Splitting 10's vs 5/6

[tedloc]

Before everyone thinks I'm an idiot, hear me out. I have been playing for 40 years and I ALWAYS play BS. I started with Thorpe and have stayed current. Recently a young player asked me, why he should'nt split 10's vs dealer 5/6. I told him what I had been told, that his sure 20 was going to win more hands than his unsure 10/10. He then pointed out that if he had 10 vs. 5-6, he would always double. If so, why not split the hands. You now have two hands with 10 and the dealer has an up 5/6 up.
I've been thinking about this scenario and I am now not so sure, that I wouldn't do this, especially if I was the only one at the table. I wouldn't want to be called stupid by the whole table.
Even, if I can win more hands by not splitting, maybe you can win more $$$ by splitting? What are your thoughts?

 

[Mikeaber]

Hi Tedloc.....Let's take just one scenario:

You have your pair of Tens and the dealer is showing his 5 or 6. Let's say that the count is negative but since you are not counting, you don't know that. You don't have any idea what the condition of the deck is!

So, you are trying to modify Basic Strategy as a global change no matter what the count is. Your only stipulation was that you are maybe the only person at the table.

Okay, you split 'em. You draw a 5 and a 3....two stiffs. But the dealer still has a bust showing. He has a ten in the hole and hits another low card. You've turned your winning twenty into two loosing hands.

That's not an uncommon situation. I've seen folks spilt tens to four hands and end up in that scenario. I've seen them win also, but the thing I see most often when someone splits them is that they will win one hand and lose the other one thus pushing the hand in total where they would have won had they stuck.

I believe there is an index for counters to split the tens...+4 or +5 I believe. But for a non-advantage player, it is never a good move.

 

[msshay]

I've been told that with 2 10's I have almost a 93% chance of winning the hand. Why would I throw that out? What are my chances if I spit the 10's of winning? (I bet less.)

 

[msshay]

Plus, I thought main idea behind splitting is to change a bad or so-so hand into a good hand. eg that is way you always split 8's to go from a bad 16 to hopefully 2 good hands of 18.

 

[Mikeaber]

Hmmm...no, not in reality Msshay. Sometimes, you are splitting to get more money on the table in a good hand. Example is splitting 9's against just about anything except a 7 or a 10 or an Ace.....even against a 9.

 

[I just like semi-circles]

Not to mention, unless you've been playing foolishly all night, splitting 10's is like putting a sign over your head that says "I'm counting cards". I don't care how good the count is, that's one play I wouldn't make, unless I want to be backed off.

 

[tedloc]

I've been told

I've been told that with 2 10's I have almost a 93% chance of winning the hand. Why would I throw that out? What are my chances if I spit the 10's of winning? (I bet less.)

It's my understanding that if you get 20 you will only collect the $ on 38% of the hands. The other hands you will push or lose. I know this sounds crazy but over the years I have checked this, at the table. Usually it is pretty accurate. Next time you play, count all the hands where the player gets 20 and see how many times the pull in the $$$.

 

[Mikeaber]

It's my understanding that if you get 20 you will only collect the $ on 38% of the hands. The other hands you will push or lose. I know this sounds crazy but over the years I have checked this, at the table. Usually it is pretty accurate. Next time you play, count all the hands where the player gets 20 and see how many times the pull in the $$$.

According to "The Wizard", with you holding 20 and the dealer showing a Ten, you are expected to win .5545 of the hands....a bit over half. The other 45%, you will either push or lose.

You can check it out at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/bjapx5.html You have a better chance against an Ace than a Ten and anything else is even higher expected player win.

Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling states that the cost of error in splitting 10's against a dealer 6 is $95 per $100,000 gambled. Mensa has a footnote that the table was taken from Don Schlesinger's "Blackjack Attack."

But, I'll not dispute that with you for I don't know it for myself. What I do know is that there are two side bets at one of the double-deck tables at the Plaza. One is for "dealer twenty" and the other is for "Player twenty." It is VERY seldom no matter what the count that I recall both player and dealer getting twenty. I was paying attention because I wanted that side bet since it paid 5:1. But, I also recall playing a lot of cash tables where it seems that every time I get a twenty, the dealer comes along with one also.

I think I'll continue playing according the best long-run chance which I think must go according to the table of expectations no matter how it seems the hands actually fall :cry:

 

[d-down21]

splitting Tens

According to Lawrence Revere if there are no 5's left in a single deck game......splitting 10s against a 6 is the correct move.

 

[I just like semi-circles]

According to Lawrence Revere if there are no 5's left in a single deck game......splitting 10s against a 6 is the correct move.

I personally still would have a problem with that. Even though it may be the "correct" move, for someone to actually know there were no 5's left in the deck, means they are counting. Which also means they are probably playing as close to perfect BS as you get. (Which in turn means the pit knows you are not a dummy). By splitting 10's then, the red flag goes up that you are counting and will probably get the scrutiny of the casino. I've read books where professionals simply will not make that play under any circumstances because it's not worth the heat it generates. They feel longevity is worth more than the few extra dollars they "might" get by splitting a pair of 10's.
I will say I have seen people split 10's before. The one's I have seen do it were obviously not counting, because their overall play was horrible. I think those are the only kind of players who could get away with it. (But when your overall play is crap, it wouldn't matter anyway, so there is no advantage there).

 

[d-down21]

I"ve made the move one time when I was playing in vegas with out absoluelutley any repricussions...........But then again I'm really not a counter only your basic run of the mill b/s player.

In about 20 years of playing I've never seen ANYBODY thrown out of a casino other than an obnoxious drunk