BlackJack in Bars
- Thread starter Stickum11
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None taken ohbehave lol.
But, you know, most of the more general stuff like jumping to max at the first + count, fewer units of roll in better games with same risk, the different amounts one bets at various TC's when pen changes, when max bet occurs, etc isn't really guessing since it's trueish for just about any game when pen increases drastically.
So, I'll state unequivocably, that making a max bet in both a 3/4 game and a 3.5/4 with these rules, compared to betting optimally, and playing-all while using indexes, at +5, as a some posters have "guessed" is, how should I say it, wrong. As wrong as the day is long. It was wrong yesterday, it's wrong today and it'll be wrong tomorrow. That's not a guess. The only guess is to what degree it is wrong. So I guessed +6 in 3/4 and +8 in 3.5/4.
The same goes for making max bet at TC+1 or the first + count that has an advantage. It will turn a bed of roses into the manure that grows them. I know this is true. My guess of it maybe not even doubling EV while increasing variance by a factor of 5X was a guess. If it were to actually double EV while only increasing variance by 4X, I'd be a little surprised. I think that was intended for the better game lol.
I did stick my neck out a little suggesting the specific $spreads at the specific TC's for each game lol. But it's a guess rooted in some reasonably (as I see it lol) guessed numbers at least lol. Not a guess pulled out of thin air as seems to be the oft-preferred method here lol. There actually exist ways to figure out an optimal spread. My ways are not as accurate as a sim's but they're usually pretty close.
Mostly in the hope someone could run 2 real sims for me and take my guesswork out of it lol. And so I could compare my "black magic" ways with reality lol.
The OP can take his best guess on the best guess here and bet his money on the guess he likes best lol.
Any guess has some degree of accuracy lol.
I guess maybe you picked on me because I got alot more specific in my guesses, perhaps doing "crazy" stuff like the self-evident suggesting a different $amount at different TC's for a different pen level? lol.
We're all trying to help this guy but, my best guess, is he was getting some truly awful guesses as to what he should do lol.
I just couldn't take it anymore - "aggressive spreads" with max bets at +1 and guessed $rolls with truly guessed risks while admitting, dare I ask what's the point, all without running a single number lmao. Now that's what you call a guess.
Didn't mean to rant on lol. Absolutely no offense taken - you're absolutely right - I violated my own rule of running a sim so I don't have to guess lol.
But, you know, most of the more general stuff like jumping to max at the first + count, fewer units of roll in better games with same risk, the different amounts one bets at various TC's when pen changes, when max bet occurs, etc isn't really guessing since it's trueish for just about any game when pen increases drastically.
So, I'll state unequivocably, that making a max bet in both a 3/4 game and a 3.5/4 with these rules, compared to betting optimally, and playing-all while using indexes, at +5, as a some posters have "guessed" is, how should I say it, wrong. As wrong as the day is long. It was wrong yesterday, it's wrong today and it'll be wrong tomorrow. That's not a guess. The only guess is to what degree it is wrong. So I guessed +6 in 3/4 and +8 in 3.5/4.
The same goes for making max bet at TC+1 or the first + count that has an advantage. It will turn a bed of roses into the manure that grows them. I know this is true. My guess of it maybe not even doubling EV while increasing variance by a factor of 5X was a guess. If it were to actually double EV while only increasing variance by 4X, I'd be a little surprised. I think that was intended for the better game lol.
I did stick my neck out a little suggesting the specific $spreads at the specific TC's for each game lol. But it's a guess rooted in some reasonably (as I see it lol) guessed numbers at least lol. Not a guess pulled out of thin air as seems to be the oft-preferred method here lol. There actually exist ways to figure out an optimal spread. My ways are not as accurate as a sim's but they're usually pretty close.
Mostly in the hope someone could run 2 real sims for me and take my guesswork out of it lol. And so I could compare my "black magic" ways with reality lol.
The OP can take his best guess on the best guess here and bet his money on the guess he likes best lol.
Any guess has some degree of accuracy lol.
I guess maybe you picked on me because I got alot more specific in my guesses, perhaps doing "crazy" stuff like the self-evident suggesting a different $amount at different TC's for a different pen level? lol.
We're all trying to help this guy but, my best guess, is he was getting some truly awful guesses as to what he should do lol.
I just couldn't take it anymore - "aggressive spreads" with max bets at +1 and guessed $rolls with truly guessed risks while admitting, dare I ask what's the point, all without running a single number lmao. Now that's what you call a guess.
