When playing Basic Strategy to the max...

[mikeinjersey]

When playing Basic Strategy to the max, and if your 1 on 1 with the dealer the whole time...

what if you screw up on one hand out of the whole shoe ? (for instance, if you forget to split 3's against a 4 )

Does that completely screw up our 49% chance...and make it into completely unpredictable odds the rest of the shoe.... Or does that just screw it up a tiny bit ? Like it goes down to 48% or 47% ?

This was the first thing that came to my mind when waking up today....so I had to post it.

thx..usually a lotta smart dudes here.

 

[Sucker]

The cards have no memory. You will only affect the hand you screwed up on.
You could split 5's, and THEN you could double down on hard 15; and the rest of the hands in the shoe would not be affected in the SLIGHTEST.

 

[Southpaw]

Sounds like some ploppy rhetoric here.

SP

 

[MeWin$]

Ploppy

Ploopy is as ploppy does.
Didnt you say u were a master card counter?

 

[tribute]

When playing Basic Strategy to the max, and if your 1 on 1 with the dealer the whole time...

what if you screw up on one hand out of the whole shoe ? (for instance, if you forget to split 3's against a 4 )

Does that completely screw up our 49% chance...and make it into completely unpredictable odds the rest of the shoe.... Or does that just screw it up a tiny bit ? Like it goes down to 48% or 47% ?

This was the first thing that came to my mind when waking up today....so I had to post it.

thx..usually a lotta smart dudes here.

I don't think it makes any significant difference, not any where near the change from 48 to 47 %. The fact remains you are in a negative
EV situation. You are still subject to variance. You are gambling.

 

[21gunsalute]

When playing Basic Strategy to the max, and if your 1 on 1 with the dealer the whole time...

what if you screw up on one hand out of the whole shoe ? (for instance, if you forget to split 3's against a 4 )

Does that completely screw up our 49% chance...and make it into completely unpredictable odds the rest of the shoe.... Or does that just screw it up a tiny bit ? Like it goes down to 48% or 47% ?

This was the first thing that came to my mind when waking up today....so I had to post it.

thx..usually a lotta smart dudes here.

The odds are always completely unpredictable for the rest of the shoe. You may lose every hand thereafter. You may win every hand thereafter. Most likely you'll fall somewhere in between these 2 extremes. There is simply no way of knowing what the order or cards to follow will be or how such a play will affect the rest of the shoe.

BTW, not splitting 3's against a 4 isn't the worst play one can make.

 

[mikeinjersey]

The odds are always completely unpredictable for the rest of the shoe. You may lose every hand thereafter. You may win every hand thereafter. Most likely you'll fall somewhere in between these 2 extremes. There is simply no way of knowing what the order or cards to follow will be or how such a play will affect the rest of the shoe.

BTW, not splitting 3's against a 4 isn't the worst play one can make.

Yea , but if you do play it perfectly throughout the whole shoe... Is it really suppose to be that 49% chance each and every shoe.. or is that just crap Dealers try to tell us ?

I've never really had the chance to try it out myself. maybe I should..

 

[zengrifter]

what if you screw up on one hand out of the whole shoe ? (for instance, if you forget to split 3's against a 4 )

Does that completely screw up our 49% chance...and make it into completely unpredictable odds the rest of the shoe.... Or does that just screw it up a tiny bit ? Like it goes down to 48% or 47% ?

Geez Mikey!! Glad you are finally coming clean!!
We always had your interests at heart.
Now PAY ATTENTION! z:laugh:g

 

[gamblingghost]

Yea , but if you do play it perfectly throughout the whole shoe... Is it really suppose to be that 49% chance each and every shoe.. or is that just crap Dealers try to tell us ?

I've never really had the chance to try it out myself. maybe I should..

In the LONG RUN! Some shoes will be very lean, some very rich and the rest inbetween.

 

[aslan]

The cards have no memory. You will only affect the hand you screwed up on.
You could split 5's, and THEN you could double down on hard 15; and the rest of the hands in the shoe would not be affected in the SLIGHTEST.

Not only that, you may do the wrong thing, like the time I accidentally doubled down on a hard 12, and win! You're right, the cards have no memory, and your hand does not it's supposed to bust-- thank your lucky stars for that.

 

[aslan]

In the LONG RUN! Some shoes will be very lean, some very rich and the rest inbetween.

I have been wondering for some time now what the odds are for a shoe to be rich, lean and in between. In my limited experience, rich shoes are few and far between (but not always). :laugh: Any math gurus out there who have worked on this? I guess it would be easy enough to sim it.

 

[21gunsalute]

Yea , but if you do play it perfectly throughout the whole shoe... Is it really suppose to be that 49% chance each and every shoe.. or is that just crap Dealers try to tell us ?

I've never really had the chance to try it out myself. maybe I should..

