Russian Roulette

[StandardDeviant]

So I was thinking, "How risk averse are AP BJ players?" A simple thought experiment came to mind.

Imagine a game with the following rules. If you survive the game, you get $100. If you don't survive the game, you are executed by firing squad.

The game: flip a fair coin "N" times. If the coin doesn't come up tails all N times, you have survived the game. How big would N have to be before you would agree to play the game?

 

[bj21abc]

The granular scale more or less stops at 10 - a 1000:1 shot or so.
So this means at 10, being executed is equivalent to -ve EV of $100k ... ?
(add risk-averse

May be worthwhile to change the scale a little (more options up to/around 20)

D.

 

[Cardcounter]

The odds of flipping a fair coin a 100 times in a row of either heads or tails for all practical purposes is impossible. The odds are a googleplex to 1. I would risk my life that wouldn't happen for a $100. There is a far greater shot that I will die driving to work than somebody flipping either heads or tails a 100 times in a row!

 

[StandardDeviant]

There is a far greater shot that I will die driving to work than somebody flipping either heads or tails a 100 times in a row!

True. The odds of getting into a fatal car accident in a given year are about 0.0001.That corresponds to about 13 coin flips.

 

[daddybo]

The odds of flipping a fair coin a 100 times in a row of either heads or tails for all practical purposes is impossible. The odds are a googleplex to 1. I would risk my life that wouldn't happen for a $100. There is a far greater shot that I will die driving to work than somebody flipping either heads or tails a 100 times in a row!

Even though probability is in your favor, the downside is not commensurate to the reward. There are way too many ways to make 100 bucks with even less risk. Now if we were talking a life changing amount of cash, that would be a different ballgame.

 

[johndoe]

The odds of flipping a fair coin a 100 times in a row of either heads or tails for all practical purposes is impossible. The odds are a googleplex to 1. I would risk my life that wouldn't happen for a $100. There is a far greater shot that I will die driving to work than somebody flipping either heads or tails a 100 times in a row!

It's closer to 1 in 1x10^30, or .000000000000000000000000000001. I still wouldn't risk it for $100. I might for $1 million or something meaningful.

Of course, you can use Kelly to calculate from your expected life's worth!

 

[StandardDeviant]

A lawyer friend once told me that the "standard" value for a human life is defined as 5*10^5, let's call it 5*10^6 to be on the safe side.

Which would mean that a "rational" player would play the game for 16 tosses. The expected loss at that point would be about $76, giving a positive expectation of $24.

 

[Sonny]

A lawyer friend once told me that the "standard" value for a human life is defined as 5*10^5...giving a positive expectation of $24.

That sounds about right to me for the value of the average lawyer's life. :grin:

-Sonny-

 

[daddybo]

That sounds about right to me for the value of the average lawyer's life. :grin:

-Sonny-

sorry Sonny... Everbody knows lawyers are dime a dozen. That value must be what they THINK they are worth!

 

[StandardDeviant]

Here is an article on how to value life. I don't think it applies to lawyers (or Pit Bosses). How much is a life worth today? The answer: ~$5M, according to this.

 

[itrack]

Honestly if I had to come up with $100 in a horrible way, I think I would go and rob a convenience store or something instead of play this game. Sure the chances are way higher of "getting caught" than the coin flip game, but the consequences don't involve dying.....

OK scrap that idea. After writing it out and thinking about it, that seems real stupid because the chances of dying while robbing someone are probably higher than flipping heads 100 times in a row.

This question makes me feel like a degenerate gambler, because I would probably take the bet. 100 flips minimum sounds safe:grin:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Honestly if I had to come up with $100 in a horrible way, I think I would go and rob a convenience store or something instead of play this game. Sure the chances are way higher of "getting caught" than the coin flip game, but the consequences don't involve dying.....

OK scrap that idea. After writing it out and thinking about it, that seems real stupid because the chances of dying while robbing someone are probably higher than flipping heads 100 times in a row.

This question makes me feel like a degenerate gambler, because I would probably take the bet. 100 flips minimum sounds safe:grin:

Another consideration is the time it takes to do the coin flips, for a mere $100. I can make $100 in a couple of hours in any casino with no consideration of a firing squad. (Well, except for the Cannery.) And it also represents a long day's pay working in a supermarket or waiting tables/tending bar, instead of screwing around with the coin. So why not do that instead? Whenever we enter a casino we see multiple opportunities and we take the best one, right?

Still on principle I would not do it. Human life is not to be used as a forfeit in gambling. Nor should anything that you would consider unethical to do.

 

[Brock Windsor]

The odds of flipping a fair coin a 100 times in a row of either heads or tails for all practical purposes is impossible. The odds are a googleplex to 1. I would risk my life that wouldn't happen for a $100. There is a far greater shot that I will die driving to work than somebody flipping either heads or tails a 100 times in a row!

I'm surprised not one of you 'AP's' has ventured down the path of coin control. A good coin controller can improve his HFR (Heads to flip ratio) so that he has positive expectation over the house even with a fair coin. Perhaps I should spin a few yarns about my coin controlling friend The Admiral.
-BW

 

[StandardDeviant]

Even though probability is in your favor, the downside is not commensurate to the reward. There are way too many ways to make 100 bucks with even less risk. Now if we were talking a life changing amount of cash, that would be a different ballgame.