Didn't mean to rant on lol. Absolutely no offense taken - you're absolutely right - I violated my own rule of running a sim so I don't have to guess lol.
You may not be considering that the OP hasn't stated a bankroll.
Table max of $25 doesn't necessarily mean its the player's max bet for his bankroll. If his BR and risk tolerance is such that a $25 bet can be placed at TC+1 then I would have to agree with the others that he should spread $1 at TC0 to $25 at TC+1.
He should be playing the table max at whatever count his BR and risk tolerance call for and develop a spread for that, whether he hits table max at +1 or +5 or whatever the case may be.
If he has a BR of 100 max bets then a sim probably isn't even necessary but certainly wouldn't hurt.
Table max of $25 doesn't necessarily mean its the player's max bet for his bankroll. If his BR and risk tolerance is such that a $25 bet can be placed at TC+1 then I would have to agree with the others that he should spread $1 at TC0 to $25 at TC+1.
He should be playing the table max at whatever count his BR and risk tolerance call for and develop a spread for that, whether he hits table max at +1 or +5 or whatever the case may be.
If he has a BR of 100 max bets then a sim probably isn't even necessary but certainly wouldn't hurt.
If his bankroll is adequate, jumping right to $25 (or even multiple hands of $25) at +1 is both correct and optimal. Optimal=EV*BR, right?
Assuming a $10k BR, if the EV at +1 is around 0.34%, it would imply an optimal bet of $34. Moving to $25 at +1 would be about 0.75 Kelly. Seems ok to me, but the hourly win is modest (~$10-ish). Obviously if the BR is bigger the ROR is diminished much further, or spread to 3+ hands quickly.
Assuming a $10k BR, if the EV at +1 is around 0.34%, it would imply an optimal bet of $34. Moving to $25 at +1 would be about 0.75 Kelly. Seems ok to me, but the hourly win is modest (~$10-ish). Obviously if the BR is bigger the ROR is diminished much further, or spread to 3+ hands quickly.
his bankroll is $5k and is replenish-able.
waiting to max bet $25 at TC +4,5,6 is a waste of time.
if you were backcounting this game with a $5k bankroll you would wong in around tc +1-2 and bet $25. you could spread to two hands at TC+4ish.
so spreading from $1 to $25 is going to get more money, in this game than bet ramping.with such a large BR compared to max bets you can and should ramp faster if making money is the goal; with higher variance, but a $5k bankroll can tolerate this level of betting. I don't have time to boot into windows to sim it, but at this rate i'm sure someone else will....
waiting to max bet $25 at TC +4,5,6 is a waste of time.
if you were backcounting this game with a $5k bankroll you would wong in around tc +1-2 and bet $25. you could spread to two hands at TC+4ish.
so spreading from $1 to $25 is going to get more money, in this game than bet ramping.with such a large BR compared to max bets you can and should ramp faster if making money is the goal; with higher variance, but a $5k bankroll can tolerate this level of betting. I don't have time to boot into windows to sim it, but at this rate i'm sure someone else will....
Even betting aggressively, I'd spitball that your max earning potential might be $2-$5 per 100 hands.
And you mentioned tipping the dealers, so if you tip $1 per blackjack (about 5 per 100 hands), then you've just reverted back to a negative expectation game.
So it seems like a good game, and it might be a great way to kill time, and hopefully you'd get free drinks, but I wouldn't take it too seriously from a financial perspective.
And you mentioned tipping the dealers, so if you tip $1 per blackjack (about 5 per 100 hands), then you've just reverted back to a negative expectation game.
So it seems like a good game, and it might be a great way to kill time, and hopefully you'd get free drinks, but I wouldn't take it too seriously from a financial perspective.
This is the best advice. I will only add that waiting until TC of +2 to bet two hands of $25 will cost you very little in terms of expectation, lowers your variance, and gives you a fudge factor in case you make a small deck estimation error or counting error. Wong out if you can get a new shuffle on a fast table elsewhere at TC - 1, ask for that great pen, and remember any tips you give your buddies are hurting you bottom line. You'll make around $15 / 100 hands so decide before hand how much you will give away, don't base it on streaks.
