Sonny said:
Yes I do, but do you? I’m being a smartass because I’m trying to make you think about what you said. Think about the questions I asked. Does it still make sense? Actually, you can ignore the first question. It was rhetorical. But think about the other two questions.
Yes I understand, but you didn’t answer my questions. If there is no guarantee that I will win, how do people make a living year after year from gambling? How do people win consistently if their chances are “not even close” to having a positive result? How is it possible for people to approach long-term results every year? Do pro players play 10,000,000 hands every year? Maybe the long run isn’t as long as you think it is. That’s all I’m saying. I mean, if I knew I had to play 10 million hands to overcome the variance I would quit today and give up forever.
Beating BJ isn't nearly as difficult as you make it seem. It's hard, but not impossible.
-Sonny-
how do u not understand what i said? the people who make a living at blackjack, first off, do have some luck involved, and secondly, if you have the advantage, you have the advantage no matter how much you play, which means that as an AP, you have at least a 51% chance of coming out on top, thus if you keep repeating that, you will get closer and closer, and the more of a chance you have of being ahead.. what else is there to explain? you completely twisted my words btw.. "How do people win consistently if their chances are “not even close” to having a positive result?".. i never said that, and YOU need to read what i write more carefully, i said "their GUARANTEE is not even close to being a winner", there is a huge difference between gurantee, and chance.. how you phrased it basically said that i was claiming everybody has -EV..
i could make you eat your own words by saying in another post "you can run a sim with only 500,000 hands, thats big enuf" and here you would come as usual, "bob, thats wrong, 500,000 hands isnt sufficient".. even tho u didnt actually say it, let me ask, if you could hit the long run in say, less than 1 million hands, then why dont people run sims like that? if somebody asked how many hands have to be in a sim, are you saying you wouldnt say millions? btw, do you have any idea how many card counters start out with a sufficient bankroll, knowledge, and bet spread and still lose the majority or all of their bankroll? in a few of the books i have read, it still says you have to be lucky.. also, assuming you gamble for a living, how do you know that you just werent lucky, and that the long run IS very far off? even you would agree that just because you are at your EV, doesnt mean you are at the long run.. you told me i was wrong i this, but its the truth, the long run is what you want it to be! you seem to have this ploppy idea that you cant be a winning AP unless you hit the long run.. there is the 70% long run, 80%, 90%, etc, but most books view the long run as over 99% accurate, so when you talk about the long run, which do you speak of? 90% within your EV? 95%?.. long run and RoR are similar, in that, what chance/accuracy do you want?
"Yes I do, but do you? I’m being a smartass because I’m trying to make you think about what you said. Think about the questions I asked." sounds like your trying to make a fool of me, not teach me, because if you wanted to teach me something that i was wrong on, you could have just came out and said it.. can you please tell me how old you are? things may make more/less sense then about why you act the way you act towards me.. i think that you think that i think i know it all, and that i think all my opinions are facts, and nobody can change my mind.. if you think that, then clearly you havent been reading my posts, or more likely, you have been using selective memory for all the posts where you responded to me "thats exactly right", and just been dying for a post where i use the words always, never, not possible, no chance, etc so you can try to make me look like a fool, when i usually just end up explaining how you misunderstood, exaggerated, or twisted my words..