You see the next card, What now?

[1357111317]

Was talking to a fellow blackjack AP when we got into a discussion of a situation where you seen the next card that is about to be dealt out of the shoe. You are playing two hands and have two 15's vs a 10 and you are playing 3rd base. The dealer does not have a holecard so if you choose to stand on your hand the next card you see out of the shoe will be the dealers.

In this situation you see a 5 is the next card. It is your turn to act. There is no guarentee that if you take a hit on your first 15 you will see the next card to be played.

Without doing any math what would your guesses be as to what the best play would be? Do you take the hit and hit to 20 on your first and or do you stand on both 15s and give the dealer a 15?

 

[NightStalker]

without doing math

if i were playing, my choices will be:
1) Double 15 Vs 10 and surrender(if allowed) other 15 Vs 10
2) If no surrender allowed and i cant double,.. then I'll probably stand on both

 

[Sonny]

without doing math

I would read ECAA.

-Sonny-

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

It's tempting to just go to the charts, but as a complete shot in the dark, I'd guess that sending the 5 in the dealer's direction would be the best play. Hmm...

 

[Sucker]

This problem comes up quite often for me, so I've done the math before.

For all intents and purposes, the best play is to stand on both hands, and it's not even CLOSE. BOTH hands will be a SIGNIFICANT favorite.

If you're stupid enough to double the first hand and then surrender the 2nd, then and ONLY then is it MATHEMATICALLY the best play, but even so it's just BARELY better than just standing on both. (I'm assuming that you DO realize that if you pull this stunt, it will likely be the last hand you play in THAT particular casino - hence my use of the word "stupid")

If you decide to just HIT the first hand and surrender (or hit) the second, then the amount you gain by having a 20 is actually MORE than offset by the amount you lose on the 2nd hand. You will actually be playing the round at negative EV.

You're saying that in this problem there is no GUARANTEE that you'll see the card that comes AFTER the 5, but depending upon the percentage of the likelihood that you MIGHT; it reaches a point where it IS correct to hit the first hand, and then make your 2nd hand decision accordingly. But you've made it a condition to NOT use math here, so I will respect your request and won't give the answer to THAT question, unless of course you were to request it by P.M.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

That's exactly what I was thinking. I think doubling then surrendering would possibly be optimal, but it would obviously indicate next-card knowledge. I haven't actually looked at the charts yet, but is it definitely optimal to do this instead of standing on both?

 

[1357111317]

If we say no surrender. I know we can just go read CAA for the answers but im curious what peoples first reactions to this are.

 

[johndoe]

Often, the exposure of the next card is a clear screw-up by the dealer, and is known to all the players, and even the floor.

In this case doubling would be perfectly fine. I've had similar things happen, and even had the floor suggest these odd plays.

But otherwise, I'm inclined to go with Sucker on this one. You can probably get away with it (once) if it's a rare occurrence though, or you aren't known as a winner.

 

[NightStalker]

if no surrender

If we say no surrender. I know we can just go read CAA for the answers but im curious what peoples first reactions to this are.

To be more precise, i would have choosen to:

• double and surrender
• double and hit/stand(based on count)
• stand and stand

based on the game and source of error. The only thing I consider stupid is "Donating EV"

 

[Sucker]

Often, the exposure of the next card is a clear screw-up by the dealer, and is known to all the players, and even the floor.

In this case doubling would be perfectly fine. I've had similar things happen, and even had the floor suggest these odd plays.

This is a good point, and in this case double/surrender would be the best play, of course.
But it's still SUCH a close play, if the casino DOESN'T allow surrender;in a neutral count it's actually better to STAND on both hands than it is to double on the first hand and hit the second.

The only thing I consider stupid is "Donating EV"

I guess we can all pretty much agree that getting oneself barred falls under the category of "donating EV".