BW
BW
I thought he had stated a roll of $5K or so. No matter though. It's more than adequate if he bets optimally. If he bets non-optimally, as in $1 at every 0 or less count and $25 at every + count, he will not be betting in a way to maximize the ratio of EV to SD. Like I said he will probably not even be doubling his EV but likely increasing his variance by 5X per round.
Liike you say, he then needs alot more roll to have the same risk. And he has tiurned a game with a SCORE of maybe 100 to one maybe in the 60's.
If he has a roll of 100 max bets and bets optimally, he can have a pretty low risk, If he bets a $2500 roll doing what you suggest, his risk could jump 10 times to what it was. It could even turn a 0.1% ROR into an 8% ROR. That's increasing risk by 80 just becayuse one is choosing to not bet optimally.
Whatever, hope someone posts a 3/4 and 3.5/4 sim so you can call me full of it lol.
Well, not quite.
A full-kelly optimal bet would be adv*roll/variance.
So at a 0.34% adv with a 10K roll it would be $34/variance. It happens variance is around 76-78% or so I think. So a $25 bet would be a full-kelly bet at that count. Not a .75 Kelly bet.
Then what are you going to do at +4 with a 2.2 adv? Bet 10000*.022*.77 or say $170 when the table max is $25? Bet full-kelly at +1 but one-seventh-Kelly at +4?
The point of an optimal spread is to make it so it all averages out to what maximizes the growth of your roll. Any play-all spread will be over-betting a pure Kelly bet in minus counts since one would prefer to not play. Any play-all spread will be under-betting a pure Kelly bet in high + counts just becasue 1-50 spreads have been deemed impractical for the most part. So one must use a fixed spread to optimize the average of it all when all is said and done.
For some reason I guess that is what makes the most sense to me but like ohbehave and others seem to prefer, betting table max, or, indeed, why not even entire roll since after all you are enjoying an advantage at that point in time, at any and every + count that carries an advantage will maximize EV.
I'd prefer to maximize growth, not EV.
A full-kelly optimal bet would be adv*roll/variance.
So at a 0.34% adv with a 10K roll it would be $34/variance. It happens variance is around 76-78% or so I think. So a $25 bet would be a full-kelly bet at that count. Not a .75 Kelly bet.
Then what are you going to do at +4 with a 2.2 adv? Bet 10000*.022*.77 or say $170 when the table max is $25? Bet full-kelly at +1 but one-seventh-Kelly at +4?
The point of an optimal spread is to make it so it all averages out to what maximizes the growth of your roll. Any play-all spread will be over-betting a pure Kelly bet in minus counts since one would prefer to not play. Any play-all spread will be under-betting a pure Kelly bet in high + counts just becasue 1-50 spreads have been deemed impractical for the most part. So one must use a fixed spread to optimize the average of it all when all is said and done.
For some reason I guess that is what makes the most sense to me but like ohbehave and others seem to prefer, betting table max, or, indeed, why not even entire roll since after all you are enjoying an advantage at that point in time, at any and every + count that carries an advantage will maximize EV.
I'd prefer to maximize growth, not EV.
It just occurred to me, if noone wants to do a CVCX sim for me in a 4D, :cry:, S17 normal DAS, split to 4 hands, Hi-Lo with indexes, no surrender.
normal Ace stuff, DOA, etc, no spreading crap, no back-counting stuff, no wonging out stuff, I'm gonna do a Powersim tomorrow and see what it says lmao. Powersim will calc TC's to exact card but there's nothing I can do about that. An optimal play-all 1-25 spread with a $10K roll assuming full-kelly.
For both a 3/4 and 3.5 pen level. Just 1 player to keep it simple. I can assume 100/hds/hr from there lol. Or 200 if you want lol.
It may not be the exact game this guy is talking about but it sounds close enough to me.
I'd prefer a CH 10 CVCX sim if it's available on principal lol. Also becasue I'm used to freq as a %age and SD - Psim gives actual number of hands and variance lol. But CVCX also at least can use a more realistic half or whole deck estimation for a TC. Pick either one. Pick exact card if you want.
I don't even know what indexes Psim uses - I think maybe more or less the I18.
I forgot all about the fact I can run free Powersims. Love to compare it to a CVCX sim, hopefully with as many identical assumptions as possible for the heck of it. Powersims are a pain for me so, someone, give me 2 pretty pictures tomorrow lol.
normal Ace stuff, DOA, etc, no spreading crap, no back-counting stuff, no wonging out stuff, I'm gonna do a Powersim tomorrow and see what it says lmao. Powersim will calc TC's to exact card but there's nothing I can do about that. An optimal play-all 1-25 spread with a $10K roll assuming full-kelly.
