TC is +10 but there are only 3 aces left. How much do you bet?

[BJgenius007]

This is a great game, S17, 8 decks, penetration is about 84%. Yesterday I had a strange shoe. In the middle of the shoe, almost all aces came out in a burst. So, there were 3.5 decks remaining. The true count is +20 for level 2 one deck true count, or +10 for level 2 half deck true count, or about +10 for Hi Lo. True count was extremely high but 29 aces have already come out. At that point, the remaining deck was 11 aces shy. Theoretically, I should adjust the true count by subtracting 11/1.75 = 6. That made Adjusted TC +4. Normally I would have my max bet out at +5. But since there were only three aces left in the shoe, I did not put out 80% of my max bet. Instead, I only bet one third of my max bet.

Glad I did. Because the dealers made the best of the remaining three aces. He got two Blackjacks. And in the last hand of the shoe, I doubled my 9 vs his 6 and got an 4. His downcard turned out to be the last ace! I whisper to my friend, "What a freaking shoe! Not only 31 aces came out early. He saved himself one for the last act!"

For those AP keep ace side count, what would you bet in this situation, TC = +10 but almost no aces left?

 

[blackjack avenger]

bet what your count says

An A has about the same value for betting as a 10. So if you count the A in your main count, it makes no difference how many As are left. For the halves or hi lo count there is no difference. Now hi op 2 does keep an A side count for betting because the A is not consideted in the main count.

For betting, little difference between 10 & A when counting

 

[tthree]

This is a great game, S17, 8 decks, penetration is about 84%. Yesterday I had a strange shoe. In the middle of the shoe, almost all aces came out in a burst. So, there were 3.5 decks remaining. The true count is +20 for level 2 one deck true count, or +10 for level 2 half deck true count, or about +10 for Hi Lo. True count was extremely high but 29 aces have already come out. At that point, the remaining deck was 11 aces shy. Theoretically, I should adjust the true count by subtracting 11/1.75 = 6. That made Adjusted TC +4. Normally I would have my max bet out at +5. But since there were only three aces left in the shoe, I did not put out 80% of my max bet. Instead, I only bet one third of my max bet.

Glad I did. Because the dealers made the best of the remaining three aces. He got two Blackjacks. And in the last hand of the shoe, I doubled my 9 vs his 6 and got an 4. His downcard turned out to be the last ace! I whisper to my friend, "What a freaking shoe! Not only 31 aces came out early. He saved himself one for the last act!"

For those AP keep ace side count, what would you bet in this situation, TC = +10 but almost no aces left?

TC +20 with 3.5 decks left the RC would be an unbelievable +70 adjust for the 11 deficit aces the RC becomes +48 divide by 3.5 to get a betting TC of +13.7 with little chance of a BJ. The double and split opportunities are still very strong though. I Would bet 70% of max to 100% max depending on the individual circumstance. If the middle cards were fairly balanced with the low cards I would bet high in the range, the bigger the imbalance the lower I would go in the range. Your bet was square in the that range so without the added info that is about what I would bet.

 

[moo321]

Bet whatever you can get away with!

 

[BJgenius007]

TC +20 with 3.5 decks left the RC would be an unbelievable +70 adjust for the 11 deficit aces the RC becomes +48 divide by 3.5 to get a betting TC of +13.7 with little chance of a BJ. The double and split opportunities are still very strong though. I Would bet 70% of max to 100% max depending on the individual circumstance. If the middle cards were fairly balanced with the low cards I would bet high in the range, the bigger the imbalance the lower I would go in the range. Your bet was square in the that range so without the added info that is about what I would bet.

It is the first time I saw the extremely rich tens and the extreme poor aces in almost half a shoe. That makes it an interesting case. And it happened in the last shoe of an interesting session. The true count got to +6 in the first shoe. Then for the next 2 or 3 hours, True Counts stayed negative with occasional spikes to +2, until the last shoe. I made some money on the first shoe then watched my chips slowly slip away. Then lost most of hands in the last odd shoe. No max bets but when you lost 70% of the hands, the loss accumulated fast.