Some things I've discovered over the years

[moo321]

I'm going to discuss a few things I've discovered over the years over a series of posts. The first thing is that most people who think they are counting cannot count. I've run into many wannabe counters, some forum members.

If you haven't practiced for dozens of hours, counting down decks, you probably can't count. If you even occassionally make errors, you're killing yourself. You need to have your count down pat, or else you'll never make a profit.

A lot of people fool themselves on this point. Some people can even count down a shoe or two without mistakes. But can you count a shoe down for 8 hours in a row? While talking to people? After you've had a drink? If not, you won't make serious money at this.

My advice to anyone who wants to make money at this is to practice counting ad nauseum, and then practice more. I had honestly played hundreds of thousands of hands of BS on the computer, and practiced counting for dozens of hours before my first trip. And I still wasn't ready for 6 months after that first trip.

Practice, with actual decks, counting actual cards. The software won't cut it in my opinion. Practice for long periods of time.

 

[Southpaw]

Agreed. While I haven't been in this business long enough to start evaluating others, I can say that I spent 8 months practicing every day before I ever sat down at the tables. Although my course load has restricted my practice hours to about 7 hours per week, in those initial eight months, there were many days that I practiced 4-6 hours in a day.

SP

 

[blackjackomaha]

I know some who tend to pick up counting faster than others. It took me well over a year of practicing at home, work (at old job during slow overnight shifts), and in/out of casinos to feel "battle ready". This included time to build up a decent bankroll.

I agree with most of what you've said. Being able to count while having a drink, chatting up players/dealers, etc is critical. If you find yourself losing the count time after time, keep practicing before you invest more money. I purchased all the necessary items to play close to casino-style blackjack at home. Drinking/playing blackjack with friends was good practice for consuming a small amount of alcohol, chatting, and watching tv while keeping the count.

 

[sagefr0g]

agreed moo. that's pretty much how come i gave up on counting per Se.
just overall it's too much one has to lay out in every way for the payback, far as i'm concerned.
so is that all she wrote then?, well, i don't think so. my contention is with experience and knowledge with respect to card counting, one can spot an advantage (at a lesser degree) just as if one was counting. but i'll give you this much as such like you say, i can't make much money at it.
thing is though even if i could be like Watson in the jeopardy game, with the level of risk, the bank i'm willing to lay out, well i still wouldn't make much money considering my typical games & conditions available, sorta thing.
point is though, just let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater, lol, there can still be value there. couple that value with other techniques, opportunities, and life ain't so bad, even for us not so skilled guys.
edit: far as playing software blackjack, i can really satisfactorily beat the pants off the game for thousands and thousands of rounds with out ever having counted a lick. thing is the software can be played so quickly that you can just see the advantage or not, but go to the casino, with the slow a$$ dealing, constant bull crap going on, payouts, coloring up, dealers yakking, side bets being payed, well it's just so slow that it's no where as easy to get a handle on the advantage or disadvantage as the case maybe.

 

[zengrifter]

If you even occassionally make errors, you're killing yourself.

Infrequent RANDOM errors have no ill effect on longterm results. zg

 

[Sharky]

how on earth does one "lose" the count? do they forget it from the end of one hand to the beginning of the next?

agreed that the best practice is at the casino playing as small as stakes you can find as it is all relative...win, say, 50 white/red units and they would be an equal number of green/black/purple when you prove to yourself you win and 'graduate' to a higher level

forgetting the "count" reminded me of one of the finest acting jobs and endings to a movie ever:

"...problem is, both sides want to win, they want to win...winning is everything...that man wants to win so badly, he's so carried away with the prospect of winning, the idea of winning, it means so much to him, that he forgot something essential...he forgot his case (count)..."

just watch the clip and substitute "prosecution" w/ "AP wannabe" and "case" w/ "count"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sOeY6ZVG2U

 

[NightStalker]

yes

how on earth does one "lose" the count? do they forget it from the end of one hand to the beginning of the next?

Yes, there are times when i'll forget the count after the end of prev round to the beginning of new round esp when am figuring mispay errors or trying to observe the sequence of cards going on or trying to recollect sequence from last shoe. Nothing to be shamed of

I bet if you can find me a counter whose results are in exact accordance with EV (computer play). Humans are meant for errors..

 

[zengrifter]

Back in the day when we would practice RC with an RC chart, Revere repeatedly emphasized
that a major problem to be alert for was the occasional reversing of a +/- card value. zg

 

[gamblingghost]

Back in the day when we would practice RC with an RC chart, Revere repeatedly emphasized
that a major problem to be alert for was the occasional reversing of a +/- card value. zg

Ah! I'm not the only one. Thank you for saying this.