For both a 3/4 and 3.5 pen level. Just 1 player to keep it simple. I can assume 100/hds/hr from there lol. Or 200 if you want lol.
It may not be the exact game this guy is talking about but it sounds close enough to me.
I'd prefer a CH 10 CVCX sim if it's available on principal lol. Also becasue I'm used to freq as a %age and SD - Psim gives actual number of hands and variance lol. But CVCX also at least can use a more realistic half or whole deck estimation for a TC. Pick either one. Pick exact card if you want.
I don't even know what indexes Psim uses - I think maybe more or less the I18.
I forgot all about the fact I can run free Powersims. Love to compare it to a CVCX sim, hopefully with as many identical assumptions as possible for the heck of it. Powersims are a pain for me so, someone, give me 2 pretty pictures tomorrow lol.
Full Kelly is just adv*BR. The reduction per variance is an approximation used, approximately equal to going "3/4 Kelly" in this case.
http://wizardofodds.com/kelly
So a full Kelly bet for a $10k roll would be $34, and $25 would be about 75% Kelly, or roughly "full Kelly divided by variance". But that only applies for a +1 count; bets on any higher counts would be well under 75% or even 50% Kelly. I didn't calculate the weighted average, but it's probably in the 50% Kelly ballpark, which is quite reasonable.
http://wizardofodds.com/kelly
So a full Kelly bet for a $10k roll would be $34, and $25 would be about 75% Kelly, or roughly "full Kelly divided by variance". But that only applies for a +1 count; bets on any higher counts would be well under 75% or even 50% Kelly. I didn't calculate the weighted average, but it's probably in the 50% Kelly ballpark, which is quite reasonable.
No, the variance needs to be included in the main formula. Technically Kelly=Edge/Odds, but in BJ we do not have constant odds so we substitute the variance which is nearly identical. That gives us Kelly=Edge/Variance. As The Wizard says in the link you gave:
“A card counter perceives a 1% advantage at the given count…If the standard deviation is 1.15, then the variance is 1.152 = 1.3225. The portion of bankroll to bet is 0.01 / 1.3225 = 0.76%.”
So with a $10k bankroll and a 0.34% advantage you would bet 10,000 * 0.0034 / 1.33 = $25.56 for full Kelly.
-Sonny-
“A card counter perceives a 1% advantage at the given count…If the standard deviation is 1.15, then the variance is 1.152 = 1.3225. The portion of bankroll to bet is 0.01 / 1.3225 = 0.76%.”
So with a $10k bankroll and a 0.34% advantage you would bet 10,000 * 0.0034 / 1.33 = $25.56 for full Kelly.
-Sonny-
Hello all! I used to post on here alot about a year ago when I first started taking CC seriously, I got lucky and made some very nice coin, in fact some of you on here I feel didn't believe me. Long story short my cover was not good enough to keep frequenting Vegas. I'm sure now I could get a few good days in Vegas again as it has been over a year from my last backoff ( 1 of 8).
Now to this thread, I myself live in ND, I play the bars quite a bit. This game is very beatable, there is 00000000 heat, the only question you have to ask yourself is: Do I really want to fleece this charity? Well, there are alot of drunks that lose money every night in the bars playing BJ, I for one stop when I get ahead $200.00, unless there are so many idiots that together are down more than that amount while I'm playing, then I'll keep playing as I won't feel bad about winning. (not that I feel that bad anyway) There is BJ in just about every town, and every town has there own charities, so it is easy to spread it around. Also, these "charities" aren't like feed the homeless or handicapped kids types of things. To give you a few examples, one is Prairie Public TV another is a Hockey Club. The original poster is right about Pen, it is totally dealer dependant, I can talk most dealers into about 1/2 deck cutoff, just a few tokes takes care of that.
I'm going to vegas this weekend, gonna play some BJ while I'm there, is the heat level any higher recently with the economic slowdown in Vegas?
