why do you stand on 16 vs 10 if the count is +1, but not 16 vs 7 8 9?

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SilentBob420BMFJ

Banned
here is what im thinking.. when the count is positive your supposed to stand on 16 vs 10, but it takes a high to very high count to stand on 16 vs 7/8/9, and i dont understand why, because when the dealer has a 10, there is a lower chance he will bust, and with a 7/8/9, there is a higher chance he will bust, so why would you take your chances busting on a 16 vs 7/8/9, and then stand on a 16 vs 10? i would think it would be the other way around, where the count would have to be extremely high to stand on 16 vs 10 because there is a very high chance the dealer will have 17-21, as opposed to 7,8,9 where the dealer would have a lesser chance of 17-21..
 
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Just how it turns out

SilentBob420BMFJ said:
here is what im thinking.. when the count is positive your supposed to stand on 16 vs 10, but it takes a high to very high count to stand on 16 vs 7/8/9, and i dont understand why, because when the dealer has a 10, there is a lower chance he will bust, and with a 7/8/9, there is a higher chance he will bust, so why would you take your chances busting on a 16 vs 7/8/9, and then stand on a 16 vs 10? i would think it would be the other way around, where the count would have to be extremely high to stand on 16 vs 10 because there is a very high chance the dealer will have 17-21, as opposed to 7,8,9 where the dealer would have a lesser chance of 17-21..
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When 16 v 7 is hit and doesn't bust, if player draws 2,3,4, or 5 he has gone from the underdog to a big favorite. When 16 v 10 is hit, player becomes the favorite if he draws 3,4, or 5 but is not as big a favorite as when 7 is the up card, so hoping for a dealer bust with a 10 up is a more attractive option than with a 7 up.

k_c
 
I thought about this as well. If you really think about it this makes a lot of sense.

With a 10, you know the dealer doesn't have an Ace. Therefore there is a 7/12 chance of them having a hand.

with a 9 - 7/13 of having a made hand, plus 1/13 of having a 2.
with an 8 - 6/13 of having a made hand, plus 2/13 of having a 2 or 3.
with a 7 - 5/13 of having a made hand, plus 3/13 of having a 2, 3, 4.

Therefore against a:
10 you have about a 58% chance of being beat
9 = 54% of being beat + 7.5% chance of them having a 2 for 11
8 = 46% of being beat + 15% chance of them having 10 or 11
7 = 38% of being beat + 23% chance of them having a 9, 10, or 11

So the indexes are higher for a 16 against a 7-9 than a 10 because there is a better chance, 61%, of them having a hand or 9, 10, or 11 with the undercard with a 7-9 and only 58% with a 10.

Futhermore, what is the chance that if you hit your 16 you are going to have a winning hand? If you hit your 16 v 10 and draw an Ace, 2 or 3, you still have a 4/12 chance of being a loser with just the flip of the down card being a 10. With a 16 v 7, and you draw an Ace, 2, or 3, you have a 4/13 chance of still having a win/push.

So it is better for you to hope for a bust card under the dealers 10 by staying than it is to stay on your 16 v 7, because when the dealer makes a hand with a 10 up card it is going to be, on average, a stronger hand than when he has a 7 up card. And when you hit your 16 and do not bust it is going to hold up better against a 7 than a 10.

Trust your indexes.
 
It's a case of Alternative vs. Alternative

Whenever you're considering hitting 16, your chance to bust is the same, whether the dealer shows a 7, 8, 9 or 10. Now, with a 7 up, the dealer will bust 26% of the time. And with a 10 up, its 23%.

So far, there's not much difference between the four hand scenarios. But here's where the big difference comes in;

If you hit 16 against a 10 and dodge the bullet by catching say, a deuce, the operation was a success, but the patient is still probably going to die. That is, you avoided busting but you'll still probably lose the hand. But if you caught that same deuce against a 7 up, you've probably just made yourself a winner. Yet, you ran the same risk of busting in both spots!

Drawing to 16 against a 7 vs. drawing against the 10 is analogous to drawing for an open-end straight vs. an inside straight in poker. With the open-end straight, you have many more outs to win the hand with, so it's more worthwhile drawing.

You see common players in the casino hitting 16 against a 10 all day long, come hell or high water, such as with 2/5/5/4. Yet they often won't hit their 16 against a 7. It all backwards!
If you catch them in the buffet and cordially try to explain the logic of the numbers within the numbers, you get dismissed as a crackpot. Changing the way players play is a real tough sell.
 
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