When to quit a losing session

[IncrediblePW]

I’ve been APing for about 6 months - playing locally.

I play $50-500 spread sometimes 2x500 maybe 700. Have to keep them guessing. I have 360 hours so far and have been playing quite a bit.

I’ve been taking pretty detailed records of my wins and losses, time played etc. One thing I have noticed and am having a hard time with, is how that I can win multiple sessions - in the $500 to $1500 range but then hit an insane losing session where nothing goes right - and lose $8k or more.

I don’t push past $10k since I don’t want to trigger a CTR.

Likely it’s bad variance but I want to know from more experienced players here - when do you decide to quit a losing session?

For me it has been: I will be persistent until I’m too tired to play.

I could play 6 hours straight and still not get much of break from the cards before I tap out or win my money back. Sometimes I win, but often I run into a wall and anything I do even when the count is good - just doesn’t work.

I’ve had enough insane negative variance swings to I know what that’s all about... and remember reading a similar post - and one reply was something like “why stop getting when you’re closer to the long run?” Touche...

 

[BoSox]

For me it has been: I will be persistent until I’m too tired to play.

I could play 6 hours straight and still not get much of break from the cards before I tap out or win my money back. Sometimes I win, but often I run into a wall and anything I do even when the count is good - just doesn’t work.

Evidently, you think that being behind in a session allows you some sort of free ride to play as long as you please. You got this all wrong, the last thing the casino wants is for you to win back your session loss, and possibly leave with more money. The outcome of winning, or losing large bets is not what gets you thrown out, it is WHEN you make those large bets that open their eyes. I believe you have a better chance of being tossed while being behind, as this will get your attention more to the point of what you are doing is not welcomed.

 

[IncrediblePW]

Evidently, you think that being behind in a session allows you some sort of free ride to play as long as you please. You got this all wrong, the last thing the casino wants is for you to win back your session loss, and possibly leave with more money. The outcome of winning, or losing large bets is not what gets you thrown out, it is WHEN you make those large bets that open their eyes. I believe you have a better chance of being tossed while being behind, as this will get your attention more to the point of what you are doing is not welcomed.

Actually I have been barred from playing at one of the local casinos - and I'm sure I got their attention when I was betting quite heavy (like 2x$1,000) so that place is burned out. Regardless, at this place I play now, I do play quite a bit (hours wise) - but I also employ more cover betting.

Overall - I am not concerned about marathon playing sessions and getting their attention - heat from the pit bosses seems to be super minimal and no counter measures have been taken against me - apparently it seems quite tolerated. I play unrated, partly to avoid them tracking me - and they seem to respect that.

Regardless - when do you decide or what criteria do you use to decide to tap out at a negative session?

Method I've considered:
- stop loss of $4,000 and you're out
- play a limited time - 1-3 hours regardless of win/loss outcome

 

[BoSox]

Regardless - when do you decide or what criteria do you use to decide to tap out at a negative session?

I do not think it is a one size fits all situation, as you will get many different answers based on individuals own personal circumstances that are as different as night and day. Instincts from years of experience cannot be taught in books. Neither can casino comportment.

 

[BoSox]

I’ve been APing for about 6 months - playing locally.

I play $50-500 spread sometimes 2x500 maybe 700. Have to keep them guessing. I have 360 hours so far and have been playing quite a bit.

I hope you don't mind me asking how you reached that level of play after only playing for six months?

 

[IncrediblePW]

I do not think it is a one size fits all situation, as you will get many different answers based on individuals own personal circumstances that are as different as night and day. Instincts from years of experience cannot be taught in books. Neither can casino comportment.

What methods do you use, or what do you personally choose as your best way to gauge if you should just leave and accept the loss for the session?

 

[KewlJ]

Method I've considered:
- stop loss of $4,000 and you're out
- play a limited time - 1-3 hours regardless of win/loss outcome

I play short sessions, so my methodology will be different than someone who only has one or two casinos and must play longer sessions. But, I don't have a stop loss (or win), but I do have "exit triggers" that are designed to keep my sessions short and below amounts that require paperwork, or just draw extra attention in general.

One of those exit triggers is time. I exit after 45 minutes to an hour, if no other exit trigger has been hit.

Two points to keep in mind as you develop your method or plan. Booking a loss is not such a bad thing, especially if playing rated, but even if playing unrated with pit people that see your face regularly. Booking a loss increases longevity.

On the other hand digging out from a big loss back to a winning session, or back to even, or even just cutting a big loss is actually very harmful. Players tend to think that losing gives them some sort of immunity, but it doesn't. So if you sit there and continue playing, digging out from an initial big loss, most likely you are showing your bet spread numerous times. THAT is the danger point.

