blackjack pros
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probably 80% of us, why? sounds like your just getting started.. you should go read a book first, it can answer questions faster than us, and more accurately, and also it will answer some other questions you have without you having to ask them.. trust me, if you come on here with absolutely no knowledge, everybody is going to tell you to go read read read..
being an AP doesnt mean its your job.. i AM a beginner at counting, but even if i was an expert, i still wouldnt be doing this for a living, as i dont have a large enuf bankroll.. also, when all is said and done, this is still a game of chance, so you could be a horrible player and still make more money than a super AP, as most people will never hit the 10,000,000 hands mark, which isnt really the long run..
dont be a smartass, you know damn well why.. im going to play dumb and explain it to you.. if you have an advantage at something, you have the advantage no matter how long you play, its just that the actual results could vary greatly in the beginning, and the more you play, the closer you should get to the EV.. flip a coin 10 times, doing 10 trials, and write down your results, then flip a coin 100 times, doing 10 trials, and write down your results.. notice how the former has more wild results than the latter? now take a die, and say that a win = rolling a 1, 2, 3, or 4, and do the same as i said above, and you will see that even in the short run, you should have positive results.. of course you are not even close to guaranteed to have positive results in blackjack, or any gambling in the casino, but it is still in your favor if the EV is positive.. understand?
Yes I do, but do you? I’m being a smartass because I’m trying to make you think about what you said. Think about the questions I asked. Does it still make sense? Actually, you can ignore the first question. It was rhetorical. But think about the other two questions.
Yes I understand, but you didn’t answer my questions. If there is no guarantee that I will win, how do people make a living year after year from gambling? How do people win consistently if their chances are “not even close” to having a positive result? How is it possible for people to approach long-term results every year? Do pro players play 10,000,000 hands every year? Maybe the long run isn’t as long as you think it is. That’s all I’m saying. I mean, if I knew I had to play 10 million hands to overcome the variance I would quit today and give up forever.
Beating BJ isn't nearly as difficult as you make it seem. It's hard, but not impossible.
-Sonny-
Yes I understand, but you didn’t answer my questions. If there is no guarantee that I will win, how do people make a living year after year from gambling? How do people win consistently if their chances are “not even close” to having a positive result? How is it possible for people to approach long-term results every year? Do pro players play 10,000,000 hands every year? Maybe the long run isn’t as long as you think it is. That’s all I’m saying. I mean, if I knew I had to play 10 million hands to overcome the variance I would quit today and give up forever.
Beating BJ isn't nearly as difficult as you make it seem. It's hard, but not impossible.
-Sonny-
The "long run" is like life. Statistically you get 70-90 years. You might get 110, or you might drop dead tomorrow. But when you plan for your future, you don't plan on living to 110 or dropping dead tomorrow as either is unlikely.
Likewise, a frame of 10,000-25,000 hands is the number of hands in which we have a reasonable expectation of being ahead. Nonetheless the next time you go out to play you might empty out a tray (110), or you might empty out your pockets and have to go home (drop dead). Expect neither- plan on the 10,000-25,000 hands and worry about your expected win rate (being alive and healthy at 80), not your daily results.
Likewise, a frame of 10,000-25,000 hands is the number of hands in which we have a reasonable expectation of being ahead. Nonetheless the next time you go out to play you might empty out a tray (110), or you might empty out your pockets and have to go home (drop dead). Expect neither- plan on the 10,000-25,000 hands and worry about your expected win rate (being alive and healthy at 80), not your daily results.
how do u not understand what i said? the people who make a living at blackjack, first off, do have some luck involved, and secondly, if you have the advantage, you have the advantage no matter how much you play, which means that as an AP, you have at least a 51% chance of coming out on top, thus if you keep repeating that, you will get closer and closer, and the more of a chance you have of being ahead.. what else is there to explain? you completely twisted my words btw.. "How do people win consistently if their chances are “not even close” to having a positive result?".. i never said that, and YOU need to read what i write more carefully, i said "their GUARANTEE is not even close to being a winner", there is a huge difference between gurantee, and chance.. how you phrased it basically said that i was claiming everybody has -EV..