Yes, you're right. I thought about making the cash award bigger, but I purposely went with a very asymmetrical risk reward scenario.

There are other ways to make $100, but if you get in a car to drive somewhere to pursue those other ways, risk comes back into the picture. The risk of being in a fatal car crash is somewhere in the vicinity of about 15 coin tosses.

Most of the people who have voted said that they would require 100+ coin tosses or wouldn't even play the game, but we take far greater risks just driving to the casino (especially in this part of the country).

 

[StandardDeviant]

Another consideration is the time it takes to do the coin flips, for a mere $100.

Put the coins in a can. Shake the can. Pour the coins out on the floor. For a reasonable number of coins, the procedure is faster than a single hand of BJ.

 

[Kasi]

Imagine a game with the following rules. If you survive the game, you get $100. If you don't survive the game, you are executed by firing squad.
The game: flip a fair coin "N" times. If the coin doesn't come up tails all N times, you have survived the game. How big would N have to be before you would agree to play the game?

How long must I play it for?

I'm a conservative guy but I'll show up anywhere in the country at any friend's house tomorrow with a gun you can shoot me with if you guarantee me an hour's play with a max of 100 consecutive coin-flips equalling heads or tails and also guarantee me you will shoot me if 100 heads or tails occur before an hour's worth of coin-flips. And paying me $100 each time 100 consecutive-whatever flips haven't occured. (As a friend, I hope you'd understand and honor the "suicide-clause" in my life insurace lol.)

Scratch that - I couldn't do that (win risklessly a heckuva lot in an hour) from a friend.

For people that don't like me, I must be guaranteed a min of 160 hrs of play with a max of 100 consecuitive "heads" (or "tails") before you can shoot me. The faster you can flip the coin, the happier I am. I demand as a min, 20 flips a minute, 1200 flips/hr for 160 hrs.

Terms are negotiable lmao.

 

[aslan]

If you bet me you could flip a hundred heads in a row, I wouldn't bet you. Never bet a man at his own game! I live by that one. Who knows, maybe the Matrix has a glitch in it?

Titanic Thompson would bet you he could throw a key into a key hole. He could.

I knew a guy who said he could throw a knife into the ceiling, and when it fell it would split a beer bottle below in two. He could. He would wet the knife, throw it into the drop ceiling above a table, and when the water dripped off the end of the knife he would position an empty beer bottle centered on the spot where the drip hit the table. A little bang on the ceiling and the knife would fall out, reverse itself and come down perfectly on the center of the bottle, splitting it. Pay up!

The same guy would bet you he could roll a bowling ball down a bowling lane, hit the head pin, and cause the bowling ball to return twenty feet without a single pin falling over. He could. He would put a spin on the ball, and roll it ever so slowing down the lane. It would take a while for it to work its way down the lane, and when it touched the head pin, it would reverse and start the journey back. Try it. I did, and it worked after a couple of tries. Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction.

 

[Cardcounter]

The odds of flipping heads a 100 times in a row!

The odds of flipping a fair coin with heads and tails heads a 100 times in a row and coming up heads 100 times in a row are so small if you had 6 billion people flipping coins trying to come up with a streak of a 100 heads in a row once a day for 14 billion years the odds that one or more of them would have been succesful in accomplishing the feet would be over 10 million to 1. Almost ever thing you do on a daily basis has over a billion times better chance of killing you including taking a shower, eating a sandwich, going to a casino, playing baseball, going skiing, and driving all are at least a billion times more likely to kill you than probably of flipping heads a 100 times in a row with a far coin! Hell yeah I would bet my life that you couldn't flip heads a 100 times in a row with a fair coin for a $100!

 

[daddybo]

The odds of flipping a fair coin with heads and tails heads a 100 times in a row and coming up heads 100 times in a row are so small if you had 6 billion people flipping coins trying to come up with a streak of a 100 heads in a row once a day for 14 billion years the odds that one or more of them would have been succesful in accomplishing the feet would be over 10 million to 1. Almost ever thing you do on a daily basis has over a billion times better chance of killing you including taking a shower, eating a sandwich, going to a casino, playing baseball, going skiing, and driving all are at least a billion times more likely to kill you than probably of flipping heads a 100 times in a row with a far coin! Hell yeah I would bet my life that you couldn't flip heads a 100 times in a row with a fair coin for a $100!

But, boy wouldn't you feel stupid if it hit heads 100 times in row. (right before you died) Long odds have a way of miraculously happening when you have the most to lose. The reward needs to justify the risk for the worst possible scenario. This scenario doesn't meet the standard.

 

[aslan]

But, boy wouldn't you feel stupid if it hit heads 100 times in row. (right before you died) Long odds have a way of miraculously happening when you have the most to lose. The reward needs to justify the risk for the worst possible scenario. This scenario doesn't meet the standard.

I could not agree more. EVERY veteran gambler KNOWS that 100 heads WILL come up when the stakes are so high that you MUST win at any cost...and, of course, you will INVARIABLY lose. I know one person in the Forum who is sure to disagree with this statement, but he wouldn't bet that a big dog could lick a little dog unless the fix was in. :laugh: