedsheet I made, not from a sim. It is just an estimate.

 

[EasyRhino]

Since the house edge doesn't go away, the overall risk of ruin, is, of course, 100%.

The Whiz has a table for the short of question if you just want to make it through a certain number of hands.

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix12.html

 

[sagefr0g]

i tryed using this ROR spread sheet calculator off of bjmath site

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/Betsize/winwayz/tmpweb.htm (Archive copy)

set it up with your 20 units (not even sure if the spread sheet uses units or dollars lol, a win goal of zero, house edge circa -0.5 and std deviation of 1.225....
not so sure about the std deviation number lol......
oh and guessed about 240 rounds.
so i don't have the foggiest if this is right..... sorry but tryed.

oh and by the way i tryed it for just 20 rounds and you get a ROR of about 4.7% for that and then increasing the rounds by just fives starts raising your ror according to this thing shall we say dramatically.

 

[Renzey]

Assuming 80h/hr, 240 total, I estimate your ROR to be around 14-15%. One standard deviation (15.85%) is about -1838 for 240 hands.

Although your chance to be down $2000 or more at the end of 240 hands is roughly 15%, you could indeed be losing more than that at many points during the 240 hands then recover (if you had more ammo), to lose only $2000 at the finish. However, falling $2000 behind during the session consitutes ruin, and this chance looks like roughly 26%.

 

[RG1]

Although your chance to be down $2000 or more at the end of 240 hands is roughly 15%, you could indeed be losing more than that at many points during the 240 hands then recover (if you had more ammo), to lose only $2000 at the finish. However, falling $2000 behind during the session consitutes ruin, and this chance looks like roughly 26%.

Thank you, I overlooked that.

 

[Kasi]

It depends more on how many hands you play than hours. Assuming 80h/hr, 240 total, I estimate your ROR to be around 14-15%. One standard deviation (15.85%) is about -1838 for 240 hands. So it is a little less than 15.85%..

Basically you are right except that you are calculating the chances of finishing 20 units down in 240 hands which assumes you have enough bankroll to sometimes recover when, say, you might be 21 units down but win the next few hands. Unfortunately, in this case, when you get to 20 units down the first time it happens you are busted.

Basically since you'll recover about half the time if you had enough bankroll, I think a good rule of thumb is to double the finishing probability. So probably about 30% ROR.

But the good news is almost half the time he probably won't lose any money lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

have the sim below set up for bankroll $2000 betting one unit per round where a unit=$100. it's for a six deck s17 das lsr nrsa game wit 75%pen heads up play.
so this doesn't tell you where to expect to be at after only say 240 rounds but it does give you a win/rate=-$27.72/hour and standard deviation 11.283/hour.
so i don't know what does that mean in three hours you might be down anywhere between theoretically $33932.16 to up to $33821.28.
so you could probably be ruined (lose $2000.00) or maybe make $33821.28 .
but your ROR is 100% in terms of if you kept doing this in the long run.
well thats just what i think this means but i'm not reallys sure.

edit well hold on here found a calculator that i think fits this lol see very bottom......... 26.26% Trip ROR whew !!!