i could make you eat your own words by saying in another post "you can run a sim with only 500,000 hands, thats big enuf" and here you would come as usual, "bob, thats wrong, 500,000 hands isnt sufficient".. even tho u didnt actually say it, let me ask, if you could hit the long run in say, less than 1 million hands, then why dont people run sims like that? if somebody asked how many hands have to be in a sim, are you saying you wouldnt say millions? btw, do you have any idea how many card counters start out with a sufficient bankroll, knowledge, and bet spread and still lose the majority or all of their bankroll? in a few of the books i have read, it still says you have to be lucky.. also, assuming you gamble for a living, how do you know that you just werent lucky, and that the long run IS very far off? even you would agree that just because you are at your EV, doesnt mean you are at the long run.. you told me i was wrong i this, but its the truth, the long run is what you want it to be! you seem to have this ploppy idea that you cant be a winning AP unless you hit the long run.. there is the 70% long run, 80%, 90%, etc, but most books view the long run as over 99% accurate, so when you talk about the long run, which do you speak of? 90% within your EV? 95%?.. long run and RoR are similar, in that, what chance/accuracy do you want?
"Yes I do, but do you? I’m being a smartass because I’m trying to make you think about what you said. Think about the questions I asked." sounds like your trying to make a fool of me, not teach me, because if you wanted to teach me something that i was wrong on, you could have just came out and said it.. can you please tell me how old you are? things may make more/less sense then about why you act the way you act towards me.. i think that you think that i think i know it all, and that i think all my opinions are facts, and nobody can change my mind.. if you think that, then clearly you havent been reading my posts, or more likely, you have been using selective memory for all the posts where you responded to me "thats exactly right", and just been dying for a post where i use the words always, never, not possible, no chance, etc so you can try to make me look like a fool, when i usually just end up explaining how you misunderstood, exaggerated, or twisted my words..
i could make you eat your own words by saying in another post "you can run a sim with only 500,000 hands, thats big enuf" and here you would come as usual, "bob, thats wrong, 500,000 hands isnt sufficient".. even tho u didnt actually say it, let me ask, if you could hit the long run in say, less than 1 million hands, then why dont people run sims like that? if somebody asked how many hands have to be in a sim, are you saying you wouldnt say millions? btw, do you have any idea how many card counters start out with a sufficient bankroll, knowledge, and bet spread and still lose the majority or all of their bankroll? in a few of the books i have read, it still says you have to be lucky.. also, assuming you gamble for a living, how do you know that you just werent lucky, and that the long run IS very far off? even you would agree that just because you are at your EV, doesnt mean you are at the long run.. you told me i was wrong i this, but its the truth, the long run is what you want it to be! you seem to have this ploppy idea that you cant be a winning AP unless you hit the long run.. there is the 70% long run, 80%, 90%, etc, but most books view the long run as over 99% accurate, so when you talk about the long run, which do you speak of? 90% within your EV? 95%?.. long run and RoR are similar, in that, what chance/accuracy do you want?
"Yes I do, but do you? I’m being a smartass because I’m trying to make you think about what you said. Think about the questions I asked." sounds like your trying to make a fool of me, not teach me, because if you wanted to teach me something that i was wrong on, you could have just came out and said it.. can you please tell me how old you are? things may make more/less sense then about why you act the way you act towards me.. i think that you think that i think i know it all, and that i think all my opinions are facts, and nobody can change my mind.. if you think that, then clearly you havent been reading my posts, or more likely, you have been using selective memory for all the posts where you responded to me "thats exactly right", and just been dying for a post where i use the words always, never, not possible, no chance, etc so you can try to make me look like a fool, when i usually just end up explaining how you misunderstood, exaggerated, or twisted my words..
I'd considering 10,000,000 hands pretty close to the long run.. becuase I think once I get to that point I will have completelly lost a sense of the value of money.
I am by no means a full time pro BJ player. But I am making about 3.5 times as much playing blackjack as I am at my job right now. and I only put in MAYBE 10-12 hours a week.
I am by no means a full time pro BJ player. But I am making about 3.5 times as much playing blackjack as I am at my job right now. and I only put in MAYBE 10-12 hours a week.
I would say it depends on the situation. A game with low variance can use less trials and still have a low margin of error while a game with high variance will require more trials. For BJ I would say 500 millions hands is very good. But 500 million hands is just for very accurate results, not for actual play. If a sim says that my EV is $43.17 per hour and I only win $43 per hour, I don’t really care. Even $40 or $50 would be fine. My actual results don’t have to be nearly as accurate as a computer simulation. That’s why the actual long run can be much sooner than you expect.
You calculate your long run index (N0) so that you know how many hands you have to play to overcome different levels of variance. That’s how AM got his 10,000-25,000 hand estimate. If you count cards for a living then you will know how long you have to play to get the positive results you’re expecting. You’ll know how far away the long run is. You’ll know the difference between luck and skill.