Yeah Mike, it's 49% each and every shoe. If you play perfect basic strategy and bet $100 each and every shoe you will win back exactly $98 each and every time. But if you make 1 mistake and don't split 3's against a dealer 4 you will fall into the depths of hell and you will lose an amount equal to the national debt each and every time. There are no exceptions to this rule unless you realize your mistake before the next hand is dealt and cry "uncle". Upon hearing this cry of "uncle" the card gods will forgive you and realign the cards back into the sacred flow for the remainder of the shoe.

Of course if you take the advice of dealers you will fall back into the depths of hell, and no cry of "uncle" will save you.

 

[sagefr0g]

I have been wondering for some time now what the odds are for a shoe to be rich, lean and in between. In my limited experience, rich shoes are few and far between (but not always). :laugh: Any math gurus out there who have worked on this? I guess it would be easy enough to sim it.

it's supposed to be pretty much like the image below, aslan.
that stuff came from Wong's Professional Blackjack.
anyway, i think this stuff falls pretty much in the category of expectation, sorta thing, (ie. may or may not happen right now, but over the long run it's a normalized situation)

 

[blackjack avenger]

How Do You Define Rich?

I have been wondering for some time now what the odds are for a shoe to be rich, lean and in between. In my limited experience, rich shoes are few and far between (but not always). :laugh: Any math gurus out there who have worked on this? I guess it would be easy enough to sim it.

tc1 + ?
tc2 + ?
tc3 + ?
max bets?
A shoe that forces you to leave because of max bets, wins, losses etc?

I have some interest in the last reason
:joker::whip:
it's about 45 min. give or take with some variance.
good cards

 

[aslan]

tc1 + ?
tc2 + ?
tc3 + ?
max bets?
A shoe that forces you to leave because of max bets, wins, losses etc?

I have some interest in the last reason
:joker::whip:
it's about 45 min. give or take with some variance.
good cards

A good question. Just thinking about your question has given me new insight into what is a good shoe and what is not. Timing is everything.

If I defined a shoe (the dealt portion) to be rich by the number of tens and aces, it might still not avail much, since if these cards came out at the beginning of the shoe, it would drive the count down and the AP out.

If, however, a shoe were rich in tens and aces that came after a long run of small cards that drove the count well past the pivot point to where an AP would have max bet out, then we would see richness in terms of profits earned.

Obviously, the second situation is a better definition, because it will yield large winnings if we follow normal counting procedures.

So to re-frame my question, I wonder how often a shoe appears that is not only rich in tens and aces, but has them placed in such a way as to yield handsome profits when following normally prescribed betting strategies for card counters.

 

[mikeinjersey]

So why do they say its a 49% chance then ? when playing 1 on 1 vs. the dealer... when playing perfect strategy.

When in fact its never that way....?

Its usually 70% dealer advantage most of the times...

 

[getwellboss]

So why do they say its a 49% chance then ? when playing 1 on 1 vs. the dealer... when playing perfect strategy.

When in fact its never that way....?

Its usually 70% dealer advantage most of the times...

you're looking at this too much in the short term. You need to look at the bigger picture. THAT is the "49%" while playing perfect strategy.

Also it's not 70% dealer advantage most of the time. It varies per deck/decks. Sometimes it will be in your favor, sometimes it wont.

Honestly I don't know of any other ways to explain it to you from what I just said and multiple people have posted on here.

Good luck though.

 

[tribute]

it's supposed to be pretty much like the image below, aslan.
that stuff came from Wong's Professional Blackjack.
anyway, i think this stuff falls pretty much in the category of expectation, sorta thing, (ie. may or may not happen right now, but over the long run it's a normalized situation)

I think I will copy the above chart and put on a strategy card. Maybe keep the ploppies off my back.

 

[21gunsalute]

So why do they say its a 49% chance then ? when playing 1 on 1 vs. the dealer... when playing perfect strategy.

When in fact its never that way....?

Its usually 70% dealer advantage most of the times...

Why would you ever take the advice of a dealer? Probably 99% of them don't know what they're talking about most of the time. They may be able to give you some common sense advice such as "don't double down on hard 19", but that's about it. They don't know the finer points of basic strategy and are more superstitious than the plopiest ploppy. In the last week I've had dealers tell me to never split 3's against a 4, never split 7's against a 7 and one dealer told me she busts when she's showing an Ace 90% of the time. They'll tell you the dealer wins the first hand of the shoe 83% of the time..check that...it's up to 86% now.

You don't have a 49% chance of winning a hand but the HA isn't 70% either. If you play perfect BS you will win around 42-43% of the hands played (can't remember the exact figure-your homework assignment is to look it up and report back to me). The HA works out to around .5% depending on the rules a particular house employs. The reason there is a difference between the HA and the % of hands won is because of the effects of Blackjacks paying 3:2, splits and double downs. If you count cards and/or use other AP techniques you turn the odds into your favor. These are long run figures. For any one shoe YMMV greatly!

This information is posted all over this site, so how and why do you keep posting information on your latest progression scheme when you can't even understand, or simply choose to be totally ignorant of, the simple basic mathematics associated with winning and losing?