Under what condition that the player will have more chance to double down?

[ssho88]

For BJ with D9(double down on 9, 10 or 11 only) rule. Is it possible to develope a method or counting system to predict under what condition(or what deck composition) that the player will more often to obtain first two cards total equal to 9, 10, or 11? For example deck rich in Ace, 2, 3, 7, 8 and T, could we say that the player will have higher chance to get first two total equal to 9, 10 or 11 for double down?

if we know that we have higher chance to get first two cards total = 9, 10 or 11 in the next round, should we bet big and then double down if we get first two cards total equal to 9, 10 or 11? Bear in mind that dealer will also have higher chance to get total 19, 20 or 21 under such circumstances !

cheers

ssho88

 

[PokerJunky]

I think what you should be asking is under what conditions will there be a high amount of Aces and Tens so that when you do double down you will end up with a high probability of winning or pushing with the dealer (depending on what the dealer has i.e. 19, 20). Predicting whether you will receive a 9, 10, 11 on your first two cards does mean much if the remaining cards in the deck are short of Aces and Tens...

 

[ssho88]

If we know that we will received 9,10 or 11 and TC is positive....

If we know that we will received 9,10 or 11 and TC is positive....my question is should we bet much bigger(full kelly) than normal large bet(half kelly) in order to get bigger edge ?

For example, say the TC = +3, then the player edge = TC/2 = +1.5%, so usually we should bet 1.5/2 = 0.75%(half Kelly) of the bankroll. However, since now we know that we have higher chance to get 9, 10 or 11 and TC = +3, should we bet 1.5%(full Kelly) instead of 0.75% of the bankroll ?

cheers

ssho88

 

[KenSmith]

Unfortunately, these two things work against each other. When will you get lots of double-down hands? When the count is negative. When will you do the worst on those doubles? When the count is negative.

If that weren't true, card counting would be a lot more valuable. Unfortunately, when the deck is most favorable, you get fewer chances to get more money on the table.