Slugs & Shuffles

[Baberuth]

Your thoughts:
1.When a shoe shows high & low cards evenly where the count varies little, can a shuffle change this or is it now easy for the dealer to keep it that way?
If so, it should be time to walk.
2.When a shoe shows slugs, does a shuffle really disperse them or is there still a better than normal chance that a favorable shoe could follow?
If so, I would hate to leave, even after a score, since I might get another good run.

I have left after a good score because of a high plus run and wondered if the next shoe might be the same.

Babe

 

[Sonny]

2.When a shoe shows slugs, does a shuffle really disperse them or is there still a better than normal chance that a favorable shoe could follow?

It depends on the shuffle. That's the theory behind shuffle tracking. You keep track of the slugs during the shuffle and see what cards they get mixed with. Then you will be able to estimate the value and location of the slugs. There are some decent threads on shuffle tracking in the Advanced Strategies forum.

-Sonny-

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I think I know what the OP means. If there are no significantly strong slugs during the last shoe, the chances that there will be significant variations in the count become lower in this shoe, even for a counter who is not shuffle tracking.

 

[Renzey]

I think If there are no significantly strong slugs during the last shoe, the chances that there will be significant variations in the count become lower in this shoe, even for a counter who is not shuffle tracking.

Along those lines, what about with ASM's?

 

[Southpaw]

This I was contemplating to make as my next research project after I finish the one I've been working on for a few months.

Since shuffles are far from random, the consistency of a previous shoe may (or may not) in theory be able to predict the EV of the next shoe without any shuffle-tracking.

One would think (and I'd agree) that it would be preferable for the shoe to be as slugged as possible (within practical limits). If a slug of high cards is located near the beginning of a shoe, then you'll see the good cards, and be able to promptly wong-out for a phone call or something of the like. If a slug of high cards is found near the end of the shoe (but not behind the cut-curd), then this is also desirable, since it is something you'd likely have been able to predict through counting. It follows that if your count had predicted the high-cards to be coming then you'd have big bets out during this segment.

To the contrary, if the shoe never deviated to a TC greater in magnitude than +/- 1, a de facto CSM shoe if you will, then there is no way we could win by counting alone, assuming we are not wonging. If you never see significant advantage, you can't place large bets to make up for the small ones we've expected to lose.

So, the question becomes this: How much does the slug-character of the previous shoe influence the next shoe? Remember that as slug-character from the previous shoe can be diluted, but new ones can form or slugs may be combined. (It, however, by law or entropy will move towards randomness on average, but maybe not much if a weak shuffle is used).

The joint I play at, I believe uses a 1 pass R&R with plugs (It actually could be a multi-pass, but I didn't start learning about ST'ing until after my last visit there, which was about a month ago, and thus did not pay much attention to the shuffle). Regardless, though, I just highly doubt that 1 pass R&R does too much to affect the slug-character of the following shoe.

So, the question becomes, for non-ST'ers, could it be possible, if you noticed that the TC fluctuation was minimal during the previous shoe to predict that the EV of the next shoe will be significantly lower than the EV of the average shoe? This information could possibly be useful to perhaps wong out before the shoe even begins if you know it is expected to be uneventful.

SP

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Along those lines, what about with ASM's?

Good question. I could analyze it if I had an ASM.

 

[psyduck]

(It, however, by law or entropy will move towards randomness on average, but maybe not much if a weak shuffle is used).

SP

I am not sure if the law of entropy applies here. Those cards may not be different just because they have different prints on them.

 

[Southpaw]

I am not sure if the law of entropy applies here. Those cards may not be different just because they have different prints on them.

Say you had a shoe that had an incredible half-deck slug that contained 20 high cards, 4 low cards and 2 neutral cards. If you continued to shuffle these cards for an hour, would you expect to find another slug as peculiar as this one or would you expect to find a more uneventful, indiscernible from the norm distribution of cards in the shoe? I think this would be entropy, no?

SP

 

[zengrifter]

Along those lines, what about with ASM's?

Although ST tends to render useless with ASM, due to lack of visual, I have found no marked difference in counting... AND many (if not all) ASMs appear quite okay for keying Aces. Especially the 2D ASMs where we note a stronger Ace/key cohesion consistency than with manual shuffles. zg

 

[Baberuth]

Well done Southpaw.