Well, you can’t expect to be a winning AP unless you’re in it for the long run. Sure, you might get lucky in the short run, but that’s what the ploppies are trying to do. To try to win in the short run is ploppy logic. You might be a great player with a nice advantage and still lose in the short run. You have to expect that. In order to reasonably expect to be a winning AP you have to overcome the variance. Getting an advantage makes you an AP, but overcoming the variance is what makes you a winning AP.
And since when is achieving a long-term goal a ploppy idea? I think it’s the other way around.
It looks like most of the books you read were about computer simulations, not actual play. As I said, in actual play you can get away with much less accuracy that in simulations and still make a big profit. I would imagine that many players would be happy with a 92% chance of reaching their EV (or above), but I can’t speak for everybody.
Also, keep in mind that that doesn't mean you will be within 92% of your EV, it means that you have a 92% chance of reaching your EV or higher. That is another difference between computer simulations and actual play.
I could just come out and tell you everything, but that wouldn’t make you learn it. You said that you want to know why certain answers are correct. If I just tell you the answers you won’t understand why they make sense or how I reached that conclusion. The best way to do that is for you to think about things and figure them out on your own. My questions are trying to steer your thoughts in the right direction. Those questions will make you think about certain concepts. When you reach the answers yourself you will understand the whole idea, not just the final answer. That’s what you said you wanted.
-Sonny-
You calculate your long run index (N0) so that you know how many hands you have to play to overcome different levels of variance. That’s how AM got his 10,000-25,000 hand estimate. If you count cards for a living then you will know how long you have to play to get the positive results you’re expecting. You’ll know how far away the long run is. You’ll know the difference between luck and skill.
Well, you can’t expect to be a winning AP unless you’re in it for the long run. Sure, you might get lucky in the short run, but that’s what the ploppies are trying to do. To try to win in the short run is ploppy logic. You might be a great player with a nice advantage and still lose in the short run. You have to expect that. In order to reasonably expect to be a winning AP you have to overcome the variance. Getting an advantage makes you an AP, but overcoming the variance is what makes you a winning AP.
And since when is achieving a long-term goal a ploppy idea? I think it’s the other way around.
It looks like most of the books you read were about computer simulations, not actual play. As I said, in actual play you can get away with much less accuracy that in simulations and still make a big profit. I would imagine that many players would be happy with a 92% chance of reaching their EV (or above), but I can’t speak for everybody.
Also, keep in mind that that doesn't mean you will be within 92% of your EV, it means that you have a 92% chance of reaching your EV or higher. That is another difference between computer simulations and actual play.
I could just come out and tell you everything, but that wouldn’t make you learn it. You said that you want to know why certain answers are correct. If I just tell you the answers you won’t understand why they make sense or how I reached that conclusion. The best way to do that is for you to think about things and figure them out on your own. My questions are trying to steer your thoughts in the right direction. Those questions will make you think about certain concepts. When you reach the answers yourself you will understand the whole idea, not just the final answer. That’s what you said you wanted.
-Sonny-
I was following this post before, and came across it again because I was unclear about something. Everyone says here that it takes more than good counting skills, RC to TC conversion, and making proper bet spreads to play perfect blackjack. I know there are more advanced techniques such as shuffle tracking and hole carding, but I play in AC where ASM's are used and they use the mirror to check for BJ, thus discarding these techniques that can be used in casinos. I'm wondering what other techniques you are talking about because I know how to count, convert, make some index plays, and spread and I am interested in taking it to the next level. Are you talking about disguising your bets and to make yourself not look like a counter? I've been practicing for about a year now and feel like I need to keep moving forward.
Yeah, “perfect” blackjack often doesn’t involve card counting at all.
I’d say you’ve got a great start already, but there are a few more details that need to be worked out. Things like deck estimations, backcounting techniques, optimal bet sizing, and understanding variance are all important parts of being a successful card counter.
Don’t stop there. There are plenty of other techniques that you might be able to use. This thread will give you an idea of a few other opportunitues you might find:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=3995
-Sonny-
I’d say you’ve got a great start already, but there are a few more details that need to be worked out. Things like deck estimations, backcounting techniques, optimal bet sizing, and understanding variance are all important parts of being a successful card counter.
Don’t stop there. There are plenty of other techniques that you might be able to use. This thread will give you an idea of a few other opportunitues you might find:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=3995
-Sonny-