Value of wait for 10s

daddybo

daddybo

Well-Known Member
daniel27 said:
Reading the thread "always loss in BIG counts"
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=14956
i can not stop wondering if somebody here actually WAIT until the count begins to decline.
Maybe if there still some rounds left wait for the 10s will be worth the wait.
Click to expand...
Apparently there are people that do it...(or so I've recently gathered from various post). But you will miss alot of good EV if you wait for it to happen.
 
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bjcount

Well-Known Member
daniel27 said:
Reading the thread "always loss in BIG counts"
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=14956
i can not stop wondering if somebody here actually WAIT until the count begins to decline.
Maybe if there still some rounds left wait for the 10s will be worth the wait.
Click to expand...
There are many scenarios we can develop in trying to justify to ourselves that not betting the proper ramp with the count is a better choice. Fortunately if you go by the math formulated by some ingenious individuals, your following a mathematically proven theory which has worked when used correctly for many many years. The key words here are "used correctly".

The count doesn't need to drop to see the tens come out, they just may not come to you.

The count can also begin to drop and still the tens don't come to you.

The count can fall like a rock with paint across the felt... but still you pull a stiff.. happens all the time.. even heads up.

When do you put out the money?

Now I'm not saying to jump your bet from 2u to 12u because the count jumped, but if you just lost a 12u bet and the count warrants another 12u bet why would you back down?... unless you have additional information (which we are not looking at in this thread).

BJC

Or as AM said above.... the count declined... the tens are out.. now what do you do?
 
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stophon

Well-Known Member
If the true count started to decline it is no more likely to keep declining than it is at any other point in the deck.
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
The main distinction here is prospective vs. retrospective analysis. When looking back on your shoe (retrospective), it would have been best if you put out your big bets when the running count dropped, regardless of what the true count at the time was. However, at the time, looking forward (prospective), you had no way to tell that was about to happen. The best predictor of whether the running count will drop is the true count, which is why your bets should vary with the true count.

On average, at positive true counts, the running count is likely to drop, but the true count is likely to remain the same. That's why true count is so valuable.
 
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