I will always walk after an uneventful shoe. I am afraid they remain uneventful. While a slug infested shoe may be shuffled to produce a less slug infested shoe, it can’t be as easy to produce evenly spaced high & low cards.
Also, as you said, some slugs might be combined during the shuffle. Another good point you made is that it can depend on the dealer.
Your study will be interesting and should be rewarding.

 

[Southpaw]

Well done Southpaw.

I will always walk after an uneventful shoe. I am afraid they remain uneventful. While a slug infested shoe may be shuffled to produce a less slug infested shoe, it can’t be as easy to produce evenly spaced high & low cards.
Also, as you said, some slugs might be combined during the shuffle. Another good point you made is that it can depend on the dealer.
Your study will be interesting and should be rewarding.

Hold the applause for now, as I'm not sure what the practical value of such a strategy will be, although the type of shuffle will be very important.

Defining what an "uneventful" shoe is and what the relative EV of the next shoe will be very difficult. It has mainly been a thought experiment up until this point.

Devising an easy method to identify well-randomized shoes that should be avoided after the shuffle is going to take some work as well. The only thing I can think of is some point system that is based on the TC frequency of the game. A shoe that has higher TC frequency of TC's of higher magnitude will likely be slugged somewhat. Points would be assigned to seeing TC's of higher magnitude at the beginning of each round or something of the like.

Or you could just analyze it on a qualitative basis. I.e., was it eventful or did the TC hover right around zero the entire time?

Either way, I'm not certain of the practical value. More on this when I finish the project I'm currently working on.

SP

 

[blackriver]

whats the original shuffle like?

i never really observed the first shuffle of a table for fresh cards. how do they generally differ from the normal procedure?

i know ive seen deck washes. i think i may have seen them even wash each deck individually. deck washing probably doesnt leave much to be mapped but maybe a lot to be eyeballed. I know a lot of poker dealers used to just put all the cards in a loose pile and put their hands straight out and slide them back and forth a couple inches a couple times without actually moving many cards around. this would be very easy to eyeball.

if there was no deck wash,
>2 decks riffle/restacked together in 1/2deck or 1deck grabs twice would make for a very polarized deck ripe for double downs and dealer busts if not blackjacks (the aces might get burried in small cards).
>this would also work for 4 decks r/r 2-3 times. both the 2 and 4 deck situ would make the top of the deck rich. since the deck has to be cut you should hope for an od number of deck strips so that cutting would put those rich cards in play. the opposite would be burning money
>for 6 decks a second r/r would marry all the rich and poor slugs together making for a fairly even mix except for a few small negative clumps which would be whiped out on a 3rd r/r. you would actually prefer a r/r and stepladder or stepladder and r/r which would be very slug heavy. a double r/r on 6deck kills all slugs that didnt marry other unlikely slugs of the same texture (rich/poor)

whatever way the first shuffle is done itis more likely to create a slug heavy shoe than actual random cards would

 

[psyduck]

Say you had a shoe that had an incredible half-deck slug that contained 20 high cards, 4 low cards and 2 neutral cards. If you continued to shuffle these cards for an hour, would you expect to find another slug as peculiar as this one or would you expect to find a more uneventful, indiscernible from the norm distribution of cards in the shoe? I think this would be entropy, no?

SP

If you drop a deck of well stacked cards to the floor, the cards will become scattered around and disordered. They will remain that way and will not automatically become well stacked as before they were dropped. That is entropy at work.

 

[zengrifter]

I will always walk after an uneventful shoe.

That will only serve to lower your hourly EV by reducing the #hands played hourly.
If you are going to walk more, then wong-out aggressively at -1 or -2 and find another fresh shoe. zg

 

[blackriver]

If you drop a deck of well stacked cards to the floor, the cards will become scattered around and disordered. They will remain that way and will not automatically become well stacked as before they were dropped. That is entropy at work.

your post implies that because something eis entropy, other things are not


"i thought mice were mammals"

"reindeer have huge antlers and lots of fun and can fly around toeing sleds. that is a mammal"

 

[Baberuth]

ZG,

I appreciate the advice and do leave negative shoes.
If the dealer is shuffling well mixed cards with well mixed cards, the same is coming. At least it probably is on the next shoe.
The type of shuffle or dealer would have more of a factor in a slug infested shoe where slugs will have more of a chance to recur the next shoe.
Should I be wrong and proved so is why I have put it on the table. Southpaw says he is doing a study on this subject and there will be several factors to consider.
The most important may be what you reffered to. After all is said and done, does the EV make it worthwhile to put it in play?
Thanks
Babe