Now to this thread, I myself live in ND, I play the bars quite a bit. This game is very beatable, there is 00000000 heat, the only question you have to ask yourself is: Do I really want to fleece this charity? Well, there are alot of drunks that lose money every night in the bars playing BJ, I for one stop when I get ahead $200.00, unless there are so many idiots that together are down more than that amount while I'm playing, then I'll keep playing as I won't feel bad about winning. (not that I feel that bad anyway) There is BJ in just about every town, and every town has there own charities, so it is easy to spread it around. Also, these "charities" aren't like feed the homeless or handicapped kids types of things. To give you a few examples, one is Prairie Public TV another is a Hockey Club. The original poster is right about Pen, it is totally dealer dependant, I can talk most dealers into about 1/2 deck cutoff, just a few tokes takes care of that.
I'm going to vegas this weekend, gonna play some BJ while I'm there, is the heat level any higher recently with the economic slowdown in Vegas?
The Heat is Up in Las Vegas.
I was in Las vegas for a week recently, but I cannot reply to your question because I did not play at enough stores.
However, I can answer via second-hand anecdotes, a consensus of which supports the rumor's that the Heat has reached a Fever Pitch in L.V.
Indeed, there is more heat than ever due to the economic situation creating a lengthy list of bankruptcies.
At the Craps Tables, some casinos are no longer permitting dice-setting I am told. Perhaps our leader, S.W. can comment on this.
I presume that you know that in Las Vegas, the two major casino proprietors are Harrah's Entertainment and MGM-Mirage. Together they own/operate much of the action on the strip. BOTH are in financial quicksand.
This week Terrible's has been divested of their casinos and The Station Casinos chain is looking for a buyer. The Stratosphere is under new management, although that news is what, 2 or 3 months old ?
I was in Las vegas for a week recently, but I cannot reply to your question because I did not play at enough stores.
However, I can answer via second-hand anecdotes, a consensus of which supports the rumor's that the Heat has reached a Fever Pitch in L.V.
Indeed, there is more heat than ever due to the economic situation creating a lengthy list of bankruptcies.
At the Craps Tables, some casinos are no longer permitting dice-setting I am told. Perhaps our leader, S.W. can comment on this.
I presume that you know that in Las Vegas, the two major casino proprietors are Harrah's Entertainment and MGM-Mirage. Together they own/operate much of the action on the strip. BOTH are in financial quicksand.
This week Terrible's has been divested of their casinos and The Station Casinos chain is looking for a buyer. The Stratosphere is under new management, although that news is what, 2 or 3 months old ?
Thank you Flash, wow not alowing dice setting? that is unreal, I myself set the dice, whether I gain an edge doing it is arguable. I guess if Vegas is going to sweat setting the dice I just may as well play at my local Indian Casinos, I hate heat, I just hate it. I never once sensed heat until I started CC, then after that I sensed it more at the dice table from the pits. What I'm saying is I was pretty much oblivious to heat when I didn't know a thing about CC, so ya they prob. watched me at dice table before but I never paid attention.
I will be playing this weekend on strip and will update all on around 3/20. By the way there is alot of people trying to set dice lately, over 90% of them have no clue, the only thing they do is slow the game down.
I will be playing this weekend on strip and will update all on around 3/20. By the way there is alot of people trying to set dice lately, over 90% of them have no clue, the only thing they do is slow the game down.
runningaces,
I really need to clarify re: dice
The heat centers around hitting the back wall.
If the dice are NOT "set" you'll not here a peep from the "Boxman"
but if they are set and they do not hit the back wall,
do not be too surprised if they warn you, and then "back you off"
from Craps, at least if you are betting enough to make them "sweat."
p.s. One place that I do recall having heard about this happening,
is "Green Valley Ranch"
I really need to clarify re: dice
The heat centers around hitting the back wall.
If the dice are NOT "set" you'll not here a peep from the "Boxman"
but if they are set and they do not hit the back wall,
do not be too surprised if they warn you, and then "back you off"
from Craps, at least if you are betting enough to make them "sweat."
p.s. One place that I do recall having heard about this happening,
is "Green Valley Ranch"
Lv
Thanks for the heads-up, Flash.
Is the additional heat rampant throughout, including the big strip properties, or is it more limited to the small downtown stores and such? Just the DD tables or big shoes too?
I'm trying to gauge how I may adjust my cover and play. Anyone else feel free to chime in.
Thanks for the heads-up, Flash.
Is the additional heat rampant throughout, including the big strip properties, or is it more limited to the small downtown stores and such? Just the DD tables or big shoes too?
I'm trying to gauge how I may adjust my cover and play. Anyone else feel free to chime in.