So I know my first card will be a 10

D

duanedibley

Well-Known Member
How much to bet?

I'm playing 8D S17 LS, and Hi Lo TC is +1.5 at the end of the shoe.

Dealer accidentally pulled a 10 he didn't need and I'm in the 1 seat, so I know my first card of the next round is a 10.

I remember reading a thread here about betting 40% of your bankroll if you know you're getting an Ace, which is totally ludicrous. Is the play on a 10 similar?

I ended up betting 8% of my (pathetic) bankroll, which seemed too conservative, but at the same time was really scary since it was way above my max bet.

Does anyone have a table of EV as a function of your first card? If so it should be relatively easy to figure out the optimal bet here after making the necessary adjustment for the +TC.
 
Pro21

Pro21

Well-Known Member
duanedibley said:
Does anyone have a table of EV as a function of your first card? If so it should be relatively easy to figure out the optimal bet here after making the necessary adjustment for the +TC.
Click to expand...
Yes, these charts are in appendix D of Exhibit CAA. 14.03% for 8 deck h17 and 14.34% for s17
 
cpage727

cpage727

Well-Known Member
duanedibley said:
How much to bet?

I'm playing 8D S17 LS, and Hi Lo TC is +1.5 at the end of the shoe.

Dealer accidentally pulled a 10 he didn't need and I'm in the 1 seat, so I know my first card of the next round is a 10.

I remember reading a thread here about betting 40% of your bankroll if you know you're getting an Ace, which is totally ludicrous. Is the play on a 10 similar?

I ended up betting 8% of my (pathetic) bankroll, which seemed too conservative, but at the same time was really scary since it was way above my max bet.

Does anyone have a table of EV as a function of your first card? If so it should be relatively easy to figure out the optimal bet here after making the necessary adjustment for the +TC.
Click to expand...
did ya win the hand?
 
T

Thunder

Well-Known Member
duanedibley said:
How much to bet?

I'm playing 8D S17 LS, and Hi Lo TC is +1.5 at the end of the shoe.

Dealer accidentally pulled a 10 he didn't need and I'm in the 1 seat, so I know my first card of the next round is a 10.

I remember reading a thread here about betting 40% of your bankroll if you know you're getting an Ace, which is totally ludicrous. Is the play on a 10 similar?

I ended up betting 8% of my (pathetic) bankroll, which seemed too conservative, but at the same time was really scary since it was way above my max bet.

Does anyone have a table of EV as a function of your first card? If so it should be relatively easy to figure out the optimal bet here after making the necessary adjustment for the +TC.
Click to expand...
And what happens if you bet 40% of your bankroll and then you have a DD situation? Do you then bet another 40%!!! That would be one insane hand.
 
D

DownUnderWonder

Active Member
Thunder said:
And what happens if you bet 40% of your bankroll and then you have a DD situation? Do you then bet another 40%!!! That would be one insane hand.
Click to expand...
Are there rules which actually make it a good idea to DD on a hand containing a 10?
 
D

DownUnderWonder

Active Member
Thunder said:
Not to my knowledge but I was referring to having an Ace, not a 10.
Click to expand...
Indeed, sorry about that.

This brings up a very interesting situation. Suppose you are betting full kelly knowing there is an ace and BS tells you to double the hand you get. Should you? probably not. The EV you would gain by doubling would probably not be justified by the cost. You would probably be betting above kelly by doubling and therefore should play the hand otherwise, even though you are theoretically leaving EV on the table.

Lets say you are betting 40% of your bankroll knowing there is an ace coming and you are dealt A2 vs 6. According to the wizard here http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html the EV for the actions on this hand are as follows..

Stand: -0.1537
Hit: 0.1617
Double: 0.1797

So, to double here would gain 0.018 in EV, and doubling is technically the correct play. To double would require 2/3 of your remaining bankroll. So, in this situation, to maximize EV you would need to bet 2/3 of your bankroll on a bet that gives you a 1.8% advantage. This is obviously insane and would be far overbetting. So, in a situation when you are kelly betting an exposed card like this, it doesn't follow that you should follow basic strategy (or your indices) because they may be very bad moves. Also its worth noting that if you are allowed to double for less you may be tempted to work out how much to double for, which would be a small amount. This would also be a bad move because the amount you are giving up by not being able to take additional cards if required would be greater than what you would gain from the small extra you added to your bet.

I am fairly new to blackjack math so this may all be nonsense :) but this is how the situation seems to me.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top