#### Goodrodrich

##### Active Member

Hello everyone, I open this thread to share some dissuasive technique towards variance:

In my case when I'm at a TC +1 and I go to a TC +5 for Zen Count:

1. I analyze why the sudden rise is due.

2. I analyze the last 7 rounds played (won vs lost.)

3. I analyze the randomness of how the cards have turned out.

4. I analyze if the last hand I won or lost.

After analyzing those variables, I decide to make the maximum bet of 24 for the TC +5 or to bet at 50%.

And how do you do it

#### BJgenius007

##### Well-Known Member
Goodrodrich said:

Hello everyone, I open this thread to share some dissuasive technique towards variance:

In my case when I'm at a TC +1 and I go to a TC +5 for Zen Count:

1. I analyze why the sudden rise is due.

2. I analyze the last 7 rounds played (won vs lost.)

3. I analyze the randomness of how the cards have turned out.

4. I analyze if the last hand I won or lost.

After analyzing those variables, I decide to make the maximum bet of 24 for the TC +5 or to bet at 50%.

And how do you do it
Only 1 is relevant. TC rises from +1 to +5 because many small cards were just played. You can assume the rest of deck contains more face cards than average thus you place big bets.

About 2, 3 and 4, they are really irrelevant for such small samples, last seven rounds. You really cannot see the randomness just by looking at the seven rounds. Also regarding 4, your last round win or loss, should not affect your bet size.

That being said, you can get the sense of the randomness after one or two hours playing. What you are looking for is if the casino is cheating by replacing some ranks of cards with other ranks of cards. The most common practices are replacing rank of six with rank of five (and/or four). If decks contains more fives and less sixes, dealer won't bust often. All night you will get much more often pairs of five, if you double and often get the third five, you need to be alerted. There is one BJ author named bjanalyst who invented a side card count called 5m6c (5 minus 6 count) which is very helpful in deciding if the casino cheats using this practice. Basically set the 5m6c side count initial value is zero. If you see a six card, you subtract 1. If you see a five card, you add 1 to the side count. If the side count are always positive in almost every shoe after playing one hour or two hours, you can conclude the six decks contains more five cards than six cards. People use only HiLo or Zen cannot detect it, but people using 5m6c side count can. Casino cheat using this because TC fluctuates as usual, but dealer makes his hands in most of hands. At nights that dealer seems never bust, player needs to consider this possibility. And 5m6 side count is the tool to use. Another similar cheat is to replace eight and nine cards with face cards. This will affect TC. It will make TC stay negative all night thus AP never got the chance to place big bets. The tool for detecting this is to use 8/9 side count. If the number (6D should have 48 such mid-cards, if playing 5/6D, you should reach 40 in the end of the shoe.) constantly end below 40 and TC always stays negative, consider the possibly of this cheat. This also affect your index play on 12 v 2 and 12 v 3. You will often get a face card even TC is negative. After one or two hours, you will get the sense that something is not right. Why you bust often on such plays. But again, you cannot get the sense of these after only playing seven hands, I think one or two hours is required.

#### Goodrodrich

##### Active Member
BJgenius007 said:
Only 1 is relevant. TC rises from +1 to +5 because many small cards were just played. You can assume the rest of deck contains more face cards than average thus you place big bets.

About 2, 3 and 4, they are really irrelevant for such small samples, last seven rounds. You really cannot see the randomness just by looking at the seven rounds. Also regarding 4, your last round win or loss, should not affect your bet size.

That being said, you can get the sense of the randomness after one or two hours playing. What you are looking for is if the casino is cheating by replacing some ranks of cards with other ranks of cards. The most common practices are replacing rank of six with rank of five (and/or four). If decks contains more fives and less sixes, dealer won't bust often. All night you will get much more often pairs of five, if you double and often get the third five, you need to be alerted. There is one BJ author named bjanalyst who invented a side card count called 5m6c (5 minus 6 count) which is very helpful in deciding if the casino cheats using this practice. Basically set the 5m6c side count initial value is zero. If you see a six card, you subtract 1. If you see a five card, you add 1 to the side count. If the side count are always positive in almost every shoe after playing one hour or two hours, you can conclude the six decks contains more five cards than six cards. People use only HiLo or Zen cannot detect it, but people using 5m6c side count can. Casino cheat using this because TC fluctuates as usual, but dealer makes his hands in most of hands. At nights that dealer seems never bust, player needs to consider this possibility. And 5m6 side count is the tool to use. Another similar cheat is to replace eight and nine cards with face cards. This will affect TC. It will make TC stay negative all night thus AP never got the chance to place big bets. The tool for detecting this is to use 8/9 side count. If the number (6D should have 48 such mid-cards, if playing 5/6D, you should reach 40 in the end of the shoe.) constantly end below 40 and TC always stays negative, consider the possibly of this cheat. This also affect your index play on 12 v 2 and 12 v 3. You will often get a face card even TC is negative. After one or two hours, you will get the sense that something is not right. Why you bust often on such plays. But again, you cannot get the sense of these after only playing seven hands, I think one or two hours is required.
I think you are the type of player who plays as the simulator says and ends up eating a consecutive loss at TC +5 (negative streak) of 10 big bets, when that can be avoided

#### DSchles

##### Well-Known Member
BJgenius007 said:
Only 1 is relevant. TC rises from +1 to +5 because many small cards were just played. You can assume the rest of deck contains more face cards than average thus you place big bets.