 

[iCountNTrack]

I'm going to discuss a few things I've discovered over the years over a series of posts. The first thing is that most people who think they are counting cannot count. I've run into many wannabe counters, some forum members.

If you haven't practiced for dozens of hours, counting down decks, you probably can't count. If you even occassionally make errors, you're killing yourself. You need to have your count down pat, or else you'll never make a profit.

A lot of people fool themselves on this point. Some people can even count down a shoe or two without mistakes. But can you count a shoe down for 8 hours in a row? While talking to people? After you've had a drink? If not, you won't make serious money at this.

My advice to anyone who wants to make money at this is to practice counting ad nauseum, and then practice more. I had honestly played hundreds of thousands of hands of BS on the computer, and practiced counting for dozens of hours before my first trip. And I still wasn't ready for 6 months after that first trip.

Practice, with actual decks, counting actual cards. The software won't cut it in my opinion. Practice for long periods of time.

I agree with all you say, but there are two other major factors that need to be addressed. Besides being undertrained, being underfunded and playing mediocre uncountable games are two things most wannabe counters have.

 

[Solo player]

I agree with all you say, but there are two other major factors that need to be addressed. Besides being undertrained, being underfunded and playing mediocre uncountable games are two things most wannabe counters have.

Good points.

To play the best games on the strip usually means at least 25$. Very easy for newbies to over bet there bank. Especially if you play shoes. Variance likes to kick ya when your down. Gotta have a good bank.

 

[Jack_Black]

Agreed. But a few things that I have noticed over the years:

even counting perfectly will give you a hefty load of variance. The counting edge is so small in multideck games. do you have the mindset, the bankroll and the emotion control to weather it? I've almost given up on counting except on SD games. The counting edge is pretty huge on that game. I've also been working on "other" things.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Back in the day when we would practice RC with an RC chart, Revere repeatedly emphasized
that a major problem to be alert for was the occasional reversing of a +/- card value. zg

I don't even believe that's a problem. The variance is horrible and I think a lot of people are looking for reasons for it other than randomness, and I suppose it's honorable that they look to flaws in themselves before blaming anyone or anything else, but if you are counting even poorly and lose a lot of money, it's not because you were counting poorly. When you see a ploppy win a lot of money, was it because he was playing like an idiot?

We see evidence of this in pagan religious practices. Pagans have numerous things that affect them tragically but they cannot control or explain. So they hypothesize gods of weather, gods of war, gods of death and illness, gods of crop fertility, gods of human fertility. As man evolved to understand these things he smashed the old idols which both threatened him and failed to protect him, and his deity took on the form of a Grand Architect who does not trifle in every mundane affair. We have to take care to know the things we do both qualitatively (I should not make errors) and quantitatively (What difference does in make, in dollars, if I didn't see that card or use that index play?) to avoid turning an observation and a sound principle into voodoo.

I'd sum what you need for success up in the category "realistic expectations." That includes being properly capitalized, staying within the limits of your abilities, enduring losses, and wise game selection.

 

[FLASH1296]

KUDOS to A.M. for a finely penned post.

 

[21gunsalute]

KUDOS to A.M. for a finely penned post.

Yes. The gods were with him while he was writing it.

 

[Billy C1]

Agreed. But a few things that I have noticed over the years:

even counting perfectly will give you a hefty load of variance. The counting edge is so small in multideck games. do you have the mindset, the bankroll and the emotion control to weather it? I've almost given up on counting except on SD games. The counting edge is pretty huge on that game. I've also been working on "other" things.

If you are correctly converting RC to TC------the edge isn't much different (if all rules are the same).

BillyC1

 

[Sharky]

yes, but the volatility (of the count) is, and after playing so much SD & DD lately, it is downright painful to play shoes...F16 fighter pilot vs. commercial jet

 

[Jack_Black]

If you are correctly converting RC to TC------the edge isn't much different (if all rules are the same).

BillyC1

would you rather play a SD game that was TC+10 with 20 cards left, or an 8D game that was TC+10 with 104 cards left?

how often do you see TC+10 in an 8 decker?

 

[Blue Efficacy]

would you rather play a SD game that was TC+10 with 20 cards left, or an 8D game that was TC+10 with 104 cards left?

how often do you see TC+10 in an 8 decker?

That one is a no brainer. You'll get one round in, at most, on the single deck game. If they haven't shuffled already.

Give me the 8 decker every time.