So you sit there for hours digging out, and feel good having turned a big losing session into a small winning or break even session, but then you get backed off or barred, or if it is a place that doesn't back off or bar players, you have provided them with all the information they need to take whatever counter-measures they take. And very frequently these counter-measures come on your next visit.

Summarizing, a big dig out, showing your spread numerous times to do so = bad. Booking a loss = good.

 

[IncrediblePW]

I hope you don't mind me asking how you reached that level of play after only playing for six months?

I started just gambling in May, was just straight up lucky, won about $10k - hit a string of bad luck, and ended up losing $10k by end of June. I wanted to win my money back, and learned how to count cards - took me about a month to practice and learn and get comfortable in the casino.

If you are asking how I got the bankroll... I just have enough extra money (like $100k) which should allow me to bet at these levels to stay within a reasonable level of Kelly Criterion (not 1%, but I think close enough). I usually only bet get up to a 1x$700 max bet progressively - very seldom am I going 2x$500-$1000.

If you're asking about how I got so many hours - I play pretty much every day, weekdays and weekends 3-6 hours a time - it's kind of like a part time job/serious hobby.

 

[BoSox]

I started just gambling in May, was just straight up lucky, won about $10k - hit a string of bad luck, and ended up losing $10k by end of June. I wanted to win my money back, and learned how to count cards - took me about a month to practice and learn and get comfortable in the casino.

Do yourself a favor and don't think like what you said "I wanted to win my money back" as you will be asking for trouble big time. On the same token do not think in terms of you are now playing with house money when ahead. Both of these ideas are the thoughts of ploppies who do not know better.

 

[BoSox]

What methods do you use, or what do you personally choose as your best way to gauge if you should just leave and accept the loss for the session?

A lot of it is how you project yourself. Sorry, I rather not talk further about my various methods on the matter.

 

[Dummy]

I play unrated, partly to avoid them tracking me - and they seem to respect that.

If you play for the stakes you described without adequate cover they ARE tracking your play. Even with proper cover you should assume they are tracking your play. They have a file on you and add to it each time you play at those stakes. It just may or may not have your personal info associated with the file. If they want your personal info bad enough they have ways of getting it without your knowledge. All you can do is make it as hard as you can for them to get it. Driving a car to the casino associated with your name or address is giving them your personal information. License plates are looked at at choke points as you enter most casinos, if your license plate is red flagged they know you are there before you leave your car. I know people that were backed off in the parking lot at one casino.

But they really don't need your personal info to track your play. They just make up a designation for you. Play at high stakes will be noticed to some degree, which will have your play associated with your own personal file. While it is best not to make things easy for them by providing your information, don't assume you aren't being tracked, or that they don't know who you are because you didn't provide them any personal information. If they want your personal information it is pretty easy to get in this modern age of computers and surveillance everywhere.

 

[Midwest Player]

Are you ahead after playing 6 months? If so by how much? Many small wins and an occasional huge loss is never a good sign. You are probably not doing something right. I tend to fall in this camp of many small wins and a few large losses, but my average loss is never 5 times as large as my average win. My average loss might be 50% more than my average win.

My gut feeling is they tolerate you at those betting levels because you are not a winning player.

 

[Meistro]

"I’ve been taking pretty detailed records of my wins and losses, time played etc. One thing I have noticed and am having a hard time with, is how that I can win multiple sessions - in the $500 to $1500 range but then hit an insane losing session where nothing goes right - and lose $8k or more."


That is inevitable if you are in the habit of quitting as soon as you get slightly ahead but sticking around to grind back your losses if you get stuck. The problem with this hit and run approach is that you will minimize volume when conditions are optimal, and stick around when conditions are bad.

 

[Dummy]

"I’ve been taking pretty detailed records of my wins and losses, time played etc. One thing I have noticed and am having a hard time with, is how that I can win multiple sessions - in the $500 to $1500 range but then hit an insane losing session where nothing goes right - and lose $8k or more."


That is inevitable if you are in the habit of quitting as soon as you get slightly ahead but sticking around to grind back your losses if you get stuck. The problem with this hit and run approach is that you will minimize volume when conditions are optimal, and stick around when conditions are bad.

I could't have said it better myself. It isn't about maximizing hours played. It is about maximizing quality hours played. You don't see optimal conditions much time wise, but you can get in a lot more rounds in quality conditions if you try to play quality conditions while avoiding times when conditions are poor despite playing less time playing quality conditions. Your exit strategy can really up your exposure in the casino while hurting your results. It looks good to post that loss. It is all one big session so exit strategy that doesn't skew results should be independent of results.

 

[21forme]

I could't have said it better myself.

But then you continued on to restate it in twice the number of words