About 2, 3 and 4, they are really irrelevant for such small samples, last seven rounds. You really cannot see the randomness just by looking at the seven rounds. Also regarding 4, your last round win or loss, should not affect your bet size.

That being said, you can get the sense of the randomness after one or two hours playing. What you are looking for is if the casino is cheating by replacing some ranks of cards with other ranks of cards. The most common practices are replacing rank of six with rank of five (and/or four). If decks contains more fives and less sixes, dealer won't bust often. All night you will get much more often pairs of five, if you double and often get the third five, you need to be alerted. There is one BJ author named bjanalyst who invented a side card count called 5m6c (5 minus 6 count) which is very helpful in deciding if the casino cheats using this practice. Basically set the 5m6c side count initial value is zero. If you see a six card, you subtract 1. If you see a five card, you add 1 to the side count. If the side count are always positive in almost every shoe after playing one hour or two hours, you can conclude the six decks contains more five cards than six cards. People use only HiLo or Zen cannot detect it, but people using 5m6c side count can. Casino cheat using this because TC fluctuates as usual, but dealer makes his hands in most of hands. At nights that dealer seems never bust, player needs to consider this possibility. And 5m6 side count is the tool to use. Another similar cheat is to replace eight and nine cards with face cards. This will affect TC. It will make TC stay negative all night thus AP never got the chance to place big bets. The tool for detecting this is to use 8/9 side count. If the number (6D should have 48 such mid-cards, if playing 5/6D, you should reach 40 in the end of the shoe.) constantly end below 40 and TC always stays negative, consider the possibly of this cheat. This also affect your index play on 12 v 2 and 12 v 3. You will often get a face card even TC is negative. After one or two hours, you will get the sense that something is not right. Why you bust often on such plays. But again, you cannot get the sense of these after only playing seven hands, I think one or two hours is required.

Don

#### BJgenius007

##### Well-Known Member
Goodrodrich said:
I think you are the type of player who plays as the simulator says and ends up eating a consecutive loss at TC +5 (negative streak) of 10 big bets, when that can be avoided
If
DSchles said:

Don
You are smarter than many people. But you are not smarter than me. You will soon know.

#### BJgenius007

##### Well-Known Member
Goodrodrich said:
I think you are the type of player who plays as the simulator says and ends up eating a consecutive loss at TC +5 (negative streak) of 10 big bets, when that can be avoided
There are people like Don who thinks casinos will never cheat. On the other end of the spectrum, you want to put a safeguard that affects your play after mere seven losses. I am in the middle. I would let casino cheat me for one hour because casino cheating is still very rare. Then I would put a safeguard (change my bet pattern or index play) or I just leave.

Last edited:

#### Goodrodrich

##### Active Member
BJgenius007 said:
There are people like Ron who thinks casinos will never cheat. On the other end of the spectrum, you want to put a safeguard that affects your play after mere seven losses. I am in the middle. I would let casino cheat me for one hour because casino cheating is still very rare. Then I would put a safeguard (change my bet pattern or index play) or I just leave.

I have not written anything about cheating ... I have written about a way to analyze before placing a big bet of 24 units with a spread of (1, 3, 6, 15, 24)

#### BJgenius007

##### Well-Known Member
Goodrodrich said:
I have not written anything about cheating ... I have written about a way to analyze before placing a big bet of 24 units with a spread of (1, 3, 6, 15, 24)
My point is that you should not worry about short term variance. You should not use the outcome of your last seven hands to lower your bet or change index play. All you need to worry is if the casino is cheating which could be only detected after a long session and the player keeps that in mind from the start otherwise the player won't see it.

#### Goodrodrich

##### Active Member
BJgenius007 said:
My point is that you should not worry about short term variance. You should not use the outcome of your last seven hands to lower your bet or change index play. All you need to worry is if the casino is cheating which could be only detected after a long session and the player keeps that in mind from the start otherwise the player won't see it.

The short-term negative variance is important because the bad luck time can be 10,000 or 20,000 rounds and can fall by 1s, 2s or 3s (S = Standard Deviation)

10K or 20K rounds is equivalent to 1 to 3 months of play approximately playing 8 hours x 5 days x 4.3333 weeks in a 6D game with 75% depth with 5 players including the dealer as a player, the average number of cards received is 2.6 cards for each player per round that is 18 rounds for each player per shoe and each shoe lasts 20 minutes, that is 54 rounds per hour for each player)

My message talks about the theoretical advantage vs the real advantage ... the theoretical advantage is when you are in a TC + 5 and you start to lose rounds after round 4, 7 or 8 consecutive times that can be avoided with a situational reading of the shoe but If you play as the simulator says in the long term you will win but you will have to invest a lot of time to get to play the necessary rounds and you will need a lot of money to support the negative variance that you like to absorb so much.

In my case I use a bankroll of 120 Big Bet for a risk of 5% doing Wong Out and when I lose between 10 to 20 Big Bet I re-optimize my bet spread and when I win 10 Big Bet I re-optimize my spread bet.

#### DSchles

##### Well-Known Member
You're aberrational. You have no idea what you're talking about. But you're far from the first to write about streaks. Spare us.

Don

#### ZenPrince

##### Member
Zee times two (not you Don)! What a fucking circus show.